Seeking Alpha

Alex Rasmussen

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Alex Rasmussen's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Canadian Oil Sands: Sorry, But We Told You To Stay Away [View article]
    Nice call,

    Be curious to know - if you had to pick a highest quality, lowest cost name in CDN space what would that be and where would you be stepping in to buy it?

    Thanks!
    Nov 28, 2014. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wesco: Compounding Machine On Sale - 40-100% Upside [View article]
    Thanks for clearing up sales growth discrepancy. Still don't like the hurdle of that LT 13.5% on the bottomline (5yr estimate) - room for a lot of disappointment in that period makes valuation secondary imo.
    Nov 26, 2014. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wesco: Compounding Machine On Sale - 40-100% Upside [View article]
    Interesting idea had me initially intrigued but end of the day I'm looking at analysts expecting 13.5% LT EPS growth for a company that on most conventional metrics (gross margin compression, FCF conversion) has deteriorating fundamentals (though the inventory turns improvement, as you've pointed out, is comforting) as well as that P/Owner's Earnings. Expected to hit around $1.65B of sales next yr (implying growth over 20%) is a big ask for a company in a bit of an uglier business, may turn out to be not as cheap as it appears but definitely appreciate the article it looks like a good one to watch.

    All that said looks like it's overextended on the downside and could work it's way up to to $16-$17 range based on it's historical comps relative valuation. That's also where JPM (the bear on this name) just lowered it's PT today ($16), so short-term looks like good money. Thanks,
    Nov 25, 2014. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Is A Buy, Especially With Energy East On The Horizon [View article]
    Good article George thanks for sharing. Be interested to know if you feel similarly about CNQ or VET?
    Nov 23, 2014. 06:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hershey: Outstanding Company, Rich Valuation [View article]
    Brian good article, wondering why you used cost of equity of 10%? Based on most regressions it's hard to get anything over 0.90 (most bberg adjusted looking like .65) which would imply a cost of equity middling around 6%...seems low but not fair to reward a stable brand name like HSY? Be interested to know what you would think of lowering the cost of equity down sub 7% ?
    Nov 12, 2014. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clublink Enterprises: Apples To Oranges [View article]
    Excellent research David thanks for sharing. I modelled them in July/August last year and came up with very similar results. My only concern with your analysis would be the discount rate on Canadian operations. The beta reflects illiquidity rather than financial strength / underlying business. I would probably use a beta of 0.8 instead of 0.25 to give them some credit for recurring revenue and RTP segment.

    Great job and thanks again, Alex
    May 28, 2014. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart (WMT): A Shifting Tide? [View instapost]
    Nice job Dylan.
    May 3, 2014. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comprehensive Investigation Of Cannabis Science, A Recurrence Of Misleading Investors And Executive Self-Dealing [View article]
    Ackman could use your help - nice work Brodie
    Apr 4, 2014. 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Longer Posting At Seeking Alpha [View instapost]
    Always enjoyed your contributions Tom. Good empirical work, common sense approach, and always a good eye for value.

    I hope you'll continue your contributions elsewhere. All the best.
    Mar 27, 2014. 12:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside For Wek's Difference Capital [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1mu9Wzy

    Coverage initiated on Difference by National Bank with a price target of $3.40.

    "In a report published Monday, National Bank’s Mr. Thompson said his analysis suggests a downside share value of $2.30, and an upside value per share of $4.60"
    Feb 19, 2014. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside For Wek's Difference Capital [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1i42XIc

    Difference is down almost 7% today to $2.28 on double the average volume with no news except the article from management posted above. Somebody know something? Adding some more today.
    Jan 27, 2014. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JGWPT Holdings Has Massive Potential [View article]
    Ashleigh, I'd mark this as being one of the best pitches I've ever seen on this website. You actually have me excited to open a position on Monday. Bravo, Alex.
    Jan 24, 2014. 10:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings: Valuing The Spin-Off Pieces [View article]
    A Baker Street analysis had real estate pegged in the range of $7B-$10B.

    Interesting to note that their analysis of the businesses mentioned here has a range of $4.9B-$7.8B, very similar to Shaun.

    It seems people are pretty comfortable on the hard asset value, the key variable is of course just how quickly Eddie can liquidate. He's definitely not throwing good money after bad, but at the current cash burn they only have 3-4 years of life left.

    If you assume the low end valuation for the businesses and real estate you get to $12B, assume $5B in net obligations, and subtract 3.5years x $1.2B of cash burn, you get get to $3.5B in value. This is a crude approach but it is what gives me pause about SHLD. I still think the risk-reward is skewed to the positive here. Again, it's all about Eddie.
    Jan 23, 2014. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside For Wek's Difference Capital [View article]
    A recent $30M raise is further validation for Difference Capital's position in BuildDirect. Difference Capital notes that:

    "By our count, this makes BuildDirect the third-largest (behind HootSuite and Shopify) Canadian private technology financing (excl. cleantech) of the past year."

    http://onforb.es/1dUTcvf
    Jan 22, 2014. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Picks For 2014 [View article]
    EMC makes The Baird List of Top Value and Relative Value Stocks to Buy for 2014, http://yhoo.it/Ky1y0t
    Jan 8, 2014. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
218 Comments
80 Likes