Alex Filonov

Building Boring Nationalized Companies

Problem with Opel: it's by far is the worst European auto company (if you don't count the Russians). On the other hand, I agree, GM doesn't have anything else in Europe and small and midsize car design was done by Opel last 20 years.

Why the IMF's Indian Gold Sale Matters

Problem is, open market is, essentially, a paper market. Price of gold for at least couple of years doesn't depend on physical gold movement, it depends on supply and demand of future contracts.

Chinese Railways and Speculating Pig Farmers

This is so much like Japan in 1980s!

Estimate Revisions and 'The Earnings Season Racket'

I would more agree with Doug Kass: earnings management reached new heights lately. I'm not even looking at profits this quarter. Top line beats deserve respect, bottom line, not so much.

How to Avoid the Next Galleon Group (or Madoff)

The problem is, as far as I know, many people invested in Madoff's fund because they thought he had insider information. I woudn't be surprised if majority of hedge fund investors think the same way.

A quick U.S. withdrawal from stimulus likely means repeating Japan's mistakes and causing a "lost decade," says Richard Koo of Nomura Research. "This isn’t a cold, its more like pneumonia," Koo says, expecting "three to five years to get out of this mess, even under the best of circumstances."

Exactly my thoughts.

The Secret Paulson-Goldman Meeting

Government of, for and by Goldman Sachs?

Three Ways to Make Money Fast

Judging by big (4+ percent) moves in small caps and midcaps with no news, with news coming several days later, Galleon is just a tip of an iceberg.

Now We're Really Due for a Pullback

Apology: Todd Harrison is still bearish, I misread his post on Saturday.

About Doug Kass: he called generational low in March (I agree with him here), but for the last couple months he is calling a pullback and weak market after that.

Now We're Really Due for a Pullback

Thank you for your comments.

To David Van Knapp: Sentiment I'm looking at is investment sentiment. I have my own unscientific gauge: number of bulls vs number of bears on CNBC.

For those who looks for real data supporting my thoughts: if stock market was always moved by real data, everybody would've made a fortune. Doesn't work this way. I'm trying to look at shifting picture with shifting goalposts and make some predictions to make myself some money.

Yes, I know: "Never make predictions, especially about the future". It's quite probable that I'm wrong.

Why Deflation Makes for Ugly Headlines

The main problem with deflation is credit. Business lives on credit, and if businesses are forced to pay back in more expensive dollars than they are borrowing, they suffer. Deflation is good for creditors and bad for borrowers.

Naked-Shorting Datapoint of the Day, Carl Icahn Edition

Naked short selling of Treasuries is not against the law or any rules. Probably the same is true for corporate debt, unless it's traded on stock exchange.

To Tony Petroski: short selling is selling something you don't have, by definition. You might (and, in case of stock, have to) borrow this something before selling, but you don't own it.

Debunking the 'Too Big to Fail' Myth Once and for All

Sure, if they are too big to fail, make them smaller. Let FDIC to set max size of US operations of any bank, as measured by provided credit. It won't solve all problems (nothing will), but it will kill monsters.

Natural Gas from Shale: Old News

Thanks everybody for comments.

There is some misunderstanding of the gas agreement between Russia and China:

1. It's mostly a declaration now, government didn't agree on the most important point: price.
2. Russia would need to build a huge new pipeline through one of the worst terrains in the world. Whatever obstacles you can imagine: mountains, big rivers, swamps, permafrost, are there. Cost is huge.
3. Even when built, this pipeline would carry something in order of 5% of the Russian gas export to Europe.

In short, Russia, of course, wants to sell as much as possible of natural gas to China. But in the nearest future it's not that much.

8 Foreign ETFs with Attractive Year-End Distributions

Past distributions are not guaranteed in future. And Ron Rowland is absolutely right: NAV, and price, drop the same amount as the distribution. For CEFs, you can play it if CEF provides for dividend reinvestment, you can buy at the drop and sell a little bit later, when fund buys own shares for DRIPs. No such luck for ETFs.