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Alexander J. Poulos  

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  • Portfolio Changes For The First Quarter Of 2015
    Thu, Mar. 26 AAPL, ALL, AMC 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Volatililty can fray nerves yet may also offer opportunities.
    • The first quarter was marked with quite a bit of volatility, which I have used to my advantage.
    • The article below will detail the changes made to my portfolio along with the reasons why.
  • Sinclair Broadcast Group: Prodigious Cash Flow Augurs Well For Additional Upside
    Thu, Mar. 26 SBGI 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Sinclair Broadcast Group offers current investors a compelling play on the changing landscape of the broadcast TV business.
    • The company in its current form is slated to generate a free cash flow yield of over 35% during the next two years.
    • The 2016 spectrum sale maybe a watershed event for the industry as broadcasters may look to monetize their assets.
    • The median value of SBGI using the FCC method is over $45 per share, a significant premium to where the shares are currently trading for.
  • Why I Sold Out Of Exxon Mobil
    Thu, Mar. 19 XOM 99 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of crude oil is in a proverbial free fall since the middle of last year.
    • Many believe the price will rebound shortly.
    • The recent Exxon Mobil investor day presentation was quite sobering.
    • In the article below, I will detail the reasons why I have parted ways with Exxon Mobil.
  • Illustrating Why Amgen Offers Additional Alpha Versus Gilead Sciences
    Tue, Mar. 17 AMGN 16 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent release of positive data concerning Kyprolis is a big win for Amgen.
    • I expect sales to pick up once the label for Kyprolis expands.
    • I have updated my model for Amgen to take this into account as detailed below.
  • Examining My Bullish Thesis On Citigroup In Light On Yesterday's Announcement
    Thu, Mar. 12 C 34 Comments

    Summary

    • The successful passing of the CCAR should serve as a catalyst for the shares of Citigroup.
    • The Fed granted authorization to increase the dividend to 5 cents per share along with a share repurchase authorization worth over $7 billion dollars.
    • The news is a positive yet when taken with the news of the recent Costco credit card win coupled with the disposal of One Main Financial a compelling picture emerges.
    • The shares are meaningfully undervalued as will be detailed below.
  • Illustrating My Decision To Invest In UPS
    Wed, Mar. 4 UPS 23 Comments

    Summary

    • UPS is a wide moat company that's trading at a fair price.
    • Th recent fourth quarter disappointment has offered long-term investors an attractive entry point into this well-run entity.
    • I'm modeling double-digit gains out through 2019 as will be detailed below.
  • Can The Departure Of Jeff Immelt Hasten GE's Recovery?
    Wed, Mar. 4 GE 49 Comments

    Summary

    • When a company underperforms, an investor will lose faith in the management team.
    • Often times, the Board will step up and force out the CEO in an attempt to revitalize the organization.
    • Bloomberg reports such an event maybe at hand with General Electric.
    • The article below will update my bullish thesis on GE.
  • Updating My Bullish Thesis On AMC Entertainment
    Wed, Mar. 4 AMC 7 Comments

    Summary

    • AMC entertainment continues to outperform this year with the shares up over 30% year to date.
    • The 2015 movie slate is shaping up to be quite strong which will galvanize AMC sales.
    • AMC has already exceeded my expectations. In light of the companies stellar performance I felt it was prudent to revisit my Levered Returns Model.
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust
    Thu, Feb. 26 BPT 141 Comments

    Summary

    • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty trust is prone to bear raids.
    • The precipitous decline seen today is another example of this.
    • I have initiated a position in BPT as I view the shares as due for a sharp bounce as detailed below.
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences
    Tue, Feb. 24 GILD 130 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences recently issued sales guidance for 2015.
    • I thought it would be prudent to update the assumptions made in my Levered Returns model.
    • I continue to view the company as extraordinary as will be detailed below.
  • Capturing The Growth Of The Diabetic Epidemic Via Shares Of Novo Nordisk
    Mon, Feb. 23 NVO 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Diabetes is at epidemic levels worldwide and growing.
    • As the worlds population continues to age and become more sedentary, I expect the in incidence of diabetes to expand.
    • Novo Nordisk through its comprehensive line of insulin therapies is at the forefront of this unfortunate trend.
    • Novo is expected to launch three novel, treatments that will power shares higher over the balance of the decade.
  • Fastenal: A Wide-Moat High-Growth Play With A Dividend Approaching 3%
    Thu, Feb. 19 FAST 59 Comments

    Summary

    • Fastenal is a true wide-moat company with margins north of 50% over the course of the past decade.
    • Fastenal's ability to consistently generate double-digit sales and earnings growth is simply outstanding.
    • In typical short-sighted fashion, the market has marked the shares down as they fret over the company adding additional employees.
    • The article below will detail my bullish thesis on FAST.
    • I expect shares to double over the course of the next decade.
  • Warren Buffett Increases His Stake In Deere, Is It Time To Buy?
    Tue, Feb. 17 DE 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Deere is a wonderful company that is entering into a cyclical trough.
    • The shares are paying an attractive dividend to compensate investors as they await an inevitable cyclical upswing.
    • I was particularly heartened to see Berkshire Hathaway currently controls roughly 5% of all the shares outstanding.
  • Detailing My Bullish Thesis On American Express
    Tue, Feb. 10 AXP 51 Comments

    Summary

    • Wide-moat companies are rare creatures that have built a durable "wall" around their business, thus ensuring their profit margin.
    • It is not often a wide-moat company trades at a below-market multiple.
    • The article below will detail my bullish thesis on American Express.
  • Viacom Is Trading At A Steep Discount To Its Fair Value
    Tue, Feb. 10 VIAB 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Viacom has come under intense selling over the past six months.
    • The Street has cooled towards the pay TV industry as they believe the business model is under assault.
    • The analysts are afraid Dish Networks will drop Viacom's bundle, leading to a loss of the dependable revenue stream when the contract comes up for renewal in 2016.
    • I will detail my bullish thesis on Viacom along with a discussion on the company's generous capital return policy.
  • Detailing Exxon Mobil's Distribution Yield Of 5.4%
    Wed, Feb. 4 XOM 33 Comments

    Summary

    • Exxon Mobil operates in the volatile energy field.
    • The vertically integrated model that Exxon Mobil employs helps to shield profits from the price swings seen in the commodity space.
    • Exxon Mobil's superior business model allows them to consistently pay an ever-rising dividend, making them well suited for the income-seeking investor.
  • 4 Key Points To Look For In Gilead Sciences Earnings Report
    Tue, Feb. 3 GILD 102 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences remains one of the most intriguing companies in my coverage universe.
    • Gilead Sciences revolutionary Hepatitis C program has created an enormous amount of new found profits for the company.
    • I have highlighted four key areas I would like to see the company address during the upcoming earnings conference call.
  • Amgen Offers Impressive Upside As A New Product Cycle Begins
    Sat, Jan. 31 AMGN 33 Comments

    Summary

    • Amgen is entering into a virtuous new product cycle.
    • The plethora of new products should drive sales and earnings higher.
    • I remain bullish on the shares for reasons that will be detailed below.
  • My Bullish Investment Thesis On General Electric
    Wed, Jan. 28 GE 66 Comments

    Summary

    • GE's industrial segments continue to show strong growth with an expectation of $1.10-$1.20 per share in earnings in 2015.
    • The GE Capital division continues to perform well, with a spin-off of the remaining stake in Synchrony financial expected shortly.
    • The key for GE is to continue to shrink the percentage of profits generated by GE Capital while augmenting its industrial divisions.
    • Significant progress will be made in 2015; the shares are quite attractive at their current quote.
  • Illustrating Why I Choose To Invest In IBM Post Earnings
    Tue, Jan. 27 IBM 16 Comments

    Summary

    • IBM's earning report was a bit lackluster as the shares sold off immediately after the release.
    • IBM issued guidance for 2015 which indicates the shares are trading deep in value territory.
    • A thorough examination of the press release is necessary to get a better understanding of the transformation of the business.
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Undervalued At Its Current Share Price
    Thu, Jan. 22 MCD 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of McDonald's have been stuck in a trading range over the past three years.
    • The $100 level seems to be rarefied air for the company as it will slightly exceed the high from the previous year only to give it all back.
    • Investors are naturally frustrated by the sideways pattern.
    • The Create Your Taste initiative holds as much promise as the McCafe concept.
    • A current investor can lock in a generous yield while waiting for the Create Your Taste platform to revive and grow sales and profits.
  • Illustrating Why I Choose To Invest In IBM Again
    Sat, Jan. 17 IBM 93 Comments

    Summary

    • IBM is a value play.
    • The shares have under performed the market for the past two years.
    • To further compound matters, the shares lost ground in 2014, angering many investors.
    • I have decided to reinvest in the shares as will be outlined below.
  • Taking Advantage Of Foreign Market Weakness To Initiate A Position In Diageo
    Fri, Jan. 16 DEO 34 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent market weakness has battered shares.
    • The weakness is more pronounced overseas, especially in Europe.
    • As a value investor, bargains tend to emerge during prolonged periods of selling.
    • Such is the case before us with Diageo. The article below will detail my bullish thesis on DEO.
  • Gilead Sciences' Recent Trading Pattern Is Much To Do About Nothing
    Fri, Jan. 16 GILD 160 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Gilead Sciences have been quite volatile over the past 8 weeks.
    • Investors feared the decision by Express Scripts to exclude Harvoni would be followed by other insurance providers.
    • With the recent announcement by Prime Therapeutics, I believe the fear is overblown.
    • The next major catalysts will be in the first week of February, when GILD reports its earnings.
  • My Expectations For Citigroup In 2015
    Thu, Jan. 15 C 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Citigroup is clearly undervalued as they are trading at less than liquidation level.
    • By trading at less than Tangible Book value a large margin of safety is offered to shareholders.
    • All the ingredients are in place for a low risk play with above average gains.
    • All Citigroup is waiting for is a catalyst.
  • AMC Entertainment Holdings Offers A Unique Way To Capitalize On The Drop In Energy Prices
       • Thu, Jan. 8 AMC 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The collapse in the price of oil will have an outsized impact on the US economy creating a diverse group of winning and losing industries.
    • By virtue of lower prices at the pump, additional discretionary funds will be readily available for consumers to spend as they see fit.
    • The consumer discretionary sector will be the prime beneficiary of lower energy prices in 2015.
    • In the article below, I will expand on my bullish thesis on AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.
  • Gilead Sciences' New Contract Exclusivity Helps The Shares Advance
    Wed, Jan. 7 GILD 29 Comments

    Summary

    • The beginning of the trading year has been less than kind for the market bulls.
    • Gilead Sciences bucked the down trend with a 2% advance.
    • The equity outperformed coming off of the announcement of a exclusive deal with CVS Health for its revolutionary Hepatitis C franchise.
    • The article will summarize my current thoughts on GILD..
  • Portfolio Changes For The Fourth Quarter Of 2014
    Dec. 30, 2014 IBM 16 Comments

    Summary

    • The fourth quarter saw an increase in volatility which caught many off guard.
    • With an increase in volatility, some outstanding values emerged.
    • The article below will detail the changes I have made in my portfolio.
  • Making The Difficult Decision To Part Ways With BP
    Dec. 30, 2014 BP 96 Comments

    Summary

    • Geopolitical events have wreaked havoc on the energy market.
    • BP is especially vulnerable due to their 19.75% stake in Rosneft.
    • I have made the decision to limit losses and redeploy capital elsewhere.
  • Eastman Chemical Is An Attractive Play On The Rebound In Worldwide Economic Growth
    Dec. 29, 2014 EMN 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The chemical industry is an excellent way to play the bounce in economic growth.
    • I am impressed with Eastman Chemical's management team as they have transformed the business.
    • The shares are trading at a 20% discount to fair value as will be detailed below.
  • Verizon Currently On The Clearance Rack, Time To Buy
    Dec. 23, 2014 VZ 39 Comments

    Summary

    • Verizon is currently on sale as a price war has broken out in the telecom space.
    • The sell-off in telecom shares offers a patient long-term investor an appealing entry point.
    • As detailed below, I expect Verizon to return roughly 60% over the next five years.
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge
    Dec. 22, 2014 GILD 345 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences is selling off on the announcement of an exclusive deal excluding them from Express Scripts formulary.
    • The stock has sold off more than twelve percent which I view as overdone.
    • The article below will detail my thoughts on the recent sell-off.