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Alex Morris

 
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  • Apple, Google, Microsoft: Why Each Is a Winner in Its Own Right [View article]
    Dave,

    I have had hands on experience with an iPad, and guess I haven't "seen the light" in its widespread use for corporations. As a cool consumer product,with some applicability to select businesses, yeah, I agree.


    "A corporation wouldn't think of replacing PCs with iPads but they will adopt the tablet for employees who can benefit."

    That is all I am saying; agree with that 100%, and the point I was partly trying to make.


    "Eventually college and high school students will be able to replace all of their textbooks and notebooks with an iPad. No more lugging a backpack from class to class. They'll also be able to complete assignments and turn them in. They'll be able to use it for class schedules and communications. The web will always be available to them as they move around the campus."

    Do you think that is what schools want? Have fun trying to make public high schools either pay for or make everyone purchase a tablet for a couple hundred bucks...
    Mar 1 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hansen Natural: 'Monster' Growth in Europe [View article]
    There were also advance orders in Mexico because of the change in legislation; not sure if that is applicable to the discussed growth, but thought I would add that on.
    Mar 1 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hansen Natural: 'Monster' Growth in Europe [View article]
    Nope, never got a response. Will have to try again.
    Mar 1 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, Google, Microsoft: Why Each Is a Winner in Its Own Right [View article]
    bilton,

    Thank you for taking the time to put that together, I sincerely appreciate it. Why I agree with the gist of what you're saying, I still think the extent to which tablets will replace computers is overstated; the points you made for accountants, lawyers, and teachers are all reasonable.

    To counter your argument, I don't see accountants spending hundreds of dollars to avoid the time to scroll through a website to find a link; to play devil's advocate, what about the time to drive to the store? How about the cost to buy the app? Wouldn't you think the software currently developed for accounting on PC's is just as good (and likely better) than the app? Long story short, what is their incentive to switch?

    And I don't see teachers making Power Point presentations on an iPad anytime soon.

    The only way these are realistic in my mind is when you can connect a keyboard to the device; you know what you got then? The thing sitting on your desk today.

    With this all being said, technology changes quick, and I could very well be wrong. I would love to hear some more of your thoughts if you have them. Thanks again
    Mar 1 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, Google, Microsoft: Why Each Is a Winner in Its Own Right [View article]
    Would you please explain to me why companies are going to buy iPad's for their employees? What can an accountant, lawyer, or professor do with an iPad that is worth it for the enterprise? More importantly, will it supplement, or replace, the computer?

    To suggest that companies are moving to Apple computers because a small percentage of employees might use tablets in their day to day operations seems like a stretch... How about all the other tablets that will be out within 12 months? Why not any of those? Why not just buy tablets that run MSFT's OS? I would be interested to hear answers to these questions, because I really don't know them; thanks.
    Feb 28 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com's Report Highlights Earnings Weakness, Cash Flow Problems [View article]
    Still can't believe what I read from an article by Whitney Tilson highlighting his short thesis:

    "Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff sold 10,000-plus shares of stock every trading day in 2010."

    All I can say: WOW
    Feb 26 05:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Golf Industry Recovery? Maybe Next Year... [View article]
    Oh okay, I thought you owned those names. I would highly recommend reading "Value Investing" by James Montier. I love growth, but more often then not you are paying for optimistic expectations; his book shows a lot of historical data that makes me question the merits of a significant number of so called "growth" stocks. With that being said, I think SAM is one of the few growth stocks that are worth the premium; it is a great niche company, with a real product and growing brand awareness/equity that will be more successful 5, 10, and 20 years from now.
    Feb 26 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's Annual Letter: The 'Three Pillars' of Berkshire's Intrinsic Value [View article]
    Berkshire book value has outpaced the S&P in every five year period since 1965; absolutely amazing long term performance.
    Feb 26 04:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Golf Industry Recovery? Maybe Next Year... [View article]
    Micheal,

    I always like our discussions, and am excited to see how this one plays out over the next five years. Either way, we will both walk away with a lesson learned and a better tool box for the future. Best of luck with NCT, CIM, and SAM.

    PS: If SAM pulls back a bit, I'll be right there with you as a shareholder
    Feb 26 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Golf Industry Recovery? Maybe Next Year... [View article]
    "Just look at the PC market share. Apple's share is growing, and Microsoft's share is declining."

    Do you have the numbers? MSFT still holds over 90%, right?

    "Apple does not need to come out with a new product every year. I still see plenty of kids using the old iPod."

    What would their stock be at if they stopped at the iPod? They HAD to come out with the iPhone, then they HAD to come out with the iPad. If they don't come out with the next great thing in a year or two and somebody beats them to the punch, you can bet the stock will get hit.

    Microsoft has struggled with the Zune, and the Windows Phone, and with search. Yet look at the business results. Remember the EPS figures from before? They make so much excess cash that they can invest at will. Obviously, something will need to catch on at some point; you can't throw away billions forever. But the stock is already priced like nothing will ever work; if something does catch on, watch out.

    Everything you mentioned about the product is pretty much irrelevant to the decision. That is important in a sense, but the guy who has to explain to his boss (who probably doesn't know anything about computers, operating systems, and software) why they should spend millions to switch away from Microsoft is going to need a better reason than that "XP looks like OS 9; they copied!".
    Feb 26 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Golf Industry Recovery? Maybe Next Year... [View article]
    "If Microsoft grows by 43%, it will equal Apple's market cap of $320 billion, but this will NEVER happen. Microsoft is nothing compared to Apple."

    Where was Apple ten years ago? I would be hesitant to claim knowing what will happen, if they past is any indication.

    Just think of how dominant MSFT is with businesses; companies will have significant switching costs (training, etc) if they want to venture outside of Windows. Have fun trying to explain to your boss why you need to spend tons of money to switch away from the most widely used system in the world that is coordinated with major business programs/partners across the globe.

    How about for consumers? If Motorola Xoom is better than the iPad, why do people have any reason to stick with the iPad? If Apple released the equivalent of Vista, what would happen? Yet look where MSFT is today after that disaster.

    We are talking about a company with a sustainable competitive advantage versus one that has been very successful with innovation; I'm not saying that isn't a competitive advantage, but watch out for it slipping out of your hands. Every year, you need a new product, which costs money to marketing, research, develop, etc., and then you have to fight again for fresh market share. This business is much more uncertain that MSFT, and is partly why I am not interested in APPL.

    Has happened to technology companies many times before, and will no doubt happen again in the future.
    Feb 26 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Golf Industry Recovery? Maybe Next Year... [View article]
    "From the chart finance.yahoo.com/q/bc... , the price was flat long after 2001. Why?"

    Because they didn't go from 60x earnings to 9x overnight; it happened over nine years.

    You are right that investors make mistakes, and I may be wrong on this. Microsoft may never be able to do anything with search, mobile, 360/Kinect, or their CRM online service (to name a few); I think they will. If they do, EPS growth will continue and the multiple will expand. In that situation, MSFT will be trading for a lot more than $26/share.
    Feb 25 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Golf Industry Recovery? Maybe Next Year... [View article]
    "MSFT has NO growth potential."

    The numbers don't agree with what you're saying. Not even just the ten year, just look YOY. They have plenty of things in the pipeline that will continue to drive growth, and billions in cash to invest as they see fit.

    "Why has MSFT gone nowhere during that span?"

    2001 EPS: $0.72
    2010 EPS: $2.11

    You cannot make money buying large caps at 50-60x earnings; anybody who bought MSFT in 2001 has hopefully learned that lesson.

    The lesson for people looking at MSFT today: the movement over the last ten years says NOTHING about the current valuation. What the business has done (12.69% EPS growth per annum over that period) is what you need to be looking at.

    "The market is smarter than you. What are they trying to tell you?"

    If by the market, you mean the best money managers in the world, they are telling me that MSFT is a good value. Here are some of the investors who have bought (or added to a position) MSFT in the past 6 months: Whitney Tilson, David Tepper, Joel Greenblatt, Jeff Auxier, Donald Yacktman, Tom Gayner, Chuck Royce, John Hussman, and Jeremy Grantham (just to name a few). I feel good when my research leads to the same conclusion as investors who have consistently outperformed the market over 10-20 year periods.
    Feb 25 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Golf Industry Recovery? Maybe Next Year... [View article]
    I've wrote extensively on MSFT; please see this article for my thesis:

    www.gurufocus.com/news...

    I believe Microsoft is a name that pulls top talent, has an extremely strong balance sheet, and controls an enviable stake on the business side. At 9x earnings and 12% earnings growth per annum over the past five years, I'm interested and will be buying more if I grab hold of additional capital.
    Feb 25 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Golf Industry Recovery? Maybe Next Year... [View article]
    Michael,

    I've already sold ELY. I like SAM, but not at this price. Holdings are set in MSFT, JNJ, TRV, and PEP.
    Feb 25 02:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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