Alex Filonov

It's a Large World After All

Actually, this information tells us that markets are efficient: they provide people with product they want (iPhone with wifi).

How to Avoid the Next Galleon Group (or Madoff)

The problem is, as far as I know, many people invested in Madoff's fund because they thought he had insider information. I woudn't be surprised if majority of hedge fund investors think the same way.

An iTunes Subscription Could Subsidize the Apple Tablet

Shoulda, woulda, coulda...

First of all, product is not out of the door yet (iTouch, I mean). Second, even Apple had its share of flops (Cube, Apple TV). We'll see when it's out.
And be careful out there. Apple fans enthusiasm exceeds that one of Microsoft fans in the end of 1990s. Remember what happened to MSFT stock after that?
Investment should be done with cool (better yet, cold) head.

Why Microsoft and Apple's Market Caps Should Be Reversed

1. There is no proof it was right or wrong. We'll see a year from now.

2. I write when I feel like that. Any problem with it?


On Jul 27 12:04 PM brewer wrote:

> Alex,
>
> Why do you bother commenting on Apple now? We read your past blog
> article, it was wrong. What makes you think you are right this time?

Why Microsoft and Apple's Market Caps Should Be Reversed

Agree with almost everything. The only problem here: you are looking back. Future prospects for Apple are much better than for MSFT, true, but it's hard to expect current growth rate continue.

Bye Bye Apple

Thanks everybody for comments. Especially if you disagree with me, makes me try to write better.

Answering to some of them in no particular order:

They can't fire me from financial analysis industry, I am IT specialist (it's in my profile, BTW).

Apple is a great company, but company and stock are different things.

It's quite possible that there is a lot of money to be still made on Apple stock, but risk, as I perceive it, is too high. I always claim the right to be wrong.

I bought Apple in 1999-2000, when almost nobody believed in company. I pocketed around 1200% at average.

Last, but not least: I always tried to zig when everybody zags, and the fact that majority of comments are in support of Apple (and, I assume, already bought stock), confirms that selling now is a good decision.

Again, I claim the right to be wrong.

Blodget Blasts Ballmer: 'Face Reality'

Yahoo won't pay for MSN. It won't take it for free. If Microsoft to outsource MSN to Yahoo!, they'll have to pay. Billions.

As for MSFT management, company is managed by control freaks. Maybe real managers can do something about it, but I'm not sure.

A Nice New Zune, But Microsoft Has Lost This Market

Microsoft haven't lost the market. It never had a chance to get a share of it. Not with MSFT attitude.

Apple Is Still Apple Even without Steve Jobs

I wish you were right. Unfortunately, last time Jobs left Apple (1985), it was a total disaster. Not immediately, eventually. There is a chance that the same thing can happen again.

Palm Misses: Breathe a Sigh of Relief, And Put Centros in the Garbage Compactor

Palm is a dead company walking: muddlinginvestor.blogs...

It may have great products but never ws able to make money.

Where Has Microsoft's Growth Gone?

I wrote about it in December: seekingalpha.com/artic...

Model is broken. In past, Microsoft forced upgrade on enterprises and that was a huge part of revenue stream. Nobody wants to upgrade to Vista. In past, Windows was the only option for retail customers, now there is Apple. And don't forget billions thrown onto the Web, more and more every quarter.

Time for a New Apple and a New Wall Street

You think that Jobs put company on the way of dominance for 5 to 10 years. Don't you think that this idea is priced in the stock already?

Time to Sell Apple

On Jan 15 10:31 AM brewer wrote:

> How cheap are you wanting to unload your shares after you so stupidly
> did not sell at 202? You didn't sell at $200, so now you think
> it's a good idea to sell at 80? Good one! This company has the
> earnings in the bank already, on deferred iPhone revenue. And the
> pickup rate on it's new devices is literally out of the ballpark.
>
>

If you read my blog, you'd know that I sold some at 175 and 190. You are always welcome to bet against me, I report all my trades in my blog.

> I guess you think everyone at Apple is going to just quit working
> because Steve isn't there? If anything, I think this will make
> them work harder to prove people like you are wrong. People who
> have no idea about technology, for instance. Apple is so close
> to owing the entire enchilada, it's not even funny.
>

Is the Microsoft Empire Cracking?

To Vishal Sood:

Trends are noted too. I understand that reading numbers is boring, but here are two trends: profits from desktop business are a little bit down from the last year and losses from Web business are more than twice as big as in the last year.

Palm's Time May Have Passed

Same old story: bad management killed a company with great products.