Alex Filonov

The Market Is Looking for Direction

And I would fully agree with you. With one small exception: by the end of May, market became grossly overbought. After that it was trading mostly on sentiment (it was so bearish!) and on buying panic in 3rd quarter.

Now fundamentals are still crappy but slightly improving, technicals all contradict each other and sentiment is bullish. My crystal ball is murky...

On Nov 10 05:46 PM Old Trader wrote:

> Alex,
>
> I'd suggest that things are in a state of flux because while fundamentals
> are still pretty much lousy, the technicals are now increasingly
> muddled. At least during the earlier stages of the current run, it
> COULD have been argued that while the fundamentals were bad, technically,
> the market had become oversold. That is no longer the case,, leaving
> dollar weakness (aka "liquidity") as the sole possible prop for the
> market.

The Market Is Looking for Direction

Sometimes it's more like migrating lemmings...


On Nov 10 01:32 PM chris coonan wrote:

> Your title suggests that the market is a flock of sheep....profound....

Dethroning Google: Competition for the King

Who cares about Murdoch? Google is the king of advertising. If Fox isn't on Google, it's like he doesn't exist in the 'net.

More GM-Magna Fallout: What Russia Will Have to Learn

GM needs Opel because small and midsize car design has been done there. Other than that, Opel is a mess. Worst European auto company by far.
Putin's reaction is strange. Formally speaking, Sberbank was supposed to be a minority owner, and Magna is not a Russian company. There was something going on under this deal. I'm not sure shadow dealings were the main reason GM scrapped the deal, but they definitely were a factor.

A Global Problem with No Solution

How about a bigger global problem? Consumption in the most countries is at much lower level than in US. If other countries aren't going to pick up on consumption, who is going to buy all this stuff made? In other words, if consumption isn't going to grow in the world, economy is going to stay in the slump.

10.2%

Sure you can raise rates when unemployment is above 10%. You can also commit suicide. Sane people usually do neither.

4 Possible Market Scenarios, Updated

No, bullish in the long term. Recession, especially (possibly) ending recession is a great time to buy. Even Great depression was a great time to buy starting 1932. The bearish scenarios are inflation and Japanese, 20%.


On Nov 05 05:51 PM gettingfeetwet wrote:

> I don't understand how you are bullish if 80 percent of your observation
> points towards a negative economy? Are you just bullish in the short
> term?

4 Possible Market Scenarios, Updated

Yes, 1932 scenario. No, I don't see debased currency, I see deflation, not inflation so far. Yes, I'm diversified a little bit in Europe and emerging markets as a hedge.


On Nov 05 03:12 PM jratl wrote:

> Bullish stance with 45% great recession probability. I assume this
> is based on a repeat of the 1932 scenario. Is the bull market a
> reaction to debasing the currency? Do you anticipate domestic equity
> values to exceed the devalued currency or are you looking at emerging
> markets to hedge against a falling domestic currency?

U.S. in Worse Shape than Japan Was

High savings rate and low consumption is a problem for Japan, not a virtue. Japan can't export its way out of the problems anymore, so for economy to run, they need to consume what they can produce.
Economy in developed countries is consumption driven. US doesn't have problems with it, Japan does.

The Demise of Japan as an Economic Power?

Maybe Japan is waking up now? Last elections result means something, IMHO.

Not the right time for Champagne : our Global Macro scenario for 2010

How dollar carry trade and its potential unwinding fit into this scenario?

Building Boring Nationalized Companies

Problem with Opel: it's by far is the worst European auto company (if you don't count the Russians). On the other hand, I agree, GM doesn't have anything else in Europe and small and midsize car design was done by Opel last 20 years.

Why the IMF's Indian Gold Sale Matters

Problem is, open market is, essentially, a paper market. Price of gold for at least couple of years doesn't depend on physical gold movement, it depends on supply and demand of future contracts.

Chinese Railways and Speculating Pig Farmers

This is so much like Japan in 1980s!

Estimate Revisions and 'The Earnings Season Racket'

I would more agree with Doug Kass: earnings management reached new heights lately. I'm not even looking at profits this quarter. Top line beats deserve respect, bottom line, not so much.