Seeking Alpha

Alexander J. Poulos

 
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  • Did Gilead Sciences Really Disappoint With Its Earnings Announcement?
    Today, 8:14 AM GILD 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Gilead sold off after what some termed a disappointing earnings release.
    • There is plenty to like in the earnings release.
    • I suspect Gilead will beat fourth quarter numbers as some patients put off treatment to await the approval of Harvoni.
  • Can Activist Pressure Lead To Better Results At McDonald's?
    Today, 2:26 AM MCD 6 Comments

    Summary

    • McDonald's continues to struggle.
    • Bloomberg reported that the Golden Arches may become an activist target.
    • The article below offers my thoughts on the matter along with a discussion on some of the company's new initiatives.
    • I have updated my fair value model to more accurately reflect McDonald's earnings for 2014.
  • Amgen Continues To Offer The Best Value In Biotech
    Yesterday, 9:23 AM AMGN 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Amgen shares hit a new all time high on Tuesday coming off the back of a stellar earnings report.
    • The future does indeed look bright as the company expects to collect pivotal data by 2016 for 10 innovative products.
    • Dan Loeb has gotten involved calling for additional cost cuts and a split of the company into two separate entities.
  • Las Vegas Sands: The Mall Properties Are The Hidden Gem Here
    Tue, Oct. 28 LVS 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Las Vegas Sands continues to offer a unique way of profiting off the burgeoning growth of the Asian gambling market.
    • LVS is far better positioned due to its integrated resorts model that appeals to the burgeoning middle class. Other competitors are highly dependent on the VIP market.
    • The mall properties are the hidden gem here, which will allow the company to attract the burgeoning middle class known as the mass gaming market.
  • Coca-Cola Has Become Interesting Again
    Mon, Oct. 27 KO 79 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent earnings release was met with an uncharacteristic wave of selling.
    • Coca-Cola is a defensive, low volatility play. The 6% post earnings drop is highly unusual.
    • The article below summarizes my current thoughts on Coke.
  • Following Carl Icahn Into Hertz Global
    Sat, Oct. 25 HTZ 11 Comments

    Summary

    • The shares of Hertz have been battered this month.
    • The company is going through an accounting scandal that has led to the ouster of the CEO and CFO.
    • Carl Icahn has amassed an 8.48% stake in the firm and has a stellar track record of effecting change.
  • Time To Take Profits In Yahoo
    Fri, Oct. 24 YHOO 96 Comments

    Summary

    • Yahoo reported their quarterly earnings which was embraced by Wall Street.
    • The shares have failed to trade above the BABA IPO high of $44 per share.
    • I suspect the company's efforts to negate the tax effect will be futile.
  • Using European Uncertainty To Initiate A Position In Coca-Cola Enterprises
    Thu, Oct. 16 CCE 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The market sell off has knocked the market below its 200-day moving average. Stocks in general are selling off.
    • There is heightened uncertainty as fears of a recession have sprung to life.
    • European shares have been hit harder than their American counterparts, perhaps some bargains can be had in Continental Europe.
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences
    Mon, Oct. 13 GILD 76 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences offers the patient long-term investor a very compelling risk reward scenario.
    • The shares should continue to rally, as the FDA recently approved Harvoni, a combination product containing the blockbuster product, Sovaldi.
    • Harvoni should solidify GILD's dominance in infectious disease for many years to come.
  • Portfolio Changes For The Third Quarter 2014
    Thu, Oct. 9 HSY, YHOO, TSM 14 Comments

    Summary

    • The market continues to offer interesting opportunities. I expect 2015 to shape up into another stellar year for equities, as interest rates remain tamed.
    • I have made changes in the model portfolio to better reflect my bullish stance.
    • I continue to maintain the bull market that began in 2009 will continue on unimpeded as long as the 10-year US Treasury bond remains below 4%.
  • Illustrating Why Exxon Mobil Offers An Outstanding Value In Today's Market
    Tue, Oct. 7 XOM 43 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of oil has declined significantly over the past month bringing down the whole energy sector.
    • A patient long-term investor is being offered a gift by the market.
    • As illustrated in the article below, XOM's fair value is quite a bit higher than its current price.
  • Illustrating Ensco PLC's Fair Value
    Mon, Oct. 6 ESV 49 Comments

    Summary

    • The energy sector has come under extreme selling pressure over the past month.
    • The offshore oil drillers have been among the worst performers as investors fret over their future earnings prospects.
    • A recent article by Barron's questioning the sustainability of the dividend has raised additional concerns.
  • Illustrating Why Colgate-Palmolive Is A Leveraged Buyout Candidate
    Mon, Sep. 29 CL 10 Comments

    Summary

    • A recent Bloomberg article mentioned that Colgate-Palmolive may become a takeover candidate.
    • If successful it would become the largest deal announced this year.
    • I constructed a couple of models to determine Colgate's fair value and potential appeal as a takeover candidate.
  • Examining Yahoo's Value After The Successful Alibaba IPO
    Mon, Sep. 22 YHOO 39 Comments

    Summary

    • The Alibaba IPO was a success, jumping from $68 to over $93 on its first day of trading.
    • Yahoo shareholders were disappointed, as their holding actually closed down on the day.
    • There is a significant value discrepancy embedded in the shares of Yahoo that will be detailed in the article below.
  • Has The Opportunity In Yahoo Passed?
    Wed, Sep. 17 YHOO 94 Comments

    Summary

    • The much anticipated Alibaba IPO will commence trading on Friday.
    • Yahoo by the virtue of its roughly 22% stake in Alibaba is set to handsomely profit from the IPO.
    • The question facing investors is, has the opportunity to purchase Yahoo at an advantageous price passed?
  • Why Citigroup Will Double Over The Next 5 Years
    Tue, Sep. 16 C 39 Comments

    Summary

    • As a value investor, I seek out companies that offer above-average returns with below-average risk.
    • My intention once identifying such a company is to initiate a position and hold for the long term.
    • Citigroup shareholders can reasonably expect to double their money in five years, as will be detailed in the article below.
  • Cognizant Technologies Offers Investors An Opportunity To Double Your Money With Below-Average Risk
    Tue, Sep. 16 CTSH 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Cognizant Technologies operates in the IT consulting field. Revenue growth over the past ten years has exceeded 30% per year, on average.
    • Consulting contracts are more long-term in nature, providing excellent revenue visibility.
    • I am anticipating a double in the share price over the next five years as revenue continues to grown at a double-digit rate per year.
  • Reviewing My Bullish Stance On BP
    Mon, Sep. 8 BP 18 Comments

    Summary

    • To add balance to my portfolio, I look for companies that can safely compound at a double digit rate.
    • A current investor in BP should be able to compound at a double digit rate over the course of the rest of the decade.
    • As detailed in the article below, the recent negative verdict will have minimal impact at best.
  • Is Barron's Right On Target With Schlumberger?
    Wed, Sep. 3 SLB 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Barron's recently wrote a bullish cover story on Schlumberger.
    • The CEO is very bullish on their prospects with a earnings compounded annual growth rate of 17% through 2017.
    • The article below will discuss SLB current fair value and how we arrived at it.
  • Using Yahoo As A Unique Way To Capitalize On The Upcoming Alibaba IPO
    Wed, Sep. 3 YHOO 80 Comments

    Summary

    • Sum of the parts valuation methods can be quite useful when applied in a consistent manner.
    • Yahoo offers a unique way of capitalizing on the upcoming Alibaba IPO.
    • The Street is significantly undervaluing YHOO as my model will show in the accompanying article.
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Underpriced At Its Current Price
    Mon, Aug. 25 MCD 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Valuation models can be very useful in determining if a particular security is undervalued.
    • The model must use conservative assumptions, or it will be proven to be wildly inaccurate.
    • McDonald's is, in my view, undervalued by at least 20%, offering the conservative investor above-average gains with below-average risk.
  • The Admiral Group Plc Offers A Very Compelling Yield With The Potential For Capital Gains
    Mon, Aug. 25 AMIGY 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The auto insurance field can best be described as a commodity market.
    • The dominant player needs to have a lower cost basis to effectively thrive in such a market. The Admiral Group exhibits these qualities.
    • I anticipate a nice blend of capital gains and high dividends going forward.
  • Why The Hershey Company Continues To Offer The Best Value In The Food Processing Industry.
    Thu, Aug. 21 HSY 32 Comments

    Summary

    • DCF and WACC calculations can be very helpful in developing an investment thesis in a company.
    • Hershey is an excellent candidate for this type of study due to their steady revenue and earnings growth.
    • Hershey has the best return on assets and return on capital in the food processing industry. I dub them best in class.
  • Ensco PLC Offers A Sobering Look At The Dynamics Affecting Its Core Markets
    Mon, Aug. 18 ESV 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Ensco recent earnings announcement was met with much disappointment.
    • Ensco is looking to divest itself of older rigs which will dramatically reduce the average age of its existing fleet.
    • Management is cautious due to the coming oversupply in the market.
  • Update: CBS Morphs Into A Capital Return Play
    Mon, Aug. 11 CBS Comment!

    Summary

    • CBS recently reported their quarterly earnings which were met with approval as evidenced by a 4% jump in the share price.
    • CBS is morphing itself into a capital return play with the potential for above average gains with below average risk. My favorite types of investments.
    • Management has recently increased its dividend by 25% with more to come.
  • Walgreen - Brutal Sell-Off Offers An Attractive Entry For The Patient Long-Term Investor
    Thu, Aug. 7 WAG 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Walgreen has sold off over 20% in the last two days.
    • The sell-off has managed to erase most of the gains for the year.
    • Walgreen announced they will acquire the remaining portion of Allied Boots which may have exacerbated the selling.
  • Update: Sirius XM Holdings Earnings
    Mon, Aug. 4 SIRI 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Sirius XM Holdings seemed poised to rally of the back of a stellar earnings report.
    • EBITDA and cash flow grew at an impressive clip fueling an aggressive share repurchase plan.
    • The picture becomes murkier once the fully diluted shares are taken into account.
  • Allstate Reports Stellar Numbers, Expect Further Gains To Follow
    Fri, Aug. 1 ALL 4 Comments

    Summary

    • On a day where the major indices lost roughly 2% each, Allstate posted a gain of 2.74%.
    • The gain today indicate the strength of its recent earnings report. Management really hit the ball out of the park.
    • I expect the shares to power higher as the year progresses.
  • Wells Fargo Offers An Attractive Combination Of Dividends And Capital Gains.
    Tue, Jul. 29 WFC 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Wells Fargo continues to perform well as evidenced by its stellar Return on Assets.
    • WFC consistently trades a premium to book value due to its high returns.
    • I expect WFC book value and dividend rate to consistently grow over the next couple of years.
  • Raising My $100 Price Target For Gilead Sciences On Sovaldi Sales
    Mon, Jul. 28 GILD 64 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences reported stellar earnings yet the stock moved very little.
    • Sovaldi sales continue to far exceed all estimates.
    • My $100 price target now seems to conservative. An update higher is certainly warranted.
  • The Hershey Company Offers The Best Value In The Food Processing Industry
    Mon, Jul. 28 HSY 11 Comments

    Summary

    • The food processing sector is a boring, predictably business however some entities are head and shoulders above the rest.
    • Hershey is a truly special company due to the consistent high returns they generate.
    • The patient long term investor may have an opportunity here as the spike in cocoa and dairy prices have curbed Wall Street's enthusiasm for the shares.
  • Why Visa Is My Largest Holding, With Further Gains Expected
    Sat, Jul. 26 V 68 Comments

    Summary

    • The drop in Visa shares Friday was unwarranted as earnings should grow by at least 17% this year.
    • Visa has the potential to become a ten-bagger for the patient long-term investor.
    • The trend towards a cash less society continues with Visa collecting high fees from this trend.