Alex Filonov

Why Decoupling Failed

It would be a good idea to look at all financial flows when analysing international financial system. True, lots of countries and institutions invested in US Treasuries. It looks like huge US trade deficit is financed by debt. But at the same time a lot of US companies earn huge money abroad and don't repatriate in in US. China buys Treasuries, but Chinese affiliates of US companies don't repatriate profits from China, they reinvest them on site. There is a lot of crying that China can crash the market of Treasuries by selling them all at once. Well, US can crush Chinese economy by requiring all US companies to repatriate profits. Or even by taxing profits which are not being repatriated.

Predicting the Next Great Bubble

If you want to play bubbles, don't be diversified! Put everything on the bubble, you either win big or lose everything (or most). Diversification is to preserve capital, not to grow it fast.
If you don't want to lose everything, then part of your capital can go into bubble speculation.

Reverse Carry Trade Borrowing Proves Deadly

Of course people have short memory. Is it a surprise?