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Alex Ramos  

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  • AccuShares Launching New VIX ETFs: How VXUP And VXDN Work [View article]
    There is something seriously wrong with your spreadsheet. Just reading the values between 1/16/1990 and 2/14/1990, you can see that some of the total value just vanishes, which is not possible in between distributions. I'm not willing to pay $24.95 to help you fix it, so why don't you just share an unlocked version for everyone to see and pick apart your formulas?
    May 29, 2015. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Relation Between VXUP And The VIX Futures [View instapost]
    the 4% lands in the hands of the short-seller who sold you the share the night before and covered today
    May 29, 2015. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Optimal Puts Versus Inverse ETFs for Hedging [View article]
    I know this reply is a little late, but I think you meant $1,700. Quoted options prices have to be multiplied by $100 for each contract covering 100 shares.
    Jun 3, 2014. 12:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • COMEX Gold Inventories Plummet: Shorts May Be Forced To Cover Fast [View article]
    What if the conspiracy theorists got it backwards, in that Gold is actually a worthless commodity whose value is constantly propped up by governments, central banks, and other conspirators. Why do central banks hold on to literally tons of the stuff if not to prop up the value? The COMEX drawdown could be simply an attempt to manufacture a physical shortage and push up the value. Central banks can do this indefinitely BTW, they just print more fiat money to remove more gold out of circulation.
    Jul 23, 2013. 07:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tapering: The Fed Means It [View article]
    @Author, perhaps you can clarify something for me actually, as part of your research. When those shorter-term notes mature, is the Fed required to remit the principal payoff back to the Treasury? In that case the money really isn't extinguished. I'm just not sure. Thanks
    Jul 8, 2013. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tapering: The Fed Means It [View article]
    The Fed's ability to issue infinite amounts of money is severely hamstrung by the mandate to keep inflation in check. So the author may have a point, even though it's not articulated: excessive balance sheet losses may result in failure to control the money supply, therefore the Fed may care. With a 5-year bond, the Fed is guaranteed the principal amount will be sucked out of circulation in 5 years' time. With a 30-year, the removal of principal from circulation is just too far off to make an effective reversal of monetary policy. The "losses" represent money that cannot be easily removed from the economy when it heats up.
    Jul 6, 2013. 01:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Biggest Risks Facing Stocks Right Now [View article]
    what ARE the two risks? Sorry, your article is very difficult to "skim", and too long to read... a Conclusion paragraph would be nice.

    I believe the major risk right now is an unexpected string of good news leading to overblown fears of Fed tightening.
    May 30, 2013. 12:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear's Best Effort At Making A Case For The Bulls [View article]
    What this market and general blogsphere and mainstream media all seem to be overlooking, and which I see no articles about, is that any unexpected string of good economic news can come out of left field at any time. Any unexpected good economic news will bring "Tapering" to the front pages and will cause a massive sell-off of anything that's not nailed to raising rates. This would be like a 1987-like crash in which equities are obliterated while economic prospects actually turn positive.

    Of course this is not guaranteed to happen. But I bet that the probability of such an event is currently under-priced, as evidenced by a low VIX.
    May 27, 2013. 11:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus - A Stock Market Dies [View article]
    Your article made me curious about tradeable opportunities... but I only found two Cypriot ADRs trading in the U.S., symbols: BACPY and PRSEY.. do you know of any other ones? I guess it's not big enough to have a diversified index ETF.
    May 27, 2013. 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Passive Index Investing Is Merely An Illusion [View article]
    Total Market Indexes are far more passive than the two indexes the author picked to illustrate his point.
    May 12, 2013. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Comex Will Not Default [View article]
    Show me a credible source. All Google hits for "LBMA Default" can be sourced back to King World News Blog and some guy named Maguire. KWNB also claims physical gold is trading at $2,000/oz. General perusal of the site shows similar style and techniques to those used by pennystock promoters.
    May 6, 2013. 08:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Comex Will Not Default [View article]
    The word Default has specific meaning generally associated with bankruptcy, forced liquidation, etc. It is not an appropriate word to describe what happens when a COMEX Failure To Deliver clause is exercised.

    NYMEX Rule 7B14:
    "In the event a clearing member fails to fulfill its specific delivery obligations pursuant to Exchange rules, in connection with a product listed for trading and clearing or for clearing-only by the NYMEX Division or the COMEX Division, the sole obligation of the Clearing House is to pay reasonable damages proximately caused by such delivery obligation failure, in an amount which shall not exceed the difference between the delivery price of the specific commodity and the reasonable market price of such commodity at the time delivery is required according to the rules of the Exchange. The Clearing House shall not be obligated to: (1) make or accept delivery of the actual commodity; or (2) pay any damages relating to the accuracy, genuineness, completeness, or acceptableness of certificates, instruments, warehouse receipts, shipping certificates, or other similar documents; or (3) pay any damages relating to the failure or insolvency of banks, depositories, warehouses, shipping stations, or similar organizations or entities that may be involved with a delivery."

    So there, is the first point of my article. Failure to deliver physical to a futures buyer is not a default. Use of the word Default in this context is a scare tactic by sellers of physical gold, which I may add, as a financial product ranks way up there with Annuities and Loaded Mutual Funds in terms of costs.

    My second point, is that you have to make up your mind about what type of market breakdown you are trying to describe. There is just no conceivable situation in which paper trades cheaper than physical AND physical failures to deliver are going to occur. If you say the paper is actually trading below physical, you are saying there are longs willing to let go of the paper for less than the physical spot price (that is what trading means: sellers selling to buyers). And as long as that market condition exists, a short-seller can opt to close out the position rather than make delivery. So, make up your mind. If the paper is trading cheaply, shorts will close out at a profit and open interest will decline. If you think there will be a failure to deliver in a paper discounted environment, explain why the shorts are so dumb as to not cover with paper.
    May 6, 2013. 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium's Dirty Little Secret - Investors Take Note [View article]
    too bad there's no Physical Uranium ETF
    May 5, 2013. 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comex Gold Default? Here's What Not To Watch [View article]
    >> Comex has an obligation to deliver should buyers decide to receive delivery.

    That is a fantasy and is absolutely not true.

    NYMEX Rulebook. 7B14 - FAILURE TO DELIVER, limits the obligation to "reasonable damages", "in an amount which shall not exceed the difference between the delivery price of the specific commodity and the reasonable market price of such commodity at the time delivery is required".

    Here - scroll down to 7B: http://bit.ly/117DU2x
    May 5, 2013. 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comex Gold Default? Here's What Not To Watch [View article]
    >> Paper will never trade at a premium to physical. Ever. Please explain why someone would rather own a worthless IOU.

    Wrong. Futures trade at a premium when there is a shortage of the physical. As expiration date approaches, the short-sellers who have no physical to deliver are forced to close-out their positions by bidding up the paper price until enough longs let go of their delivery demands. In a normally functioning market the spot and futures prices converge as expiration approaches. In a nightmarish scenario where there truly is not enough physical to close out all short positions, paper prices will go up sufficiently to the point where taking delivery becomes stupid. In this case the shorts will just buy physical in the spot market to cover the paper short at a profit.
    May 4, 2013. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
294 Comments
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