Seeking Alpha

Alexander J. Poulos

 
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AAPL, ALL, AMGN, AMIGY, AZN, BBBY, BMY, BP, BPT, C, CBS, CCE, CL, CMG, CPB, CSCO, CTSH, CVX, DE, DEO, DLTR, DOW, DTV, DXJ, ESV, GD, GE, GILD, GLD, GSK, HIG, HSY, IBM, INTC, KO, KR, LLY, LO, LVS, M, MCD, NKE, NOC, O, PAYX, PFE, PG, PM, SIRI, SLB, T, TGT, THI, TSM, UNH, V, VVUS, WAG, WFC, XHB, XOM, YHOO
  • Has The Opportunity In Yahoo Passed?
    Wed, Sep. 17 YHOO 71 Comments

    Summary

    • The much anticipated Alibaba IPO will commence trading on Friday.
    • Yahoo by the virtue of its roughly 22% stake in Alibaba is set to handsomely profit from the IPO.
    • The question facing investors is, has the opportunity to purchase Yahoo at an advantageous price passed?
  • Why Citigroup Will Double Over The Next 5 Years
    Tue, Sep. 16 C 34 Comments

    Summary

    • As a value investor, I seek out companies that offer above-average returns with below-average risk.
    • My intention once identifying such a company is to initiate a position and hold for the long term.
    • Citigroup shareholders can reasonably expect to double their money in five years, as will be detailed in the article below.
  • Cognizant Technologies Offers Investors An Opportunity To Double Your Money With Below-Average Risk
    Tue, Sep. 16 CTSH 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Cognizant Technologies operates in the IT consulting field. Revenue growth over the past ten years has exceeded 30% per year, on average.
    • Consulting contracts are more long-term in nature, providing excellent revenue visibility.
    • I am anticipating a double in the share price over the next five years as revenue continues to grown at a double-digit rate per year.
  • Reviewing My Bullish Stance On BP
    Mon, Sep. 8 BP 18 Comments

    Summary

    • To add balance to my portfolio, I look for companies that can safely compound at a double digit rate.
    • A current investor in BP should be able to compound at a double digit rate over the course of the rest of the decade.
    • As detailed in the article below, the recent negative verdict will have minimal impact at best.
  • Is Barron's Right On Target With Schlumberger?
    Wed, Sep. 3 SLB 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Barron's recently wrote a bullish cover story on Schlumberger.
    • The CEO is very bullish on their prospects with a earnings compounded annual growth rate of 17% through 2017.
    • The article below will discuss SLB current fair value and how we arrived at it.
  • Using Yahoo As A Unique Way To Capitalize On The Upcoming Alibaba IPO
    Wed, Sep. 3 YHOO 76 Comments

    Summary

    • Sum of the parts valuation methods can be quite useful when applied in a consistent manner.
    • Yahoo offers a unique way of capitalizing on the upcoming Alibaba IPO.
    • The Street is significantly undervaluing YHOO as my model will show in the accompanying article.
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Underpriced At Its Current Price
    Mon, Aug. 25 MCD 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Valuation models can be very useful in determining if a particular security is undervalued.
    • The model must use conservative assumptions, or it will be proven to be wildly inaccurate.
    • McDonald's is, in my view, undervalued by at least 20%, offering the conservative investor above-average gains with below-average risk.
  • The Admiral Group Plc Offers A Very Compelling Yield With The Potential For Capital Gains
    Mon, Aug. 25 AMIGY 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The auto insurance field can best be described as a commodity market.
    • The dominant player needs to have a lower cost basis to effectively thrive in such a market. The Admiral Group exhibits these qualities.
    • I anticipate a nice blend of capital gains and high dividends going forward.
  • Why The Hershey Company Continues To Offer The Best Value In The Food Processing Industry.
    Thu, Aug. 21 HSY 32 Comments

    Summary

    • DCF and WACC calculations can be very helpful in developing an investment thesis in a company.
    • Hershey is an excellent candidate for this type of study due to their steady revenue and earnings growth.
    • Hershey has the best return on assets and return on capital in the food processing industry. I dub them best in class.
  • Ensco PLC Offers A Sobering Look At The Dynamics Affecting Its Core Markets
    Mon, Aug. 18 ESV 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Ensco recent earnings announcement was met with much disappointment.
    • Ensco is looking to divest itself of older rigs which will dramatically reduce the average age of its existing fleet.
    • Management is cautious due to the coming oversupply in the market.
  • Update: CBS Morphs Into A Capital Return Play
    Mon, Aug. 11 CBS Comment!

    Summary

    • CBS recently reported their quarterly earnings which were met with approval as evidenced by a 4% jump in the share price.
    • CBS is morphing itself into a capital return play with the potential for above average gains with below average risk. My favorite types of investments.
    • Management has recently increased its dividend by 25% with more to come.
  • Walgreen - Brutal Sell-Off Offers An Attractive Entry For The Patient Long-Term Investor
    Thu, Aug. 7 WAG 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Walgreen has sold off over 20% in the last two days.
    • The sell-off has managed to erase most of the gains for the year.
    • Walgreen announced they will acquire the remaining portion of Allied Boots which may have exacerbated the selling.
  • Update: Sirius XM Holdings Earnings
    Mon, Aug. 4 SIRI 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Sirius XM Holdings seemed poised to rally of the back of a stellar earnings report.
    • EBITDA and cash flow grew at an impressive clip fueling an aggressive share repurchase plan.
    • The picture becomes murkier once the fully diluted shares are taken into account.
  • Allstate Reports Stellar Numbers, Expect Further Gains To Follow
    Fri, Aug. 1 ALL 4 Comments

    Summary

    • On a day where the major indices lost roughly 2% each, Allstate posted a gain of 2.74%.
    • The gain today indicate the strength of its recent earnings report. Management really hit the ball out of the park.
    • I expect the shares to power higher as the year progresses.
  • Wells Fargo Offers An Attractive Combination Of Dividends And Capital Gains.
    Tue, Jul. 29 WFC 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Wells Fargo continues to perform well as evidenced by its stellar Return on Assets.
    • WFC consistently trades a premium to book value due to its high returns.
    • I expect WFC book value and dividend rate to consistently grow over the next couple of years.
  • Raising My $100 Price Target For Gilead Sciences On Sovaldi Sales
    Mon, Jul. 28 GILD 64 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences reported stellar earnings yet the stock moved very little.
    • Sovaldi sales continue to far exceed all estimates.
    • My $100 price target now seems to conservative. An update higher is certainly warranted.
  • The Hershey Company Offers The Best Value In The Food Processing Industry
    Mon, Jul. 28 HSY 11 Comments

    Summary

    • The food processing sector is a boring, predictably business however some entities are head and shoulders above the rest.
    • Hershey is a truly special company due to the consistent high returns they generate.
    • The patient long term investor may have an opportunity here as the spike in cocoa and dairy prices have curbed Wall Street's enthusiasm for the shares.
  • Why Visa Is My Largest Holding, With Further Gains Expected
    Sat, Jul. 26 V 68 Comments

    Summary

    • The drop in Visa shares Friday was unwarranted as earnings should grow by at least 17% this year.
    • Visa has the potential to become a ten-bagger for the patient long-term investor.
    • The trend towards a cash less society continues with Visa collecting high fees from this trend.
  • Exxon Mobil Quietly Breaks Out To A New High
    Fri, Jul. 25 XOM 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Exxon Mobil continue their strong uptrend over the past six months.
    • The shares continue to trade at a below-market multiple which adds to their appeal.
    • A patient long-term investor can expect to compound at a double digit rate for the next ten years.
  • McDonald's Offers An Attractive Low Risk Opportunity For Income And Capital Gains
    Tue, Jul. 22 MCD 25 Comments

    Summary

    • McDonald's sluggish sales trend continues sending the shares lower today.
    • The income growth potential remains with the current yield of 3.25% and rising.
    • A long term investor can expect a conservative 30%+ total return over the next three years as the company executes its new plan.
  • IBM Transformation Continues, Expect The Shares To Trade To $250 By Year-End
    Fri, Jul. 18 IBM 78 Comments

    Summary

    • Revenue is beginning to stabilize which should propel the shares higher over the next few quarters.
    • Management reaffirmed earnings of $18 per share which makes IBM unduly cheap.
    • Continued growth of its Software division will allow it to de-emphasize the hardware division.
  • Revisiting My Bullish Stance On Citigroup
    Thu, Jul. 17 C 41 Comments

    Summary

    • Citigroup remains a bargain as the shares trade below its tangible book value of 56.89 per share.
    • The norm for the company before the financial crisis was 1.5-2.2 times book value which would value the shares at a minimum of $85 per share.
    • Citi Holdings which comprises all of the bad loans actually posted a profit this quarter.
  • CBS Corp. Is Broadcasting An Excellent Combination Of Dividend Growth And Capital Gain Potential
    Thu, Jul. 17 CBS 7 Comments

    Summary

    • CBS management team is transforming the company into a pure content company.
    • The transformation has begun with the divestiture of its CBS outdoor division.
    • The transaction along with a recent share repurchase plan has reduced shares outstanding by roughly 17% This should pave the way for much higher capital gains going forward.
  • Sirius XM Holdings Continues To Reward Shareholders
    Wed, Jul. 16 SIRI 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Sirius has a subscription based business with a fairly predictable revenue stream.
    • Sirius generates a large amount of free cash flow which will be used to reduce shares outstanding.
    • Management just authorized an additional $2 billion for share repurchases which in my view will help propel the shares higher.
  • My High Share Buyback And Dividend Growth Portfolio 2nd Quarter 2014 Update
    Thu, Jul. 10 AAPL, ABC, AMGN 16 Comments

    Summary

    • The market will act irrationally at times, selling off excellent companies without a justified cause.
    • The patient long-term investor should aggressively act on these opportunities.
    • Never fear taking a profit, as few stocks go straight up.
  • Time To Part Ways With Philip Morris As The Investor Day Presentation Fails To Inspire Confidence
    Wed, Jul. 9 PM 62 Comments

    Summary

    • Philip Morris reduced its earnings for the second time this year.
    • PM's ability to return capital to shareholders will be restrained over the next two years, as additional funds are used to create reduced risk products.
    • With PM being constrained in its ability to return capital, I find the shares unappealing at this time and have moved the funds into Allstate instead.
  • Gilead Sciences Breaks Out To New Highs, Expect Further Gains To Follow
    Wed, Jul. 2 GILD 106 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences' shares have been moving sideways for the past month, as the bulls and bears battle it out.
    • The shares have broken out decisively today to the upside.
    • I expect a quick run to $90 before GILD releases its earnings report.
  • With The Market At A New High, The Dollar Stores Offer Outstanding Value
    Sun, Jun. 22 DLTR 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Dollar Tree at its current valuation is the best value in the dollar store space.
    • Dollar General is a close second, as the shares have run up since the news of Carl Icahn's stake in Family Dollar.
    • Family Dollar is a mess, as the management team is hunkered down trying to save their jobs.
  • Coca-Cola Enterprises Offers A More Compelling Total Return Than Cola-Cola.
    Sun, Jun. 22 CCE 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Coca-Cola is one of the world's most easily recognized brands. The bottlers are a unique way of capturing the continued growth in Coca-Cola.
    • Coca-Cola Enterprises is the third largest bottler whose territory is based in Northern Europe.
    • Coca-Cola Enterprises' stable cash flow combined with its aggressive share repurchase will allow it to outperform Coca-Cola going forward.
  • Las Vegas Sands: Betting On Market Beating Returns
    Wed, Jun. 4 LVS 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Las Vegas Sands offers a unique play on the growth of casino gambling in Asia. Yesterday's disappointing report is a gift for the patient long term investor.
    • LVS is rewarding shareholders through a boost in the dividend rate. Expect an additional hike this year.
    • LVS is morphing into a free cash flow machine with a focus on returning capital to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.
  • Is The Street Predicting A Major Announcement By Colgate-Palmolive?
    Sat, May. 31 CL 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Colgate-Palmolive has outperformed its peer group and the S&P 500 by a large margin over the past 10 years.
    • Colgate-Palmolive is a dividend growth investor's best friend as the dividend growth has averaged over 10% in the past 10 years.
    • The shares have made a new 52-week high on the back of a surge in high volume, perhaps a sign of higher prices to come in the near future.
  • What I Am Doing With My AT&T/DirecTV Shares
    Tue, May. 27 T, DTV 41 Comments

    Summary

    • The combined entity will increase AT&T cash flow which should lead to a higher dividend.
    • The "New AT&T" would become my largest holding which I am not comfortable with.
    • I am looking to replace DIRECTV with another company that generates a large amount of free cash flow.