Stock is down from the point I bought it. I'm still not sure if I want to increase position. Not sure about bidding against Cramer. Sometimes his calls are good, sometimes bad, but overall he made me a lot of money.
ARM Holdings: The Real Reason That It Ends Badly [View article]
Several problems with the analysis:
1. There is almost no competition in mobile CPU market. ARMH just owns it. Switching to a different CPU is much, much more complex than author thinks. 2. Intel has nothing for mobile market, yet. Bigger problem: i86 architecture (so-called CICS, or complete instruction set) by design is less energy efficient than RISC (reduced instruction set). ARM chips are RISC. 3. It doesn't matter who produces ARM-based chips. They are all paying license fees.
VmWare didn't lose the leading position. Not in commercial virtualization software. The problem is: enterprise is moving mostly to external clouds, and VmWare was used mostly in internal ones. Big cloud providers either use OpenStack (open source software) or some proprietary stuff.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
> The US$ is going to cease to exist (have any value). It's already lost 96% of it's value in the past 100 years.
So what? Are people worse off than 100 years ago? I think they are much better off. I don't care about value of currency, I care about quality of life.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
> Upon resumption, its $600 billion federal debt is projected to be retired in 2040
I don't think I will live in 2040. And even if I will, I wouldn't care about any currency, US, Candada's or otherwise.
Canada didn't have inflation close to 0% in 1993, US had deflation in 2009, zero inflation in 2010 and inflation below 2% in 2011 and 2012. Makes critical difference. Deflation = depression. You want to live in depression? I don't.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
Standard definition of hyperinflation: inflation over 50% a month for three or more months.
RIght now, fiscal conservatives are either crooks or idiots. Crooks want their fixed income to increase in value, without care what it does to economy. Idiots think that hard money is a cure for everything (they still think that Hayek was right and Great Depression didn't really happen). Reality is, modern economy doesn't work when inflation is below 2% for any extended period of time (think Japan).
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
To Michael Williams:
My initial comment was "you can't have hyperinflation without wage inflation". So far I don't see any proof (in your responses or any links) of the opposite view. In 1923 in Germany hyperinflation (by most definition, price growth 50% a month or more) coincided with wage inflation. If you have other examples, I'm ready to discuss them. I want to see specific examples when hyperinflation (again, 50% a month) did not match wage inflation.
Sorry, I don't have time for long protracted discussion on this topic. Obviously we have different views on money, it's relation with economy etc. But it's not the topic of the article or discussion.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
> How you connect the France occupation to strikes to wage increases as the cause which created the "goal" of "hyperinflation" is a rather radical interpretation of events as to the cause.
Goal of hyperinflation was there. Government didn't have any other means to pay off war bonds. Everything else is well known and you can read it here: http://bit.ly/XD8wVP
As for "game over", you are wrong. I don't know of any government which fell because of hyperinflation. Usually hyperinflation happens in failed states, so game was over before it.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
To Michael Williams
Yes, I know about Weimar Republic.
Inflation became hyper when France occupied Ruhr and government of Germany encouraged strikes and passive resistance of workers, which lead to massive wage increases (December 1922). Through 1923 wages matched price increases daily, sometimes several times a day. Of course, printing a lot of money, government guarantee of credit and promissory notes helped a lot. Mainly, don't forget, hyperinflation was the goal of the government.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
> Wage inflation does not match price inflation.
On a small scale (below 3%) true. But high inflation is impossible without wage inflation. Actually, all known hyperinflation cases (Germany and USSR in 1923, multiple examples in Latin America, Zimbabwe) started with sharp wage increases. Never mind that all countries in question were really failed states. Of course, Germany 1923 is a special case, because government intentionally created hyperinflation to make war bonds worthless. Even there wage inflation came first.
Actually, if not for the Fed, we'd have deflation now. Together with another Great Depression.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
Hyperinflation is impossible without wage inflation. When I see average wages grow 10% a month, I can start worrying. Not now, when they barely grow 1% a year.
Because obviously author(s) long gold, they want everybody to buy it, either to increase value of their portfolios or to liquidate some (maybe all) holdings. Good luck with it!
No, I don't have any opinion on gold. Price depends in the short term on speculators, in the long term on buying from China and India. No idea how that would turn out.
Disclosure: I don't have any position in any gold-related securities or gold miners.
Intel is not has been. The company will survive for decades and will continue to be on the edge of technology. The stock is completely different matter. I don't see much growth in future. PC growth is a thing of the past. Servers are moving from corporate space to the cloud, and how that will work nobody knows. I marked my INTC position for sale.
Into Shipping [View instapost]
Not sure about bidding against Cramer. Sometimes his calls are good, sometimes bad, but overall he made me a lot of money.
ARM Holdings: The Real Reason That It Ends Badly [View article]
1. There is almost no competition in mobile CPU market. ARMH just owns it. Switching to a different CPU is much, much more complex than author thinks.
2. Intel has nothing for mobile market, yet. Bigger problem: i86 architecture (so-called CICS, or complete instruction set) by design is less energy efficient than RISC (reduced instruction set). ARM chips are RISC.
3. It doesn't matter who produces ARM-based chips. They are all paying license fees.
Disclosure: I'm long ARMH.
Closing VmWare: Darkened Clouds [View instapost]
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
So what? Are people worse off than 100 years ago? I think they are much better off. I don't care about value of currency, I care about quality of life.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
I don't think I will live in 2040. And even if I will, I wouldn't care about any currency, US, Candada's or otherwise.
Canada didn't have inflation close to 0% in 1993, US had deflation in 2009, zero inflation in 2010 and inflation below 2% in 2011 and 2012. Makes critical difference. Deflation = depression. You want to live in depression? I don't.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
Dunno, only time will tell. But because he is a politician, he's more likely crook than idiot. Crook trying seduce idiots.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
RIght now, fiscal conservatives are either crooks or idiots. Crooks want their fixed income to increase in value, without care what it does to economy. Idiots think that hard money is a cure for everything (they still think that Hayek was right and Great Depression didn't really happen). Reality is, modern economy doesn't work when inflation is below 2% for any extended period of time (think Japan).
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
My initial comment was "you can't have hyperinflation without wage inflation". So far I don't see any proof (in your responses or any links) of the opposite view. In 1923 in Germany hyperinflation (by most definition, price growth 50% a month or more) coincided with wage inflation. If you have other examples, I'm ready to discuss them. I want to see specific examples when hyperinflation (again, 50% a month) did not match wage inflation.
Sorry, I don't have time for long protracted discussion on this topic. Obviously we have different views on money, it's relation with economy etc. But it's not the topic of the article or discussion.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
Goal of hyperinflation was there. Government didn't have any other means to pay off war bonds. Everything else is well known and you can read it here: http://bit.ly/XD8wVP
As for "game over", you are wrong. I don't know of any government which fell because of hyperinflation. Usually hyperinflation happens in failed states, so game was over before it.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
Yes, I know about Weimar Republic.
Inflation became hyper when France occupied Ruhr and government of Germany encouraged strikes and passive resistance of workers, which lead to massive wage increases (December 1922). Through 1923 wages matched price increases daily, sometimes several times a day. Of course, printing a lot of money, government guarantee of credit and promissory notes helped a lot. Mainly, don't forget, hyperinflation was the goal of the government.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
On a small scale (below 3%) true. But high inflation is impossible without wage inflation. Actually, all known hyperinflation cases (Germany and USSR in 1923, multiple examples in Latin America, Zimbabwe) started with sharp wage increases. Never mind that all countries in question were really failed states. Of course, Germany 1923 is a special case, because government intentionally created hyperinflation to make war bonds worthless. Even there wage inflation came first.
Actually, if not for the Fed, we'd have deflation now. Together with another Great Depression.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
Because obviously author(s) long gold, they want everybody to buy it, either to increase value of their portfolios or to liquidate some (maybe all) holdings. Good luck with it!
Changing Trends [View instapost]
Disclosure: I don't have any position in any gold-related securities or gold miners.
Initial Jobless Claims: -27K to 341K vs. 360K consensus, 368K prior (revised). Continuing claims -130K to 3.11M. [View news story]
Unfortunately. Beats watching baseball.
Intel: Enough Of The Nonsense [View article]
The stock is completely different matter. I don't see much growth in future. PC growth is a thing of the past. Servers are moving from corporate space to the cloud, and how that will work nobody knows.
I marked my INTC position for sale.