Alex Filonov

Kass' Short Bet on Berkshire Falls Short of Reason

Kass made money on this bet, so he is right. He might be wrong long term, but it's completely different matter. My take on it: Kass had a gut feeling that he can make money shorting Berkshire (correct), and he explained that gut feeling to himself and others the way he did (maybe incorrect).
Never forget that there are lots of ways of making money on the market. If you win on the wrong thesis, you still win, and if you lose on the right one, you still lose.
From my point of view, there is a big danger for Berkshire: coming retirement of Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. That's much bigger danger than anything Kass mentioned. Good manager(s) can always make up losses, bad manager will always underperform the market in the long term. There aren't many managers out there equal to the Munger and Buffett genius.

Buffett's Gamble: $40 Billion Bet on Volatility

Looks like either we have depression priced into the market or it's hedge funds gone wild and selling everything they can. I'd love it to be the latter, but I'm afraid of the former.

Berkshire can get severely kicked by those put options even without decade long depression. Five years might be enough, after that stocks would take another 5 years to recover, at least. Great Depression officially ended up in 1942, but stocks didn't return to 1929 high until 1954.

TARP vs. Non-TARP: Investing with Uncle Sam at a 60% Discount

As far as I know, government didn't guarantee Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac preferreds. Why it would be different for said banks? Let's say, bank participates in TARP, fails anyway. Government steps in, guarantees all deposits and all bonds issued by bank with exception of preferreds. Bank is solvent but common and preferreds are wiped out. Is there any clause in TARP preventing that?

Yet Another Reason Not To Sell Your Berkshire Hathaway Shares

If you look at order book for most of widely traded stocks, there are orders to buy well under current price and orders to sell well above. Looks like there are people out there who make a buck, sometimes, using this practice. Why is it unethical?