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Alexander J. Poulos

 
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  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    SRB,

    Thank you for posting the weekly script data. Is it interesting that the bears on GILD are nowhere to be found today. It is amazing how data and facts overcome fear mongering.
    Dec 26, 2014. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    pca,

    ESI likes to maintain an air of secrecy around negotiations. We will be able to determine the relative pricing once ABBV reports second quarter earnings. I would instead focus on the weekly script number for clues to how well VP and Sovaldi/Harvoni are doing. I suspect VP will underperform.
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    Jim,

    The low number may very well prove to be quite accurate. I attempted to allude to this fact in my article based on US population and ESI coverage. I would like to further add of the 77k eligible how many have failed previous treatment with Ribavirin and how many have co morbidities that would make the VP a poor choice for them such as severe fibrosis. I suspect the actual number will be even lower and the fear of patients being warehoused waiting for VP is simply foolishness. The weekly script data will bear this out. Thanks for posting, perhaps when people step back and objectively look at the numbers they will realize this is a massive overreaction.
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    CSYJ,

    Thank you very much for the links provided above. The lay person tends to gravitate to the argument that the cheapest alternative should grab the lion share of the business as if this particular marketplace follows the same pricing dynamics of say food retailing. The far more important metric is overall cost of care which is a more detailed undertaking. In the case of the co-infected person who is stabilized on Atriplia for HIV would be contraindicated from starting the Viekira pak.

    I would like to expand a bit further on the use of Ribavirin as to me this is the biggest non-starter of the treatment. It is not unreasonable to conclude that those who are say over 50 have sought out treatment for the disease at some point in the past and have used Ribavirin. The side effect profile is simply horrendous. I realize ABBV clinical data showed the pak to be well tolerated, yet I am skeptical under real world conditions this will hold up. I maintain the VP is an inferior treatment and will fail to garner the lionshare of the marketplace in spite of ESI recent gambit.

    The vast majority of clinicians are interested in their patients well being. We have to keep in mind that the clinicians reputation is at stake here, once a poor reputation is earned it is virtually impossible to change this perception. That being said, the easiest way to ruin a reputation is to prescribe an inferior product due to reimbursement issues. The HCV community is well informed especially in the internet age. A wealth of information is readily available and those seeking treatment are far more well informed than in the past. They will rightfully demand the best treatment and ESI gambit will backfire. The weekly script data will soon bare this out. Thank you very much for posting and the excellent links. I enjoyed them especially the last one.
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon Currently On The Clearance Rack, Time To Buy [View article]
    dawgdog,

    It seems VZ wants you to have a round lot, is your holdings through a broker or some other holding company. There are less costs involved in holding round lots this is the most likely reason for the move. The stock is not an aggressive growth type, more of a buy, hold and reinvest type. I can't offer you specific advise, yet the shares are undervalued and offer an attractive value at this price. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon Currently On The Clearance Rack, Time To Buy [View article]
    oilrich,

    You are very welcome.
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    SRB,

    There is no doubt there was large institutional based moves as they took money out of biotech. Is this a tradeable bottom? I think it is yet we will find out over the course of the next few weeks.
    Dec 25, 2014. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    Robert,

    It was an abbreviated day and the biotechs bounced. Merry Christmas to you and a prosperous New Year.
    Dec 25, 2014. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    Fear,

    Thank you very much for the compliment. Incidentally it was your article along with Doctorx that led me to thoroughly study GILD. I have spent many fruitful hours researching them and have become quite comfortable with their outlook. I actually added to my position yesterday at $86 and change as the sell-off seems very overdone to me.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    somedata,

    Just to add some additional color to your comments, I wait for large institutional dumping. I have used it numerous times over the past few years as an excellent entry point. Some examples GOOG 5/12 SBUX in7/12, ORCL 6/13, GILD 4/14, GOOGL, 12/14, WAG 8/14, HSY 7/14. The point I am trying to illustrate here is the major advantage an individual investor has over the institutions. They are quite aware of GILD value, yet are forced to sell due to short term performance issues. They are desperately trying to prop up year end results. Lets see where GILD is trading at when the calendar flips to January.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    Mike,

    As of 9:45am on 12/24 GILD is up to $92 per share retaking the 200DMA. At what point do the shorts cover and drive the shares higher. The clock is ticking on them. Volume is much lower today, I suspect the institutional dumping has abated.
    Dec 24, 2014. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    alfons,

    Well stated and I firmly agree with your conclusion.
    Dec 24, 2014. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon Currently On The Clearance Rack, Time To Buy [View article]
    awayk,

    As an aside, I tend to add some low beta plays such as VZ, CL, XOM, GIS to negate some of the volatility of my biotech holdings. The strategy is working as biotech is selling off aggressively yet the portfolio is in the green. Next year should be a good one with some volatility.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon Currently On The Clearance Rack, Time To Buy [View article]
    rockjcp,

    I agree the key for VZ is to pay down debt. I do not foresee an aggressive share reduction plan in the near future. The debt reduction plan is a priority. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon Currently On The Clearance Rack, Time To Buy [View article]
    awayk,

    The reason for my optimism is rooted in S balance sheet. The company hasn't been profitable in over 6 years. Hardly the type of financial condition that can withstand a prolonged price war. A similar case can be made for TMUS as well. I suspect 2015, they will be forced to focus on profits which will bring an abrupt end to the "price war". Watch the churn rates for a clue to the effectiveness of the promotions. so far, it has had a minimal impact on both T and VZ. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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