Seeking Alpha

Alexander J. Poulos

 
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  • Examining Gilead Sciences' Future Pipeline
    Wed, Dec. 17 GILD 45 Comments

    Summary

    • The drug pipeline is the lifeblood of all research-based companies.
    • A thorough understanding of the potential embedded in a company's pipeline offers a glimpse into potential for future revenue and profits.
    • Gilead Sciences currently has a real gem in development which I will detail below.
  • Walgreen Breaks Out To New Highs, Further Upside Ahead
    Mon, Dec. 15 WAG 7 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent stellar advance in the shares of Walgreen has made the recent market sell-off a bit easier to take.
    • The shares have taken off upon the announcement of the current CEO's retirement once the Allied Boots merger is completed.
    • I expect further upside ahead as detailed below.
  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet
    Mon, Dec. 15 ESV 57 Comments

    Summary

    • The sudden drop in the price of oil has severely damaged the share price of those in the energy sector.
    • The offshore drillers have really taken it on the chin with most down over 50% for the year.
    • Are we at an investable bottom, or is there further pain ahead.
    • With Seadrill recently eliminating its dividend, how safe is Ensco dividend going forward.
  • Citigroup Breaks Out To A New High
    Tue, Dec. 9 C 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Friday's stellar jobs report lit a fire under financial stocks.
    • It is becoming increasingly likely that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates in 2015.
    • I expect Citigroup will increase above its book value next year as conditions continue to improve.
  • How The Carnage In The Oil Patch Will Negatively Impact Railroads
    Mon, Dec. 8 CNI, CP, UNP 15 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent carnage in the oil patch will reverberate onto the industries that service this sector.
    • The railroad operators who service the frackers will be especially vulnerable to this phenomena.
    • I am patiently awaiting for a bargain to emerge before investing capital into the industry.
  • How I'm Playing The Collapse In The Price Of Oil
    Mon, Dec. 8 XOM, APA, SLB 34 Comments

    Summary

    • The sudden drop in the price of crude oil has caught many by surprise.
    • The damage to the energy sector has been severe as the sector is showing losses for the year.
    • Patience and perseverance is needed here as the down spike will be proven to be short lived.
  • Why Hormel Is Too Expensive At Its Current Price
    Sun, Nov. 30 HRL 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Hormel is a well managed company with an under-leveraged balance sheet.
    • Hormel operates in the food processing industry in what can be considered a defensive play.
    • My earnings per share growth model and DCF model both indicate the shares to be overvalued at its current price.
  • Has John Deere Reached A Cyclical Low?
    Sat, Nov. 29 DE 41 Comments

    Summary

    • The best time to invest in cyclical companies is when they have reached an earnings trough.
    • By waiting for the earnings trough, an investor is mitigating most of the risk in holding the shares.
    • I suspect we will reach an earnings trough in 2015.
  • The FDA Breakthrough Designation Further Validates Regeneron's Pipeline
    Fri, Nov. 21 REGN 17 Comments

    Summary

    • A research based company's pipeline determines its fate going forward.
    • Early positive clinical results can give an investor an early read as to the future path of the company's share price.
    • The recent string of high profile successes have stoked my bullish fervor even more.
  • The Activist Stake In Hertz Continues To Rise
    Thu, Nov. 20 HTZ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Hertz released its updated guidance, which led to a steep sell-off.
    • Thankfully for the longs the shares recouped much of the damage.
    • The activists continue to up their stake, with Jana Partners increasing their stake to 8.3%.
  • Dispelling Some Of The Myths Surrounding Gilead Sciences
    Tue, Nov. 18 GILD 194 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences has sold off recently over fears the company's growth prospects have dimmed.
    • Gilead's best days are yet to come, as the money will continue to roll in.
    • The article below will discuss the threat posed by AbbVie in greater detail.
  • Hertz Offers Tremendous Upside As A Turnaround Commences
    Editors' Pick • Mon, Nov. 17 HTZ 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Opportunity comes to those who are patient and understand the challenges faced.
    • The Hertz story is a bit complicated, yet once studied long enough, the opportunity becomes clear.
    • The recent sell-off was very overdone, as many panicked.
  • David Winters Ravages Coca-Cola's Board Once Again, Stating The Dividend Is At Risk
    Fri, Nov. 14 KO 33 Comments

    Summary

    • David Winters is at it again, taking offense to Coke's newly released executive compensation package.
    • Winters is some one to watch as he successfully pressured the board to amend the pay package.
    • He even shamed Warren Buffett into abstaining from voting for the plan.
    • Is he serious when he states the dividend could be at risk?
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Offers More Upside Than Gilead Sciences
    Fri, Nov. 14 REGN 31 Comments

    Summary

    • Regeneron continues to perform as the shares continue their ascent higher.
    • The company's main compounds continue to show significant promise in Phase III testing.
    • Sanofi holds over 20% of the shares outstanding offering a built in suitor if the compounds deliver on their promise.
    • I expect the shares to potentially outperform Gilead Sciences in 2015 as will be detailed below.
  • Illustrating Google's Fair Value
    Wed, Nov. 12 GOOG, GOOGL 31 Comments

    Summary

    • The internet search giant has sold off quite a bit since hitting all-time highs earlier this year.
    • A cash flow analysis was constructed to determine the fair value of the shares.
    • Google is currently undervalued at its current quote, which makes the shares a compelling buy.
  • General Mills Has Become Interesting Again
    Wed, Nov. 12 GIS 38 Comments

    Summary

    • All great companies hit a temporary rough patch.
    • The key for a long-term investor is to identify those who have entered into a rough patch and build a position in them.
    • Typically, you will be acquiring shares at a discount to their true worth, which will enhance long-term gains going forward.
    • Such is the opportunity before us in General Mills as will be detailed below.
  • Re-Examining My Bullish Thesis On Walgreen
    Tue, Nov. 11 WAG 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Walgreen has recouped quite a bit of the share price it lost in August.
    • Investors were quite short-sighted, in my opinion, in dumping shares of Walgreen.
    • By not pursuing a tax inversion deal, management has been validated by recent Treasury department rule changes making the move less advantageous.
    • The shares continue to offer a compelling, low-risk play in the healthcare field.
  • Did Gilead Sciences Really Disappoint With Its Earnings Announcement?
    Fri, Oct. 31 GILD 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Gilead sold off after what some termed a disappointing earnings release.
    • There is plenty to like in the earnings release.
    • I suspect Gilead will beat fourth quarter numbers as some patients put off treatment to await the approval of Harvoni.
  • Can Activist Pressure Lead To Better Results At McDonald's?
    Fri, Oct. 31 MCD 6 Comments

    Summary

    • McDonald's continues to struggle.
    • Bloomberg reported that the Golden Arches may become an activist target.
    • The article below offers my thoughts on the matter along with a discussion on some of the company's new initiatives.
    • I have updated my fair value model to more accurately reflect McDonald's earnings for 2014.
  • Amgen Continues To Offer The Best Value In Biotech
    Thu, Oct. 30 AMGN 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Amgen shares hit a new all time high on Tuesday coming off the back of a stellar earnings report.
    • The future does indeed look bright as the company expects to collect pivotal data by 2016 for 10 innovative products.
    • Dan Loeb has gotten involved calling for additional cost cuts and a split of the company into two separate entities.
  • Las Vegas Sands: The Mall Properties Are The Hidden Gem Here
    Tue, Oct. 28 LVS 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Las Vegas Sands continues to offer a unique way of profiting off the burgeoning growth of the Asian gambling market.
    • LVS is far better positioned due to its integrated resorts model that appeals to the burgeoning middle class. Other competitors are highly dependent on the VIP market.
    • The mall properties are the hidden gem here, which will allow the company to attract the burgeoning middle class known as the mass gaming market.
  • Coca-Cola Has Become Interesting Again
    Mon, Oct. 27 KO 96 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent earnings release was met with an uncharacteristic wave of selling.
    • Coca-Cola is a defensive, low volatility play. The 6% post earnings drop is highly unusual.
    • The article below summarizes my current thoughts on Coke.
  • Following Carl Icahn Into Hertz Global
    Sat, Oct. 25 HTZ 20 Comments

    Summary

    • The shares of Hertz have been battered this month.
    • The company is going through an accounting scandal that has led to the ouster of the CEO and CFO.
    • Carl Icahn has amassed an 8.48% stake in the firm and has a stellar track record of effecting change.
  • Time To Take Profits In Yahoo
    Fri, Oct. 24 YHOO 100 Comments

    Summary

    • Yahoo reported their quarterly earnings which was embraced by Wall Street.
    • The shares have failed to trade above the BABA IPO high of $44 per share.
    • I suspect the company's efforts to negate the tax effect will be futile.
  • Using European Uncertainty To Initiate A Position In Coca-Cola Enterprises
    Thu, Oct. 16 CCE 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The market sell off has knocked the market below its 200-day moving average. Stocks in general are selling off.
    • There is heightened uncertainty as fears of a recession have sprung to life.
    • European shares have been hit harder than their American counterparts, perhaps some bargains can be had in Continental Europe.
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences
    Mon, Oct. 13 GILD 76 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences offers the patient long-term investor a very compelling risk reward scenario.
    • The shares should continue to rally, as the FDA recently approved Harvoni, a combination product containing the blockbuster product, Sovaldi.
    • Harvoni should solidify GILD's dominance in infectious disease for many years to come.
  • Portfolio Changes For The Third Quarter 2014
    Thu, Oct. 9 HSY, YHOO, TSM 14 Comments

    Summary

    • The market continues to offer interesting opportunities. I expect 2015 to shape up into another stellar year for equities, as interest rates remain tamed.
    • I have made changes in the model portfolio to better reflect my bullish stance.
    • I continue to maintain the bull market that began in 2009 will continue on unimpeded as long as the 10-year US Treasury bond remains below 4%.
  • Illustrating Why Exxon Mobil Offers An Outstanding Value In Today's Market
    Tue, Oct. 7 XOM 43 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of oil has declined significantly over the past month bringing down the whole energy sector.
    • A patient long-term investor is being offered a gift by the market.
    • As illustrated in the article below, XOM's fair value is quite a bit higher than its current price.
  • Illustrating Ensco PLC's Fair Value
    Mon, Oct. 6 ESV 53 Comments

    Summary

    • The energy sector has come under extreme selling pressure over the past month.
    • The offshore oil drillers have been among the worst performers as investors fret over their future earnings prospects.
    • A recent article by Barron's questioning the sustainability of the dividend has raised additional concerns.
  • Illustrating Why Colgate-Palmolive Is A Leveraged Buyout Candidate
    Mon, Sep. 29 CL 12 Comments

    Summary

    • A recent Bloomberg article mentioned that Colgate-Palmolive may become a takeover candidate.
    • If successful it would become the largest deal announced this year.
    • I constructed a couple of models to determine Colgate's fair value and potential appeal as a takeover candidate.
  • Examining Yahoo's Value After The Successful Alibaba IPO
    Mon, Sep. 22 YHOO 39 Comments

    Summary

    • The Alibaba IPO was a success, jumping from $68 to over $93 on its first day of trading.
    • Yahoo shareholders were disappointed, as their holding actually closed down on the day.
    • There is a significant value discrepancy embedded in the shares of Yahoo that will be detailed in the article below.
  • Has The Opportunity In Yahoo Passed?
    Wed, Sep. 17 YHOO 94 Comments

    Summary

    • The much anticipated Alibaba IPO will commence trading on Friday.
    • Yahoo by the virtue of its roughly 22% stake in Alibaba is set to handsomely profit from the IPO.
    • The question facing investors is, has the opportunity to purchase Yahoo at an advantageous price passed?