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Alexander J. Poulos  

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  • Biogen Idec's Alzheimer's Disease Data Is Significant: I Was Wrong [View article]
    IH,

    I echoed your exact sentiments as I have seen many failed treatments for AH over the years, most notably from LLY. I have been watching BIIB with interest, yet the data is very compelling. I bought a small stake on Friday at the open, with the intention of scaling up. I see the ravages of AH everyday, if the med shows minimal efficiency it will be approved similar to Namenda/Donepezil.

    A viable AH treatment is an easy $10 billion with a quick ramp up. The demand is quite real and growing due to the aging of the population. The FDA will fast track so perhaps its a two year wait. The shares are justified here based on the strength of BIIB current commercialized pipeline. A viable AH med, you will see a minimum of a $150 billion market cap. In many ways, biotech has lapsed traditional pharma as the fountain of innovation. I enjoyed the article, thanks for sharing.
    Mar 26, 2015. 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sinclair Broadcast Group: Prodigious Cash Flow Augurs Well For Additional Upside [View article]
    carnegie,

    I agree with you, yet I can't quantify just yet what the new transmission standard will look like. The shares of SBGI are very undervalued based in cash flow and as you have astutely pointed out we are getting a free call option. Actually we are getting an above average yield to allow the story to play out. I fear many will look and dismiss the company due to the debt on the books without looking at the big picture. There is a tremendous amount of value in the company waiting to be unlocked. I hope management continues to repurchase shares here while the price is depressed. Thanks gain for your comments.
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sinclair Broadcast Group: Prodigious Cash Flow Augurs Well For Additional Upside [View article]
    La marque,

    Thank you. I suspect your thesis is correct with the FCC eventually eliminating OTA broadcast to a pay for access model. I also feel the value of the spectrum is far higher than what is currently estimated. In my view, the shares are undervalued just based on the cash flow they will generate over the next two years. If the auction goes off better than expected, the Street will re-rate the shares higher. In the interim, management seems intent ongoing "semi-private" by repurchasing as many A shares as possible on the open market. I would be quite happy to see a dividend bump this year, how much of a bump due you view as reasonable?
    Mar 26, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sinclair Broadcast Group: Prodigious Cash Flow Augurs Well For Additional Upside [View article]
    carnegie,

    You make an excellent point. The new broadcast standards are a few years down the road. I decided to focus on the shorter term (next 12 month catalysts) that should push the shares higher. There is a lot to like here. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Investment Case For The EURO STOXX 50 [View article]
    Doc,

    Great article as always. I echo the sentiments yet I have decided to invest the trend via HEDJ. I agree with sliman21 above, the Euro will continue to fall versus the dollar. I actually expect it to fall below par, before the move is down perhaps sometime in late 2016. Thanks as always for the article.
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out Of Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Phenom and Timmies,

    For a stable income play that may actually benefit from lower energy prices, have you considered UPS? The yield are quite similar with UPS poised to offer more aggressive raises as the decade progresses. http://seekingalpha.co...

    For those who are long the shares with a very low cost basis such as Buyandhold and more than likely Phenom, the best course of action is to sit tight and reinvest the dividend. The tax bill to exit the position is quite onerous. In my particular case, the shares were held in a Roth so the tax implications were not a consideration. The proceeds were initially placed in Bac yet after the very disappointing showing at the CCAR the position has been closed. The funds have been invested in SBGI earlier this week which is performing quite nicely. I submitted an article detailing my thesis which should be published shortly. Thanks to all for reading and commenting.
    Mar 22, 2015. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out Of Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Not exactly a positive.

    No matter how unfavorable market fundamentals may be to Bakken operators, North Dakota likely will see a big surge in production this June, potentially besting another supply record even if prices continue to crater, according to the director of the state's Department of Mineral Resources.
    Production is expected to remain at 1.1M-1.2M bbl/day over the next few months before skyrocketing in June by nearly 10%, or an additional 75K-100K bbl/day, propelled by a state-mandated time limit on drilling and the expected trigger of a major oil tax incentive.

    Link-http://bit.ly/1xmUifG

    Production needs to fall to stabilize the price. Until we see production levels decline expect further weakness in the oil patch.
    Mar 20, 2015. 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out Of Exxon Mobil [View article]
    rd,

    Yes, how are they going to pay for them. Management is loath to issue debt as they want to keep the triple AAA credit and room to spend gobs on capex. FCF will be lower due to energy prices leaving treasury stock. Okay fine, however you will be issuing shares that you paid $90-110 for less than 2 years ago. Keep in mind the XTO purchase hasn't produced the stellar returns management initially expected and has caused XOM to underperfom versus CVX this decade. Thanks as always for reading and commenting.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out Of Exxon Mobil [View article]
    George,

    Fair enough, thanks as always for reading and commenting.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out Of Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Jerry,

    I got caught long quite a few energy plays in mid 2014. In hindsight I should have dismissed all of them yet did not foresee the swift fall in the price of oil. Can't win them all. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out Of Exxon Mobil [View article]
    CR,

    I definitely wrote the above comments. The change came on after the investor day presentation. Quite simply the price of commodities are going lower partly due to the strong dollar and the other portion is supply hasn't dropped yet. It will happen over the next couple of months yet I fear another leg down. Watch the chart, not the most constructive one out there.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out Of Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Timmies,

    Well said. There are other opportunities out there. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out Of Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Rose,

    If XOM was a longer term holding with a much lower cost basis, the article would have never been written. I respect your position which corresponds with Buy and Holds, for this reason I purposely titled the piece why I sold it not why everyone should. For those who hold it as an income play with a low cost basis it would be foolish to part with it here and pay the cap gains tax. Thanks as always for reading and commenting.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out Of Exxon Mobil [View article]
    VT,

    Thanks for the kind words.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out Of Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Buy,

    I share your aversion to paying taxes, it seems the Greeks have made it the national pastime in Greece. On a more serious tone, my shares were purchased in 2013 so my cost basis is roughly were the shares are trading at today. Quiet simply, there are far more attractive candidates out there than XOM. The industry will continue to suffer through hard times for a while, not the best recipe for overall gains.

    If my original shares were purchased in 1970, I would also never be inclined to sell. If I had to venture a guess, the dividend received may actually be worth more than what you initially paid for the shares. Different scenarios for different investors. Thanks for reading and offering a different viewpoint.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
3,365 Comments
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