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Alex Cho

 
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  • Avoid The Candy Crush IPO: It's Just Another Cash-Out Party [View article]
    The problem I have is the rapid growth between 2012 and 2013. I can't say it's sustainable unless we have more conclusive information.
    Mar 4 02:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid The Candy Crush IPO: It's Just Another Cash-Out Party [View article]
    There's hardly any e-mail subscribers at the present moment, so whatever title used wouldn't have been able to attract a large audience. But I have to admit that title is pretty catchy.
    Mar 3 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Is Too Heavily Diversified To Be Impacted By Falling OS Revenue [View article]
    Well, I'm isolating Windows sales to OEMs. Which is a part of the Windows division, and 60% of that segment sales is estimated to be a part of Windows licensing revenue with the remaining revenue computer peripherals and Windows Surface tablets.
    Mar 2 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems' Guidance Exceeds Estimates: Further Upside Ahead [View article]
    Thank you for the high quality dialogue everyone. I appreciate every bit of time you all put into writing well-thought-out responses to my article.
    Mar 2 03:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reversion To The Mean Phenomenon: Part III [View article]
    Larry this article was absolutely fantastic. I'm noticing a consistency in your writing, with a flair for unique content. In fact it changed my previous assumptions on mean value, thanks.
    Feb 26 05:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Owes Its Shareholders An Explanation [View article]
    Hey, great commentary on Intel's woes. Over the longhaul, I saw another article on the topic of Moore's law and how Intel should be able to lead and retain share using processes that could take tons of capex to reach. Care to comment?
    Feb 26 04:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Many Winners With WhatsApp Deal [View article]
    Bill, very solid analysis. Liked how you touched on the benefits other companies could experience, very unique take. Look forward to seeing more of your work syndicated.
    Feb 26 04:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Buyout Of WhatsApp Offers Asymmetrical Risk To Reward [View article]
    "If it's all about price" to access the app you need a data plan, to get a data plan you need to buy SMS and voice plan. Therefore, if we were to defer to logic, WhatsApp is not used to avoid paying for SMS.

    Now if consumers really want to lower their telco bills they need to jump on low cost carriers like Boost Mobile, or Virgin Network. But those discount networks have low market share, which indicates that consumers in general aren't very sensitive to the pricing of their mobile plan. Not in any meaningful way.
    Feb 26 04:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Buyout Of WhatsApp Offers Asymmetrical Risk To Reward [View article]
    Well no one thought Facebook would almost fully saturate the United States back in 2005.
    Feb 26 04:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Buyout Of WhatsApp Offers Asymmetrical Risk To Reward [View article]
    But wait a second religious. That's the point! This could be the product that almost everyone in the world pays for.
    Feb 26 04:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Buyout Of WhatsApp Offers Asymmetrical Risk To Reward [View article]
    fxfx, communication has value. It's just in a different format, packaged differently, and marketed differently. Some of these people in the emerging world inevitably buy a communication device, and move up the socioeconomic ladder by buying products and services that are even more income elastic. We start with necessities and move up. From the bottom its food, then real estate, following that energy, and communication. Somewhere in that order.

    I'm saying $1 a year is feasible in emerging markets in other words. Facebook is generating half off that with ads (from rest of world), and ads are much more sensitive to pricing than communication services.

    I will offer a much more thorough analysis in my next article.
    Feb 26 04:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Buyout Of WhatsApp Offers Asymmetrical Risk To Reward [View article]
    *ehem* It's Mr. Cho by the way.
    Feb 26 04:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Buyout Of WhatsApp Offers Asymmetrical Risk To Reward [View article]
    $25 billion in sales isn't bad. Again, WhatsApp need to enlarge its network, and gradually increase pricing over time. We'll understand the demand elasticities as we go long. But at its current growth trajectory, there's no way in heck 0 users is a likely outcome. In fact, WhatsApp hasn't reported declining user figure for the past four years. If you were to bet against the app for the previous four year period, you would have lost every year. Now try putting on a short in that time frame. In the beginning it looks like any pump and dump tech name. But as time goes on, it keeps compounding users at a high rate, and it eventually gets bought out at what seems like a high valuation.

    I would know, I use to be the guy who tried to sell short high P/E ratio names. Later I learned, that the only way a high P/E ratio name falls in value is when whatever future expected outcome investors had on the company doesn't materialize. By identifying how you the investor can lose money, I'm also able to understand the conditions you the investor also makes money. In this specific case, my goal is to identify a trend that exceeds the current expectation, and actually occurs. Therefore, leading you the investor to make more money on expectations that are currently not factored into the future value of the stock. By doing this, we increase the odds of success, and are able to avoid missing out on good investment opportunities.
    Feb 26 04:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Buyout Of WhatsApp Offers Asymmetrical Risk To Reward [View article]
    Yes, but that moat is quickly being contested by Amazon. Granted IBM is developing a lot of business to business applications that have market potential to overcome the obstacles of a dying data center/hardware business.
    Feb 26 04:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Buyout Of WhatsApp Offers Asymmetrical Risk To Reward [View article]
    In the future, if in the case WhatsApp continues at its current growth trajectory, the value on that future stock will go up based on a confirmation of its historical trend. Therefore your entry point is now, when the stock is priced less, or more when it's valued at more, based on more potential. That's the way markets work, hence everything trades at a premium on the assumption that earnings will continue to be generated. This is why a stock trades at 15 times earnings, because we expect a certain pay-off, when factoring in growth that will be sooner than 15 years. It's not hard to imagine, that a company that could double the growth of a 15 P/E stock meriting a higher valuation.

    If we sit back too long we miss it. If we hang on to long, the rocket runs out of fuel and sinks back to earth. The stock market is a tough environment, that's for sure.
    Feb 26 04:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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