MasterCard Has Great Potential Beyond 2013 [View article]
Interesting, but I already conducted an 80 page research report on Visa for my Accounting Final, and it still came across after doing a peer to peer comparison against Master Card that Visa was both better-managed, more poised to grow, and have stronger hold in foreign markets.
Yeah I thought there was something weird, I honestly thought the business was non-cyclical. However whenever I see net income tank during the same period the economy crashed I usually attribute it to economic risk (believe it or not, most of the net income on fortune 500 stocks did take a hit throughout the period). That being the case I may have to re-submit that part.
Apollo Group: The Turnaround Story Of 2013 [View article]
Those are all qualitative factors and they're valid. But have already been built into the growth forecast. Those downside factors have been quantified which is why I assume it will take 5-years for the company to recover to net-income levels that are similar to 2005-06. Disasters are common occurrences in business, takes a while to recover, but it is likely that Apollo Group isn't ready to roll over on its back and die.
Apollo Group: The Turnaround Story Of 2013 [View article]
Yes, you have a valid point. I generally use technical analysis to observe short-term trends. Then use my price forecast to determine long-term price trends. It's pretty backward right. I know, but... every consideration was made when presenting my research. I thought of presenting long-term price charts. But often long-term price charts contradict, conflict, and make harder to present the short-term price action. That being the case, I also find technical analysis to be less effective over longer time frames.
You make a reasonable statement with the Nasdaq 100 index. Losing demand from index funds is definitely a negative catalyst. However, I believe investors will look to buy the stock based on the sound fundamentals. I'm putting a 5-year timer on the company, I expect it to return to the mean by then.
I don't make any guarantees though, I don't believe my analysis is flawless. I just try to present as objectively as possible my research. It works more often than fails, but by no means will it ever be a perfect future indicator. That being the case, I hope that my analysis is correct knowing that it may be flawed.
Apollo Group: The Turnaround Story Of 2013 [View article]
Being a growth investor/analyst isn't very easy. Because the yields are high, the volatility and beta is almost always higher. To be a growth analyst requires you to be extremely patient, let the markets slap you to death, then wait for the dust to settle so value and growth investors pile back onto the gravy train. I never signed up for an easy job. I know, but it's my style of investing, and I think it's better at generating returns over the long-term.
Apollo Group: The Turnaround Story Of 2013 [View article]
Sure, that's a valid argument. I agree markets can remain irrational for an extended period of time. But price without context is useless and is the biggest limiting factor behind pure technical analysis. In 2001 Apollo group had revenues that were far inferior and growth rates that were far higher, not a very fair comparison.
This reminds of a Harvard Business study that analyzed the performance of replicating the Head and Shoulder Pattern using a rigorous back testing formula. It turns out that the head and shoulder pattern alone is not a very accurate formula for determining price movement. Along with technical indicators context such as economic indicators should be used. For example in the Harvard research report they found that the head and shoulder decline formation worked particularly well... on the USD/JPY currency pair, however let's examine the context. Japan has been on a deflationary trend for 30 years straight, the context along with technical analysis is what matters. If I saw a break below a head and shoulder pattern along with CPI figures showing negative inflation figures, it would be a no brainer to sell USD/JPY. Likewise if both the fundamental and technical characteristics were negative for Apollo Group then obviously I would recommend shorting the stock as well. However technicals and fundamentals are misaligned, but markets eventually respond to intrinsic value measures.
Without context technical analysis serves no practical measure of prediction.
Apollo Group: The Turnaround Story Of 2013 [View article]
It is a little rough sailing. I mean it could be a value trap, but the street feels that the company is going to recover in earnings going forward. We can only cross our fingers, but I think Apollo group will grow going forward. I don't make any guarantees, and I've been slapped by the markets before. But, I'm going to step my foot in the sand and hope it doesn't sink.
MasterCard Has Great Potential Beyond 2013 [View article]
I think it's just a little expensive over the short-term. I believe the long-term is still great. A really great long-term growth opportunity lies underneath the MasterCard.
Einhorn And Buffett Are Right: General Motors Is A Great Buy [View article]
MasterCard Has Great Potential Beyond 2013 [View article]
MasterCard Has Great Potential Beyond 2013 [View article]
Yeah I thought there was something weird, I honestly thought the business was non-cyclical. However whenever I see net income tank during the same period the economy crashed I usually attribute it to economic risk (believe it or not, most of the net income on fortune 500 stocks did take a hit throughout the period). That being the case I may have to re-submit that part.
Apollo Group: The Turnaround Story Of 2013 [View article]
MasterCard Has Great Potential Beyond 2013 [View article]
Apollo Group: The Turnaround Story Of 2013 [View article]
Apollo Group: The Turnaround Story Of 2013 [View article]
You make a reasonable statement with the Nasdaq 100 index. Losing demand from index funds is definitely a negative catalyst. However, I believe investors will look to buy the stock based on the sound fundamentals. I'm putting a 5-year timer on the company, I expect it to return to the mean by then.
I don't make any guarantees though, I don't believe my analysis is flawless. I just try to present as objectively as possible my research. It works more often than fails, but by no means will it ever be a perfect future indicator. That being the case, I hope that my analysis is correct knowing that it may be flawed.
Apollo Group: The Turnaround Story Of 2013 [View article]
Apollo Group: The Turnaround Story Of 2013 [View article]
This reminds of a Harvard Business study that analyzed the performance of replicating the Head and Shoulder Pattern using a rigorous back testing formula. It turns out that the head and shoulder pattern alone is not a very accurate formula for determining price movement. Along with technical indicators context such as economic indicators should be used. For example in the Harvard research report they found that the head and shoulder decline formation worked particularly well... on the USD/JPY currency pair, however let's examine the context. Japan has been on a deflationary trend for 30 years straight, the context along with technical analysis is what matters. If I saw a break below a head and shoulder pattern along with CPI figures showing negative inflation figures, it would be a no brainer to sell USD/JPY. Likewise if both the fundamental and technical characteristics were negative for Apollo Group then obviously I would recommend shorting the stock as well. However technicals and fundamentals are misaligned, but markets eventually respond to intrinsic value measures.
Without context technical analysis serves no practical measure of prediction.
Apollo Group: The Turnaround Story Of 2013 [View article]
MasterCard Has Great Potential Beyond 2013 [View article]
Apollo Group: The Turnaround Story Of 2013 [View article]
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