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Alex Filonov

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  • What Happens To Dividend Growth Investing When Inflation Hits 10% [View article]
    Good research, but not related to reality. The right question now is "What happens when deflation hits?". You don't want to know the answer, it's ugly.
    Feb 5 09:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Barry Ritholtz Is Wrong About Gold [View article]
    My last comment on this article:

    People, you are all wrong! Both gold bugs and gold haters. The main factor defining price of gold is India. Country imports between 25 and 35% of gold production. Every year. Last year, gold crashed after Indian government sharply increased gold import duties.
    That's the main reason I stay away from gold market. I have no idea how Indian gold market is going to change in future and what government policy would be. Everything else doesn't matter much. Yes, China imports a lot of gold. Much less than India though. Yes, ETFs (especially GLD) affect gold market a lot. Yes, rumors of hyperinflation were factored in. But long term, nothing can compete with India's appetite (or lack thereof) for gold.
    In short, gold is a commodity. It's main value is presumed value, in fact, value assigned by people, as "real" money. Industrial and jewellery use of gold is way below half of production (don't kid yourself, what they call gold jewellery in most of Asia, including India, is in reality slightly decorated gold bullion, used to store capital). And as any commodity, gold can experience sharp changes in price either way. Influenced in this case by factors beyond our knowledge.
    Jan 14 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Barry Ritholtz Is Wrong About Gold [View article]
    Doug,

    One thing is what IRS thinks, quite another is what you really have. Doesn't matter what is the status of account, your current capital is worth of your holdings minus liquidation costs. That's money you can have right now. Nobody cares what was the buying price. Nobody knows what would be price in the future. Your capital standing is what you have NOW. BTW, your brokerage thinks the same way, they calculate margin based on current prices.
    Jan 14 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Barry Ritholtz Is Wrong About Gold [View article]
    To Interesting Times:

    > If you haven't sold then you haven't lost anything !!

    That's the biggest fallacy in investment/trading. It doesn't matter if you sold or not. Your portfolio worth is current market worth of positions minus possible selling expenses (slippage, fees etc.). Your losses are never "paper losses", they are real. Your gains are not "paper gains" either, they are real. You may hope your position will go up, but hope is never investment strategy.
    Jan 14 11:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airbus Vs. Boeing: Who Has The Airplane Of The Future? [View article]
    Good, thoughtful article. There is only one problem with it: Airbus gets most of money from A320 family, and Boeing, from 737. Both companies have orders for at least 8 years of production, so both are probably good investments. Valuations are high, but look justified.
    Disclaimer: I am planning to buy Airbus and possibly Boeing shares.
    Jan 13 12:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Barry Ritholtz Is Wrong About Gold [View article]
    To John Wilson.

    I usually stay away from religious disputes. And yes, gold is a religion, at least for those who keeps big part of their money in it.
    Just couple of points.
    1. Gold is a metal. As such it's a standard. Of itself. The price of gold is defined by people. Market is a place of people relationships. Today people decided, through multiple interactions, that gold cost 1200+ dollars. What they would decide tomorrow, nobody knows. Don't kid yourself, you don't know either. Comes 2015, gold price might be 2500, or 500. I don't care, I don't own any.
    2. Vladimir Putin is not my leader. I am US citizen. And, BTW, Russia keeps most of foreign reserves in US Treasuries (are you surprised? I'm not).
    Jan 13 11:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blameless BlackRock [View article]
    How do you know what SAE used in algorithms? And how? You are repeating what they are telling, not what really there. Quants are too big on the market as it is, and if they get an advantage (even 5%) over everybody else, we lose.
    Jan 12 10:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Barry Ritholtz Is Wrong About Gold [View article]
    Ritholtz is hands-on money manager, Salmon is a journalist. Who do you trust on the market?
    P.6. There is no difference between trade and investment beside time horizon. Anybody who thinks otherwise is an idiot and is going to lose a lot of money.
    P.7. Yes, Barry is right. You should reduce your biggest holding at many points. Especially if it exceeds 20% of holdings.
    P.8. It's not market timing. It's common sense. You don't buy a commodity after several years bull run. And yes, gold is a commodity, nothing else.
    P.9. Ritholtz, hedge fund manager, doesn't understand concept of a hedge? Come on!
    Jan 12 10:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Closing FIAT: Declaring Victory [View instapost]
    Yes, of course I will buy back if it goes low enough.
    Jan 3 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Year! What Next? [View instapost]
    Well, it's your money, your risk. I wouldn't go to Brazil, or any emerging market. And I would never buy Gazprom, because it's not a private company, in reality it's a part of Russian government.
    Jan 1 02:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: The Netscape Navigator Of 2014 [View article]
    There is a full fledged rival: Amazon (AMZN). More movies, also quality is just a little bit worse than Netflix. And top movies are available couple of weeks after box office release.
    Nov 27 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Austrians Are Right - Inflation Is Coming [View article]
    Author forgot about money velocity. Which makes the whole article complete and utter nonsense. If money mass is growing and velocity is falling proportionally, no inflation. I know, Austrian school dismisses money velocity, that's why it doesn't make any sense. Five years of money mass growth with little or no inflation, how much more proof do you want? OK, Japan: 23 years.
    Nov 26 09:57 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Unloved And Undervalued [View article]
    IBM might reinvent itself. Again. Maybe. But so far, the future doesn't look good. Free cash flow is down. What does it mean? Oh yeah, dividend growth can't continue if free cash flow is not growing.
    Most of IBM revenue comes from services. In short, IBM manages (completely or partially) IT infrastructure of companies. There is some competition here, like Microsoft, Oracle, etc. Not many companies are happy with IBM services, but competition is usually worse (in case of MSFT, it's just awful). So companies are moving to clouds. Would they trust IBM in cloud space if they didn't trust much in their own IT center? I doubt it. And competition in cloud is much stronger: first of all, it's Amazon and Google.
    As for big data, don't know. But it's not a big source of revenue and doesn't look like replacing losses in services any time soon.

    Disclosure: I am long GOOG and don't have any positions in other stocks mentioned.
    Nov 5 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat On ARM Holdings [View article]
    My respect. We all are getting something wrong, the main thing is to recognize it.

    Disclosure: long $ARMH
    Oct 31 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The U.S. Suffer Japanese Lost Decades? [View article]
    Nothing new for me, unfortunately. There are two reasons for current state of events in developed world. Both are political.
    1. A lot of people, most of all retirees, are living on fixed income. They are interested in deflation, which increases their real income and don't care (or don't want to know) that deflation destroys economy.
    2. Total ignorance of population, politicians and business people in how economy really works. You get such idiots like Paul Ryan prescribing austerity and high interest rates, which are great tools for creating total disaster right now. Sure, such prescriptions, if implemented, would result in Ryan and his comrades voted out in tar and feathers, but first they would return us to Great Depression 2.0.

    In short, Japanese type stagnation is not the worst kind of outcome. Let's get ready to live with it for a while.
    Oct 27 01:02 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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