Alex Filonov

Can China Really Lead the Global Recovery?

Chinese economy is export oriented right now. Unless China does an extremely unlikely trick and change economy to internally driven, any talk of it leading world recovery is absurd. Where is it going to sell the stuff?

Is China Pulling an Alan Greenspan?

This looks like what Japan did in 1989-1994.

Ultimate Economic Showdown: China vs. the U.S.

Every time somebody wanted to "bury" USA, it became stronger. China might say whatever it wants, but it still supports dollar against own currency. Sharp growth of US dollar in the last three months tells you something too. When it hits the fan, everybody wants US treasuries, thus supporting US dollar.

Disclosure: long UUP.

China’s Leaders Are Opening the Door for Profits

Two problems with China:

Big one: authoritarian government. Which is, despite Wall Street opinion, big risk for long term investments.
Smaller one: End of cheap labor. I blogged a little bit about it, visit my blog if you want. Yes, people in rural China are still dirt cheap to hire, but they require a lot of training, unlike people from industrial regions of China, and many of them don't have high school education, which disqualifies them from many jobs.

I'm staying away.