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Alexander J. Poulos  

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  • Can The Departure Of Jeff Immelt Hasten GE's Recovery? [View article]
    Paul,

    Well said, thanks for reading and commenting.
    Mar 4, 2015. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Bullish Thesis On AMC Entertainment [View article]
    Andrew,

    In your opinion, what would be a valid EV/EBITDA ratio?
    Mar 4, 2015. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster: The Best Stock I Completely Whiffed On [View article]
    CWMF,

    I most confess, I missed this one last year as well. The most similar company is SAM, I suspect both will be acquired before the decade is over
    Mar 4, 2015. 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen: The Best Biotech Stock You Don't Own [View article]
    Dan,

    Thank you for the positive mention. I appreciate it. If I may, I would like to touch upon a recent development. AMGN's Kyprolis showed positive results when compared with Velcade a $2.7 billion dollar drug. Kyprolis sales are quite anemic, a situation that may reverse based on new clinical data. Great article Dan, keep them coming.
    Mar 3, 2015. 05:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boston Beer - Competition Is Causing A Hangover [View article]
    VI,

    I agree with your thesis. I would be willing to pay a bit more for the shares, roughly $220 as I view them as a takeout candidate.
    Mar 3, 2015. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A Trading Shift From Stocks To Treasuries [View article]
    Doc,

    Excellent article as always. The P?E shown by VL has indeed been higher, both in the 1999-2000 time frame (from memory). The difference between now and then is interest rates. i can vividly remember customers telling me, hey I bought XYZ bond at an interest rate north of 6%, who needs the stock market. Very prescient words, one's I have never forgotten. Fast forward to today, certain areas are very frothy (retailers and restaurants) however rates are quite low. I suspect the rally will end when the Fed normalizes rates which equates to a 30 year T-bond of 4%. You will see a sudden rush of money forever out of the market.

    As for ED, a contratrade is setting up possibly for the summer time. I am sure we will have some sort of "scare" which will cause money to flow into the sector. The XLU is now officially on my watch list. Thanks again.
    Mar 3, 2015. 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Hardog,

    Banks are necessary for the modern economy to function and thrive. When you can pick one up at less than liquidation value you have yourself a steal. Lets see what the CCAR process brings this year. My hunch is banks will trade at a multiple to book value which in C's case is a share price of $70.
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Anuj,

    Ponder this question as I have. Why does the equity continue to trade at a level well above what most models show? I suspect the answer has to do with the ultimate end payment from the liquidation of the trust and the length of life remaining. The market tends to be pretty efficient, there have been plenty of instances where we will see irrational pricing/behavior. That being said, BPT does not fall into this camp. The trust tends to rise and fall with the price of oil, peaking in the summer and selling off in the fall/winter time. Thanks for your comments. ultimately time will tell what the true value of BPT is.
    Mar 2, 2015. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Anuj,

    While many may not appreciate MM style, he may not be wrong on BPT. As we have touched base on in the past, I firmly believe the trust is nearly impossible to model. There are simply too many variables. Let me throw out an additional couple to ponder. The chargeable cost gains expected factor in a 1.5% CPI gain which in most times is reasonable. However, the normal inflation gauges are negative for the first couple of months due in large part to the drop in energy. An argument can be made the chargeable cost ramp up may not come to pass and may be adjusted down a bit. If this is indeed the case the trust will continue to produce for a longer period of time. Keep in mind many argued the escalating tax rate would harm BPT yet as he have seen the rate was reduced as illustrated in my response to chinaren towards the beginning of the comment stream.

    The second variable is what is left over once the trust is no longer able to meaningfully return a dividend. Everyone assumes the value is zero however as MM has pointed out the field is liable to continue to be economically viable it's just the trusts portion is not. I suspect there is value in the land yet I ca not place a reasonable valuation on the value however I believe it is more than zero.

    I am comfortable with my purchase price, I suspect it will be a profitable holding. BPT may not be the most suitable long term holding yet profitable entries can be made when the shares suffer what seems to be an annual "bear raid".
    Mar 2, 2015. 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Underpriced At Its Current Price [View article]
    Cory,

    I would say MCD has some momentum behind them right now. My position is up 7.2% not including the dividend that will be paid shortly. I suspect we will see the shares break out here which should translate into a 20% total gain. Not bad at all.
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Million,

    Please elaborate more on ESV, I am intrigued by the name having followed them for the past 18 months.
    Mar 2, 2015. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Seattle,

    Thank you, I suspect the shares will hit $74 next week which will have recovered all of the ground lost to the JP Morgan call.
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Million,

    Feel free to elaborate on your thoughts. I would appreciate your opinion, you were correct on BPT last year.
    Feb 27, 2015. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Bill,

    Tough to tell, the holders of BPT became "spooked" and decided to sell out. From my view, it seems like an overreaction similar to what we have seen in the past. My suspicion is the selling pressure is done and we will see the shares recover most of the ground lost. At minimum a low risk trade able entry is at hand. Others are free to debate the merits of the trust via lifespan, chargeable costs etc.
    Feb 26, 2015. 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    john,

    I made a similar argument with a prudent investor, read his articles and some of his comment streams for a more accurate reflection . In my opinion, you can't model the trust very well. Keep in mind the trust termination may very well be off by more than a decade which changes the picture. Watch the production levels for a clue as to the underlying health of the field.
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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