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Alexander J. Poulos

 
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  • Ensco PLC Offers A Sobering Look At The Dynamics Affecting Its Core Markets [View article]
    balieberman,

    Thank you for the compliments. I try to be as concise as possible without losing the audience.
    Sep 2 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is MasterCard Relatively Overvalued? See What The Levered Returns Community Thinks [View article]
    Stocks,

    I don't doubt the virtual processing oligopoly (V,MA, AXP) will continue to have a bright future with excellent growth prospects. The key for an individuals long term performance sis to purchase excellent companies such as these at attractive prices. Having an firm grasp such as what LR is offering the individual investor on fair value allows the individual to "time" the initial entry at an advantage point. I plan on eventually adding both AXP and MA to my portfolio when they go "on sale".
    Aug 28 08:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Underpriced At Its Current Price [View article]
    Cory,

    We shall see. Check back with me in a year to measure progress.
    Aug 28 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Underpriced At Its Current Price [View article]
    The dark smile,

    What we are hoping to do is showcase the user friendly system with a narrative about the company. For an investment to work, I personally have to see not only the math behind it is favorable but the companies back story. As for MCD, there are definitive headwinds that need to be addressed. The restaurant industry outside of CMG has struggled over the past few years as the consumer has held back on discretionary spending.

    MCD comp sales growth has been anemic and consequently the shares have gone basically nowhere over the past few years. Why am I accumulating. Management is actually addressing their number one problem which is slow service speeds. The first part was tackling menu complexity which in my view has been achieved. The second portion is the speed of service which is beginning to be addressed with the test pilot 60 sec guarantee and next year self serve order kiosks in select locals. You will see a nice tailwind with higher consumer discretionary spending.

    By no means is it assured, however in my view with a 3.5% dividend and rising, aggressive capital return plan consistently decreasing the share count my risk to the downside is limited. The set up here is for above average gains with below average risk for those who are willing to simply buy and reinvest the dividend. The equity will outperform over the remaining portion of the decade.
    Aug 27 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Underpriced At Its Current Price [View article]
    David,

    I suspect once MCD addresses the speed of service we will begin to see meaningful comp sales growth. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Aug 26 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Underpriced At Its Current Price [View article]
    Yong,

    Agreed, thanks for reading and commenting.
    Aug 26 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Underpriced At Its Current Price [View article]
    Jay,

    A few months over $100 a share may cause the board to consider splitting the shares. Keep in mind the stock is purchased by quite a few first time investors who maybe put off by a triple digit share price. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Aug 26 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Admiral Group Plc Offers A Very Compelling Yield With The Potential For Capital Gains [View article]
    drew,

    That is exactly what I thought I saw as well. Thanks for reading and enjoy the research.
    Aug 26 09:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Admiral Group Plc Offers A Very Compelling Yield With The Potential For Capital Gains [View article]
    elvislevel,

    The run a very lean operation. The other interesting component is the use of reinsurance to mitigate the risk born by the parent company. Thanks for reading and commenting
    Aug 26 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Admiral Group Plc Offers A Very Compelling Yield With The Potential For Capital Gains [View article]
    WBOS,

    AMIGY hasn't offered any specific numbers. Instead they mentioned it takes 10 years to build a solid book of business. The Spanish market is the most mature with 2.5 years to go before hitting the ten year mark.
    Aug 26 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Underpriced At Its Current Price [View article]
    Compounding,

    What you have pointed out is one of the main flaws with this type of exercise. I used a 3% terminal value which is a pretty standard figure. I suspect the last few years of sales growth is an anomaly and 3%+ minimum will be the new standard going forward yet there aren't any guarantees. The key for MCD will be wage/job growth along with speed of service and menu innovation. I suspect we will get there, however it will take some time. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Aug 26 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Underpriced At Its Current Price [View article]
    user 9363041,

    Well stated, thanks for reading and commenting.
    Aug 26 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Admiral Group Plc Offers A Very Compelling Yield With The Potential For Capital Gains [View article]
    WBos,

    The short term drop in profitability of the online comparison site I believe to be a fleeting event. A competitor had a very aggressive promotion drawing additional attention to themselves. The price comparison portal is a very small part of the profitability of the company. I am more interested to see how long it takes the Spanish and French markets to turn profitable. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Aug 26 07:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Underpriced At Its Current Price [View article]
    Dividend Sleuth,,

    You are very welcome.
    Aug 25 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Underpriced At Its Current Price [View article]
    Anthony,

    The anemic sales growth used in the models numbers is a reflection of the lack of meaningful sales growth over the past few years. In spite of this headwind, MCD continued to grow earnings and raise dividends. I strongly suspect we will continue to see the unemployment rate continue to decline which will aid MCD. Hence the macro environment has improved a great deal from where we were 3 years ago. I expect 2015 to continue this trend.

    Every business faces challenges that they must overcome. MCD is taking positive steps to address their deficiencies which I believe will led to higher profits and naturally a higher share price. It is up to the individual investor to decide if they wish to pursue this particular opportunity. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Aug 25 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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