Alex Trias

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Agreed. Doom and gloom are not required to explain things. And in any event, today we seem to be seeing some surprise buying. Garden variety churning, sector rotation, or just locking in some hefty gains? May very well be any and all of the above. Having absolutely no conviction one way or the other seems the more cautious attitude.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Sometimes, the way you can tell you're at an inflection point is that stuff stops making any sense. Futures indicate a positive start, and the market falls. Or the markets sell off on good news, fail to rally off technical support points. At first, you just shrug your shoulders and chalk it up to market wierdness. Until a pattern of wierdness starts to take shape.
One day does not make a pattern. But still, the longer you find yourself scratching your head and wondering why the market is behaving in surprising ways, the more you start to think change may be in the air. I suggest keeping a keen watch for some sign of trouble in any corner of the asset markets. A large defaut on a commercial mortgage, a currency going into a tailspin. Anything that could matter, but it is not yet clear whether it ultimately will matter. I am suggesting a high level of scrutiny is appropriate because I am reminded of some strange, unanticipated churnings in the equities markets right before the subprime market blew up in 2007. I am not suggesting in any way that we are on the verge of any renewed financial collapse (I'd have no way of knowing or even venturing a guess about that). I'm only suggesting that if equities start behaving oddly for any meaningful length of time, that could be an indication that something is on the horizon, and if that something starts to materialize, you'll want to recognize it ASAP and act accordingly.