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Alex Rasmussen

 
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  • Clublink Enterprises: Apples To Oranges [View article]
    Excellent research David thanks for sharing. I modelled them in July/August last year and came up with very similar results. My only concern with your analysis would be the discount rate on Canadian operations. The beta reflects illiquidity rather than financial strength / underlying business. I would probably use a beta of 0.8 instead of 0.25 to give them some credit for recurring revenue and RTP segment.

    Great job and thanks again, Alex
    May 28 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart (WMT): A Shifting Tide? [View instapost]
    Nice job Dylan.
    May 3 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comprehensive Investigation Of Cannabis Science, A Recurrence Of Misleading Investors And Executive Self-Dealing [View article]
    Ackman could use your help - nice work Brodie
    Apr 4 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Longer Posting At Seeking Alpha [View instapost]
    Always enjoyed your contributions Tom. Good empirical work, common sense approach, and always a good eye for value.

    I hope you'll continue your contributions elsewhere. All the best.
    Mar 27 12:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside For Wek's Difference Capital [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1mu9Wzy

    Coverage initiated on Difference by National Bank with a price target of $3.40.

    "In a report published Monday, National Bank’s Mr. Thompson said his analysis suggests a downside share value of $2.30, and an upside value per share of $4.60"
    Feb 19 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside For Wek's Difference Capital [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1i42XIc

    Difference is down almost 7% today to $2.28 on double the average volume with no news except the article from management posted above. Somebody know something? Adding some more today.
    Jan 27 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JGWPT Holdings Has Massive Potential [View article]
    Ashleigh, I'd mark this as being one of the best pitches I've ever seen on this website. You actually have me excited to open a position on Monday. Bravo, Alex.
    Jan 24 10:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings: Valuing The Spin-Off Pieces [View article]
    A Baker Street analysis had real estate pegged in the range of $7B-$10B.

    Interesting to note that their analysis of the businesses mentioned here has a range of $4.9B-$7.8B, very similar to Shaun.

    It seems people are pretty comfortable on the hard asset value, the key variable is of course just how quickly Eddie can liquidate. He's definitely not throwing good money after bad, but at the current cash burn they only have 3-4 years of life left.

    If you assume the low end valuation for the businesses and real estate you get to $12B, assume $5B in net obligations, and subtract 3.5years x $1.2B of cash burn, you get get to $3.5B in value. This is a crude approach but it is what gives me pause about SHLD. I still think the risk-reward is skewed to the positive here. Again, it's all about Eddie.
    Jan 23 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside For Wek's Difference Capital [View article]
    A recent $30M raise is further validation for Difference Capital's position in BuildDirect. Difference Capital notes that:

    "By our count, this makes BuildDirect the third-largest (behind HootSuite and Shopify) Canadian private technology financing (excl. cleantech) of the past year."

    http://onforb.es/1dUTcvf
    Jan 22 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Picks For 2014 [View article]
    EMC makes The Baird List of Top Value and Relative Value Stocks to Buy for 2014, http://yhoo.it/Ky1y0t
    Jan 8 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Winning Small Stocks To Take You Through 2014 [View article]
    Thanks for SYNA. Arrived at $63 so similar to your normal case. Interesting company, good normalized free cash flow yield over 7% on a forward basis. Good stuff thanks Jae.
    Dec 30 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Picks For 2014 [View article]
    Interesting perspective on Sears (SHLD): http://bit.ly/JfiiJu
    Dec 26 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Attractive Trades For 2014 [View article]
    Great picks!
    Dec 23 01:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Picks For 2014 [View article]
    Neal as I mention in the article I'm aware it's just one review, it was the rationale behind their decision that concerned me. Seeing as more free options (and Sirius is fairly expensive) come to market, combined with the ubiquity of it being put in every new car, I'm worried its success in the short term impacts its allure and sustainability in the long term. It also relies to some extent on the novelty of the content and I found that even some of their great channels are forced to replay the same 100 songs over and over (because there are no new, "70's classics" being recorded...for example). It gets tiresome. At the same time, I'm loving a website called 8tracks.com that allows me to find playlists others have made and there are a ton of them. I'm not entirely sure but I'm assuming there is already stuff like 8tracks that you can have on your smartphone and listen to in the car. These are the threats that I think are genuine and I haven't read enough to know if people are talking about this in the market.

    Additionally, new cars seem to come with it free for 6 months at which point you're asked to subscribe. I'd be worried that this model may be skewing the growth and you're vulnerable to lumpy quarters depending on where you are in the auto cycle.

    All this to say that I think it has a narrow moat given it's market share and profitability but probably not a very deep or wide moat give the emerging threat from new entrants.
    Dec 18 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Picks For 2014 [View article]
    I looked at the comp pretty extensively. VMI historically has achieved greater and more consistent profitability. What the Kerrisdale Capital analysis really showed me was that this is changing - there has been significant convergence on most of their fundamental trends. As well, Lindsay is much greater pure play on irrigation - I don't want a big infrastructure business attached to it.

    How are you calculating your LBO? With regards to share repurchases and dividends - maybe they're more focused on running their business? Berkshire doesn't do any of the former and rarely the latter - I don't think it impacts their record. Especially if this is a longterm emerging markets story - the IC in ROIC (20%+) is worth more to me than the immediate gratification in a buyback or dividend.
    Dec 18 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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213 Comments
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