Alex Filonov

Cramer Plugs Insana: Seems There's Also a Bull Market in Bull

Well, not long ago Cramer also endorsed "Nails" Dykstra, who claimed insane returns using deep in-money options. Now Dykstra declared bankruptcy, and Jim is suspiciously silent on the topic.
I wrote many times that listening to Cramer can make you money. He himself is a good picker. But his endorsements are sloppy, often wrong and sometimes border on criminal, like above mentioned.

Don't Get Distracted By Premature Top Calls: 4 Reasons We're Heading Higher

Couple of points:

I don't see recovery yet. All I can see is, as Doug Kass put it, second derivative recovery, i.e. things are getting worse slower.

"Do you want to be a buyer or a seller in the early stages of recovery?"
The answer is obvious. Less obvious would be answer to the question "Do you want to be a buyer or seller in the last stages of crisis?" My answer is "Yes".

We might see stock market grow even without recovery. Just take a look at 1932-1933 chart.

No Great Depression Redux

I'd probably believed, if not for Japan's experience.
Politicians are the people which can and will repeat mistakes.

Keep Bernanke as Fed Chairman?

Yes!

When Insolvent Banks Are Worth Billions

Debt markets are bigger than stock market. If they don't come back, forget about stocks.
Of course, if debt market don't come back, banks are doomed. They are making money on loans, there is no other income sources for them.

America's Doomed Small Newspapers

Depends on your definition of small. Once I moved in my current area, I started receiving two local papers for free. I think free distribution model for local papers might work. But if you are talking about papers serving big areas, metro areas for example, their future is dim unless they can switch to different business model.

Will the Efficient Markets Hypothesis Survive This Crisis?

Barry Ritholtz proposed in his blog a parallel universe where exists Deficient Market Hypothesis.

Paying for News: Let's Get On with It

These experiments are going on since 1995. NY Times was free, then non-free, now free again. FT was free, non-free, free, now non-free. I can probably remember a dozen examples if I try.

The main problem with paid content: last 50 years press lived on advertizing. Price barely covered distribution costs and didn't cover delivery cost to subscribers. Subscription was the Number, which told advertizers how much audience they have. Now distribution cost is negligible, audience can be reliably counted on the Net, what's the problem? Can't compete with Yahoo News? Why would I care? Can't afford costs of paper publishing? Better for environment.

Newspapers are going to die. They just can't switch to the Web, it's completely different business model.

Doug Kass Leans Against the Market

I missed upside twice this year because I believed Dougie. That said, his analysis is excellent, everything he wrote is exactly correct. Rationally, market should follow his predictions. Unfortunately, rational market exists only in minds of some economists.

We are in buying panic. Great time for quick speculation, rotten time for long term investing.

The Fallacy of 'Money on the Sidelines'

Wrong take. The only thing which matter: how much big funds keep in cash? This is money on the sidelines. This is the money which matters on Wall Street.

IMF: U.S. Recovery Will Be Gradual

The question is, who has better tea leaves, IMF or US Government? My take, neither. We are truly in uncharted waters, kinda like Great Depression, but greatly accelerated.

An iTunes Subscription Could Subsidize the Apple Tablet

Shoulda, woulda, coulda...

First of all, product is not out of the door yet (iTouch, I mean). Second, even Apple had its share of flops (Cube, Apple TV). We'll see when it's out.
And be careful out there. Apple fans enthusiasm exceeds that one of Microsoft fans in the end of 1990s. Remember what happened to MSFT stock after that?
Investment should be done with cool (better yet, cold) head.

Microsoft-Yahoo Deal: Highlights and Analysis

10 years! I wonder if both Yahoo! and Microsoft will exist in 2019.

Why Microsoft and Apple's Market Caps Should Be Reversed

1. There is no proof it was right or wrong. We'll see a year from now.

2. I write when I feel like that. Any problem with it?


On Jul 27 12:04 PM brewer wrote:

> Alex,
>
> Why do you bother commenting on Apple now? We read your past blog
> article, it was wrong. What makes you think you are right this time?

Why Microsoft and Apple's Market Caps Should Be Reversed

Agree with almost everything. The only problem here: you are looking back. Future prospects for Apple are much better than for MSFT, true, but it's hard to expect current growth rate continue.