Alex Filonov

Resurgent Russia Discharging Dollars

Russian economy is real? Not exactly. Some of it definitely is. Most of it is virtual: "you pretend to pay us, we pretend to work". Agriculture doesn't work. Most of old plants can't produce any competitive product. Most of managers and almost all workforce don't understand elementary economics. There aren't many competitive products from Russia, with exception of raw materials, mostly oil and gas. Brain drain in the last 20 years doesn't help. I can't blame those leaving, I am one of them, but the fact that best brains are leaving Russia doesn't help its economy.

Russian "economy" right now mostly depends on price of oil. If you read Russian press, you wouldn't have any doubts about it. It even doesn't matter what kind of press you read, pro-government or opposing the government, they all agree about oil and gas dependence. And Russian ability to throw dollars to affect international events depends on the oil price. If price of oil goes down, there would be no dollars soon. Even at current price of oil, Russia will have to borrow dozens of billions dollars this year.

Russian Inflation: Is the Boom About To Bust?

Good article. Although there is one more potential problem, political. Actually, high inflation is caused, probably, by political, not economical decisions. Adding to that, increased tendency to nationalization can wreck the whole sectors of economy.

A Global Game of Economic Chicken?

To Almir:

1. Brazil is oil independent, because it invested heavily in oil production. Not because of ethanol.
2. Renewable resources (i.e. hydro power generation) are limited everywhere. Europe and US don't have any places to build new hydro plants anymore. With increased energy use, Brazil will have to build fossil fuel power plants. Or nukes. Most probably, both.
3. Inflation is mostly the matter of money policy and psychology. Doesn't have much to do with oil prices and nothing at all with energy policy.

Unfortunately, There's an "I" in BRIC (and a "C")

Unfortunately, there is an "R" too. Creeping nationalization (with partial confiscation) accelerated in Russia lately. Stay away!