Seeking Alpha

Alexander J. Poulos

 
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  • Illustrating Why I Choose To Invest In IBM Post Earnings
    Yesterday, 11:02 AM IBM 10 Comments

    Summary

    • IBM's earning report was a bit lackluster as the shares sold off immediately after the release.
    • IBM issued guidance for 2015 which indicates the shares are trading deep in value territory.
    • A thorough examination of the press release is necessary to get a better understanding of the transformation of the business.
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Undervalued At Its Current Share Price
    Thu, Jan. 22 MCD 38 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of McDonald's have been stuck in a trading range over the past three years.
    • The $100 level seems to be rarefied air for the company as it will slightly exceed the high from the previous year only to give it all back.
    • Investors are naturally frustrated by the sideways pattern.
    • The Create Your Taste initiative holds as much promise as the McCafe concept.
    • A current investor can lock in a generous yield while waiting for the Create Your Taste platform to revive and grow sales and profits.
  • Illustrating Why I Choose To Invest In IBM Again
    Sat, Jan. 17 IBM 93 Comments

    Summary

    • IBM is a value play.
    • The shares have under performed the market for the past two years.
    • To further compound matters, the shares lost ground in 2014, angering many investors.
    • I have decided to reinvest in the shares as will be outlined below.
  • Taking Advantage Of Foreign Market Weakness To Initiate A Position In Diageo
    Fri, Jan. 16 DEO 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent market weakness has battered shares.
    • The weakness is more pronounced overseas, especially in Europe.
    • As a value investor, bargains tend to emerge during prolonged periods of selling.
    • Such is the case before us with Diageo. The article below will detail my bullish thesis on DEO.
  • Gilead Sciences' Recent Trading Pattern Is Much To Do About Nothing
    Fri, Jan. 16 GILD 160 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Gilead Sciences have been quite volatile over the past 8 weeks.
    • Investors feared the decision by Express Scripts to exclude Harvoni would be followed by other insurance providers.
    • With the recent announcement by Prime Therapeutics, I believe the fear is overblown.
    • The next major catalysts will be in the first week of February, when GILD reports its earnings.
  • My Expectations For Citigroup In 2015
    Thu, Jan. 15 C 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Citigroup is clearly undervalued as they are trading at less than liquidation level.
    • By trading at less than Tangible Book value a large margin of safety is offered to shareholders.
    • All the ingredients are in place for a low risk play with above average gains.
    • All Citigroup is waiting for is a catalyst.
  • AMC Entertainment Holdings Offers A Unique Way To Capitalize On The Drop In Energy Prices
     • Thu, Jan. 8 AMC 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The collapse in the price of oil will have an outsized impact on the US economy creating a diverse group of winning and losing industries.
    • By virtue of lower prices at the pump, additional discretionary funds will be readily available for consumers to spend as they see fit.
    • The consumer discretionary sector will be the prime beneficiary of lower energy prices in 2015.
    • In the article below, I will expand on my bullish thesis on AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.
  • Gilead Sciences' New Contract Exclusivity Helps The Shares Advance
    Wed, Jan. 7 GILD 29 Comments

    Summary

    • The beginning of the trading year has been less than kind for the market bulls.
    • Gilead Sciences bucked the down trend with a 2% advance.
    • The equity outperformed coming off of the announcement of a exclusive deal with CVS Health for its revolutionary Hepatitis C franchise.
    • The article will summarize my current thoughts on GILD..
  • Portfolio Changes For The Fourth Quarter Of 2014
    Dec. 30, 2014 IBM 16 Comments

    Summary

    • The fourth quarter saw an increase in volatility which caught many off guard.
    • With an increase in volatility, some outstanding values emerged.
    • The article below will detail the changes I have made in my portfolio.
  • Making The Difficult Decision To Part Ways With BP
    Dec. 30, 2014 BP 96 Comments

    Summary

    • Geopolitical events have wreaked havoc on the energy market.
    • BP is especially vulnerable due to their 19.75% stake in Rosneft.
    • I have made the decision to limit losses and redeploy capital elsewhere.
  • Eastman Chemical Is An Attractive Play On The Rebound In Worldwide Economic Growth
    Dec. 29, 2014 EMN 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The chemical industry is an excellent way to play the bounce in economic growth.
    • I am impressed with Eastman Chemical's management team as they have transformed the business.
    • The shares are trading at a 20% discount to fair value as will be detailed below.
  • Verizon Currently On The Clearance Rack, Time To Buy
    Dec. 23, 2014 VZ 39 Comments

    Summary

    • Verizon is currently on sale as a price war has broken out in the telecom space.
    • The sell-off in telecom shares offers a patient long-term investor an appealing entry point.
    • As detailed below, I expect Verizon to return roughly 60% over the next five years.
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge
    Dec. 22, 2014 GILD 345 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences is selling off on the announcement of an exclusive deal excluding them from Express Scripts formulary.
    • The stock has sold off more than twelve percent which I view as overdone.
    • The article below will detail my thoughts on the recent sell-off.
  • Examining Gilead Sciences' Future Pipeline
    Dec. 17, 2014 GILD 49 Comments

    Summary

    • The drug pipeline is the lifeblood of all research-based companies.
    • A thorough understanding of the potential embedded in a company's pipeline offers a glimpse into potential for future revenue and profits.
    • Gilead Sciences currently has a real gem in development which I will detail below.
  • Walgreen Breaks Out To New Highs, Further Upside Ahead
    Dec. 15, 2014 WBA 7 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent stellar advance in the shares of Walgreen has made the recent market sell-off a bit easier to take.
    • The shares have taken off upon the announcement of the current CEO's retirement once the Allied Boots merger is completed.
    • I expect further upside ahead as detailed below.
  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet
    Dec. 15, 2014 ESV 57 Comments

    Summary

    • The sudden drop in the price of oil has severely damaged the share price of those in the energy sector.
    • The offshore drillers have really taken it on the chin with most down over 50% for the year.
    • Are we at an investable bottom, or is there further pain ahead.
    • With Seadrill recently eliminating its dividend, how safe is Ensco dividend going forward.
  • Citigroup Breaks Out To A New High
    Dec. 9, 2014 C 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Friday's stellar jobs report lit a fire under financial stocks.
    • It is becoming increasingly likely that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates in 2015.
    • I expect Citigroup will increase above its book value next year as conditions continue to improve.
  • How The Carnage In The Oil Patch Will Negatively Impact Railroads
    Dec. 8, 2014 CNI, CP, UNP 15 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent carnage in the oil patch will reverberate onto the industries that service this sector.
    • The railroad operators who service the frackers will be especially vulnerable to this phenomena.
    • I am patiently awaiting for a bargain to emerge before investing capital into the industry.
  • How I'm Playing The Collapse In The Price Of Oil
    Dec. 8, 2014 XOM, APA, SLB 34 Comments

    Summary

    • The sudden drop in the price of crude oil has caught many by surprise.
    • The damage to the energy sector has been severe as the sector is showing losses for the year.
    • Patience and perseverance is needed here as the down spike will be proven to be short lived.
  • Why Hormel Is Too Expensive At Its Current Price
    Nov. 30, 2014 HRL 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Hormel is a well managed company with an under-leveraged balance sheet.
    • Hormel operates in the food processing industry in what can be considered a defensive play.
    • My earnings per share growth model and DCF model both indicate the shares to be overvalued at its current price.
  • Has John Deere Reached A Cyclical Low?
    Nov. 29, 2014 DE 43 Comments

    Summary

    • The best time to invest in cyclical companies is when they have reached an earnings trough.
    • By waiting for the earnings trough, an investor is mitigating most of the risk in holding the shares.
    • I suspect we will reach an earnings trough in 2015.
  • The FDA Breakthrough Designation Further Validates Regeneron's Pipeline
    Nov. 21, 2014 REGN 17 Comments

    Summary

    • A research based company's pipeline determines its fate going forward.
    • Early positive clinical results can give an investor an early read as to the future path of the company's share price.
    • The recent string of high profile successes have stoked my bullish fervor even more.
  • The Activist Stake In Hertz Continues To Rise
    Nov. 20, 2014 HTZ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Hertz released its updated guidance, which led to a steep sell-off.
    • Thankfully for the longs the shares recouped much of the damage.
    • The activists continue to up their stake, with Jana Partners increasing their stake to 8.3%.
  • Dispelling Some Of The Myths Surrounding Gilead Sciences
    Nov. 18, 2014 GILD 194 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences has sold off recently over fears the company's growth prospects have dimmed.
    • Gilead's best days are yet to come, as the money will continue to roll in.
    • The article below will discuss the threat posed by AbbVie in greater detail.
  • Hertz Offers Tremendous Upside As A Turnaround Commences
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 17, 2014 HTZ 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Opportunity comes to those who are patient and understand the challenges faced.
    • The Hertz story is a bit complicated, yet once studied long enough, the opportunity becomes clear.
    • The recent sell-off was very overdone, as many panicked.
  • David Winters Ravages Coca-Cola's Board Once Again, Stating The Dividend Is At Risk
    Nov. 14, 2014 KO 33 Comments

    Summary

    • David Winters is at it again, taking offense to Coke's newly released executive compensation package.
    • Winters is some one to watch as he successfully pressured the board to amend the pay package.
    • He even shamed Warren Buffett into abstaining from voting for the plan.
    • Is he serious when he states the dividend could be at risk?
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Offers More Upside Than Gilead Sciences
    Nov. 14, 2014 REGN 31 Comments

    Summary

    • Regeneron continues to perform as the shares continue their ascent higher.
    • The company's main compounds continue to show significant promise in Phase III testing.
    • Sanofi holds over 20% of the shares outstanding offering a built in suitor if the compounds deliver on their promise.
    • I expect the shares to potentially outperform Gilead Sciences in 2015 as will be detailed below.
  • Illustrating Google's Fair Value
    Nov. 12, 2014 GOOG, GOOGL 31 Comments

    Summary

    • The internet search giant has sold off quite a bit since hitting all-time highs earlier this year.
    • A cash flow analysis was constructed to determine the fair value of the shares.
    • Google is currently undervalued at its current quote, which makes the shares a compelling buy.
  • General Mills Has Become Interesting Again
    Nov. 12, 2014 GIS 38 Comments

    Summary

    • All great companies hit a temporary rough patch.
    • The key for a long-term investor is to identify those who have entered into a rough patch and build a position in them.
    • Typically, you will be acquiring shares at a discount to their true worth, which will enhance long-term gains going forward.
    • Such is the opportunity before us in General Mills as will be detailed below.
  • Re-Examining My Bullish Thesis On Walgreen
    Nov. 11, 2014 WBA 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Walgreen has recouped quite a bit of the share price it lost in August.
    • Investors were quite short-sighted, in my opinion, in dumping shares of Walgreen.
    • By not pursuing a tax inversion deal, management has been validated by recent Treasury department rule changes making the move less advantageous.
    • The shares continue to offer a compelling, low-risk play in the healthcare field.
  • Did Gilead Sciences Really Disappoint With Its Earnings Announcement?
    Oct. 31, 2014 GILD 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Gilead sold off after what some termed a disappointing earnings release.
    • There is plenty to like in the earnings release.
    • I suspect Gilead will beat fourth quarter numbers as some patients put off treatment to await the approval of Harvoni.
  • Can Activist Pressure Lead To Better Results At McDonald's?
    Oct. 31, 2014 MCD 6 Comments

    Summary

    • McDonald's continues to struggle.
    • Bloomberg reported that the Golden Arches may become an activist target.
    • The article below offers my thoughts on the matter along with a discussion on some of the company's new initiatives.
    • I have updated my fair value model to more accurately reflect McDonald's earnings for 2014.