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Alex Cho

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  • Permitting Versus Testing: The High-Risk/High-Reward Stories Of Curis Resources And Excelsior Mining [View article]
    I'm stating that there's no asymmetrical risk to reward, that's all. It would have been nice if more emphasis was spent on the rate of recovery, operating expenditure per unit of mined copper, and a projected amount of revenue from depletion at mining site. With that you could make a much better forward looking assumption on the business rather than going through the effort of explaining everything about the mining site, you should have explained the most important components of a good mining company versus bad.

    In other words, tightly focus your research on growth rate, and what may impact it, that way we can understand the overall trajectory of the business.
    Apr 16 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Permitting Versus Testing: The High-Risk/High-Reward Stories Of Curis Resources And Excelsior Mining [View article]
    Hey Critical nice post on mining. However, there's some flaws in it.

    As mentioned, a fully permitted junior in FS stage with secured capex financing can be valued with a NPV multiplier of 0.7-0.8. As this is a novel ISR stand alone project with less testing and monitoring compared to Curis, additional caution is warranted so I would prefer 0.5. This results for the end of 2016 for the base case scenario in a market cap (copper at $2.75 and 47% recovery) of $824M x 0.5 = $412M + 95M -0M / 270M = , with an estimated target share price of $1.88 for a profit of 652%. With 60% recovery this results in a target share price of $1082M x 0.5 = $541M + 95M -0M / 270M = $2.36 for a profit of 842%.

    The problem is that with all natural resource companies, the amount of assets that are recorded are recorded at cost, and even if you were to factor in the pricing, the recovery rate is the real driver behind revenue growth. Anyone can measure the total revenue, and margin, but if the resources aren't being depleted and new mines aren't being formed at a fast enough of a rate the growth rate remains below par, and because the risk associated with mining is so high, investors tend to price basic material significantly lower than other sectors.
    Apr 15 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's Innovation May Trigger Revenue Growth [View article]
    Thanks, but don't forget that revenue growth is pretty important, because even if margins are improving there's always the risk that bottom line growth is coming from excessive cost cutting. In this very specific instance, strategic cost categories like R&D have been left the same. The good news is that the amount of money spent on R&D is fully sufficient to meet the needs of the business going forward. Also, IBM has been able to identify and execute on practical high margin business opportunities leaving me with the impression that the business should be able to grow earnings at a pretty high rate assuming revenue growth, margin improvements, and share buybacks. The three combined could put IBM back on a low to mid-teen EPS growth trajectory.
    Apr 11 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's Innovation May Trigger Revenue Growth [View article]
    Very interesting question, I will do some comprehensive research on that topic, and I'll see if I can come up with a case study. I appreciate the input!
    Apr 10 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    Flux, let me summarize something. Paid TV subscribers are not leaving in any meaningful quantities, and people are paying for a Netflix subscription in order to replace the DVD model. Want to watch a movie you've seen already, get Netflix. Netflix doesn't provide any live broadcast media, nor does it offer channel content at the point of release. It's basically a low-end TV service, that has better technological distribution.

    Also, Apple is in business to make money. Therefore, yes it makes sense to buyout Comcast, fire unnecessary employees (that includes top management), update the network, and get rid of cable TV, and instead offer a TV application for all devices rather than just a TV monitor. That way everyone in the world can finally watch Sunday night Football wherever they want, even if it means watching it on an airplane flight to Hong Kong. Not everyone in the United States wants to live life on a couch.

    Your discussion while sounding intelligent was opinionated as it did not offer any source information, and was just flat out inaccurate. So when you present your opinion, be sure to do it after doing a little more research, rather than presenting it to someone who's spent thousands of hours reviewing statistical, financial, and qualitative data on tech companies.
    Apr 7 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    Bjn, I completely agree. But there's only so much Apple can do to grow revenues through partnership and new products. A mounting cash pile has to be used somehow. Share buy-back is low hanging fruit, but M&A may be the next necessary step for Apple to accelerate its growth again. It's not the most common strategy for any company head, but at the present moment what other options does Apple have?
    Apr 7 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    Unfortunately there's hardly any synergy or value that Apple could offer to Walt Disney.
    Apr 7 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    Apple would be buying infrastructure, capital, and etc. I'm not saying it's easy, but it certainly would be different for employees to work under Apple.
    Apr 7 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    No, it's not as prevalent of a trend as you make it out to be.
    Apr 7 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    I wrote a research report on Google Fiber, no it's not anywhere near market saturation, but..... if Comcast gets lazy with network infrastructure it could get its lunch eaten by much bigger competitors.
    Apr 7 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    They're not overvalued, they operate in a closed market. None of the major tech companies can freely get licenses to operate a cable network. Look at Google Fiber, it has to work directly and closely with communities. It's not an easy process. Apple has the opportunity to buyout the largest cable network, and update the technology to fiber to the home. Take the digital content, and make it a web based service. There would be no need to complain about bandwidth shortages if Apple takes the initiative to convert 1/3rd of the United States to Gigabit internet. Heck it would be one of the greatest social contributions since the original internet.
    Apr 7 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    I've written enough articles on Apple that when assembled could become a book.
    Apr 7 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    No, I'm maintaining my position. Apple can't sit back and let Google dominate cable cutting with its Google Fiber service. Cable is one of the few remaining scalable business opportunities that Apple can take advantage of. Furthermore, the cable industry in general is heavily disliked due to the lack of selection and competition. A re-branding of Comcast to Apple, and upgrading pre-existing infrastructure would retain and build stronger customer satisfaction.

    Also, I've already done the math, for Apple's next upcoming product categories. Even in the best case scenario, the needle barely moves. So, Apple really needs to develop a two pronged strategy of major acquisitions and new product introductions. In this case, Apple has a reasonable chance of returning to being a high momentum business. But at the present moment, Apple is trading at a low valuation, because no one can imagine an Apple that sells low-end devices. But I do see Apple selling more services as that would not diminish the value of its brand.
    Apr 7 07:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chase The Bigger Tech Names, Especially If You Can't Handle Volatility [View article]
    Value, deep down I think you're a contrarian investor, which is fine. Best of luck on your journey.
    Apr 7 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chase The Bigger Tech Names, Especially If You Can't Handle Volatility [View article]
    Yeah, I'm not a pure value investor either. But... I know when it tends to work better and when it just flat out under-performs. I like the idea of trying to get more for your dollar, but in the end momentum is heavily dependent on being able to anticipate a change in performance and capitalizing on it in advance. Value tends to lean heavily for under-represented assets on the balance sheet, or assets that have not been used for their highest potential.
    Apr 7 03:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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