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Alexander J. Poulos  

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  • AstraZeneca: A High-Yield Play In The Burgeoning Oncology Field [View article]
    Doc,

    Thanks for the kind words. I decided to release this piece after the recent Barron's article discussing the oncology space. AZN received scant coverage, a major oversight in my opinion. Let's see how the story plays out from here.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil - Additional Pain Ahead For Energy Investors [View article]
    Placebo,

    I love the profile picture, we could all use one today. I found it quite interesting that oil again bounced at $40 per barrel. Yes, the world is awash with supply. A small amount of disruption or supply reduction can quickly bring the market back into balance. I am of the opinion we will see 60-70 per barrel next year, quite a bit lower than the double digit numbers posted in the first half of 2014. At those levels most of the oil majors will be profitable, not gangbuster numbers just adequate. We will see a further reduction in CapEx budgets which will eventually lead to the next shortage/price spike.
    Aug 21, 2015. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Approaching An Investable Bottom In The Shares Of Caterpillar? [View article]
    tikigod18,

    I am starting to come along to that line of thinking. The market broke down today yet oil held in there. We are in interesting times.
    Aug 20, 2015. 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sinclair Broadcasting: Double-Digit Cash Flow, Multiple Catalysts To Drive Stock [View article]
    REB,

    Excellent points. For SBGI to say give up a station in a major market a large premium well over cash flow will need to be paid by the acquirer. Otherwise, why sell out especially when you generate a large amount of cash. There is a ton of value embedded in the shares, interestingly few will talk about it.
    Aug 19, 2015. 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sinclair Broadcasting: Double-Digit Cash Flow, Multiple Catalysts To Drive Stock [View article]
    Tom,

    Not at this time. The interest rate on the debt is in the low 5% range, very manageable here. SBGI is at its cap for the number of broadcast stations it is allowed to own, I doubt we will see additional M&A activity. Can't wait for the results of the auction. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Aug 19, 2015. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Approaching An Investable Bottom In The Shares Of Caterpillar? [View article]
    stockdox,

    I suspect the better opportunity is in the oil patch. We just saw crude trade below $41 today, it will be interesting to see if they can push it below $40. A sub $40 handle would be a site nobody wants, many producers would be losing money per barrel pumped.
    Aug 19, 2015. 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Approaching An Investable Bottom In The Shares Of Caterpillar? [View article]
    jstratt,

    Excellent points! I am watching this space quite closely, we may not be at an investable bottom yet. Significant gains will be had by those who make a timely entry. I am less certain we will see capitulation selling in the third quarter, my guess is towards the end of the fourth quarter. As always, thanks for reading and commenting.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Approaching An Investable Bottom In The Shares Of Caterpillar? [View article]
    Mark,

    Commodity stabilization is the million dollar question. I suspect we will see stabilization in the oil patch before the metals. My guess would be at some pint next year for the metals although the timing is far from certain. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Approaching An Investable Bottom In The Shares Of Caterpillar? [View article]
    tyler94,

    The DE reference was included to draw parallels between the two entities. There is some overlap between the two which in my view makes the comparison valid. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil - Additional Pain Ahead For Energy Investors [View article]
    aftermath,

    An interesting idea, thanks for sharing.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Current Price Target On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    SRB,

    I certainly wouldn't mind if the numbers picked up a bit here. The key remains future revenue visibility, pipeline viability and competitive threats. I remain long GILD although I have closed the option positions at a profit to reduce risk.
    Aug 15, 2015. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs sees upside for Hertz Global [View news story]
    A better way to value HTZ as currently constituted is by EBITDA. With an EBITDA expectations of roughly $1.5 billion this year a seven multiple nets a value of 10.5 billion or $23 per share. The spin-off of HERC should unlock additional value not counting additional cost cutting measures along with an expected $1 billion dollar share repurchase plan.
    Aug 13, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil - Additional Pain Ahead For Energy Investors [View article]
    Hardog,

    Agreed XOM is the largest, most stable play. My suspicion is the greatest value will be seen in the middle tier producers. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil - Additional Pain Ahead For Energy Investors [View article]
    OPEC pumped the most crude last month in more than three years as Iran returned output to the highest level since international sanctions were strengthened in 2012. The 12-member group, responsible for 40% of world oil supplies, raised output in July by 100,700 barrels a day to 31.5M. The increase came even as Saudi Arabia, which often curbs output toward the end of the summer, told OPEC it cut production by the most in almost a year. Crude futures -1.6% to $44.26/bbl.
    Aug 11, 2015. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil - Additional Pain Ahead For Energy Investors [View article]
    Warren,

    The oversupply in the oil patch places downward pressure on the price of the commodity. Traditionally, you would see OPEC cut production in an attempt to stabilize the market. The free fall began last November when the Saudis refused to cut production and we have arrived at our current predicament. Many believed the price would bounce by now, especially with rig count declining as much as it has. Yet as shown by the numbers above, supply continues to come to market. I suspect the price of the commodity along with the producers will remain weak here. I am in no rush to venture in, the more conservative play is to sit back and allow the story to play out. Once supply firms up, there will be plenty of time to enter in. Thanks for reading and taking the time to comment.
    Aug 11, 2015. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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