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Alexander J. Poulos  

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  • Why I Am Exiting My Position In General Electric [View article]
    Qniform,

    It boggles the mind how some will fault you for taking a profit. The name of the game here is to make money. When a companies outlook doesn't fit my original thesis, its time to move on. Thanks as always for reading and commenting.
    Apr 17, 2015. 11:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Exiting My Position In General Electric [View article]
    leeskyblue,

    I can appreciate where you are coming from. I am in the middle of my career where income is not the primary objective which allows me to move out of GE. If I needed the dividend income, I would not be exiting the position. Thanks fore reading and commenting.
    Apr 17, 2015. 09:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Exiting My Position In General Electric [View article]
    buyandhold 2012,

    I agree with you on the comment concerning high flying momentum stocks. NFLIX run a couple of days ago simply defies logic. Where i digress with you is the role of research. The more time put in understanding the business and its underlying prospects the more informed decision one can make. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Apr 17, 2015. 09:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Exiting My Position In General Electric [View article]
    Brad,

    Actually I was inclined to sell on Monday, yet thought we might see a follow through if the earnings report came in better then expected. The other earnings reports I was following today were MAT, and SLB both of which finished up on the day. GE seems to be hit with significant selling at this point, I suspect those who aren't enamored with managements vision are using the current price as a reason to exit. For me it was always a trade, there are other industrial plays that are far better run and have performed much better over the past 5 and ten years. I wish them the best of luck with the transition, their over reliance on the fiance division almost sunk the entire company.

    On a side note, I had the awful timing in 2008 of buying in at $30. My initial purchase of GE was in 2008 at $30 based in a 4% yield and the ability to compound the dividend. Needless to say, the $30 mark gave way quite quickly. I reinvested all dividends received and purchased additional shares in the low to mid teens to average down to roughly $16 per share. The position was closed in November of 2012 at $21 and small change for a tidy profit. Not the best call, yet with diligence and additional timely purchases the position posted a compounded annual gain of 5.59%. The move today is my second go around with GE.
    Apr 17, 2015. 09:27 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Exiting My Position In General Electric [View article]
    maybenot,

    The clairvoyant answer should have been sell last Friday and place the proceeds in PM. That would have been a great move. As always, thanks for reading and commenting.
    Apr 17, 2015. 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Exiting My Position In General Electric [View article]
    lakeaffect,

    Thank you. The shares performed much faster than expected. I am pleased with the outcome and will update my next move.
    Apr 17, 2015. 07:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Exiting My Position In General Electric [View article]
    waytule,

    Actually I am ambivalent towards Mr Immelt. I have successfully traded out of GE twice over the past ten years. I am not comfortable holding theshares here however i wish them the best of luck. If another opportunity presents itself in Ge, I will return.
    Apr 17, 2015. 07:29 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Exiting My Position In General Electric [View article]
    doc47,

    The SYF deal is expected to close by year end and is still on the table. The SYF spin-off is part of the share repurchase scheme hatched by the board. I am pleased with the results of the trade, I suspect there will be additional opportunities shortly. Thanks again for reading and commenting.
    Apr 17, 2015. 07:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting My Decision To Sell Phillip Morris International [View article]
    Occams,

    My call last July was spot on and my decision to enter in again was validated by the market. If I had stood I would have less than I do now due to the stellar run put in by ALL. In the end, its all about performance.
    Apr 16, 2015. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting My Decision To Sell Phillip Morris International [View article]
    Rose,

    Very pleased with today's outcome.
    Apr 16, 2015. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    john,

    $105 seems to be the magic number here as string support comes in at that price. I am happy with my price as it is quite difficult to pick bottoms. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Apr 15, 2015. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    UNP held up quite well today making up most of the ground lost.
    Apr 14, 2015. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Examining General Electric's Capital Strategy [View article]
    KK,

    The mutual fund of various different industrial business's is the same model employed by UTX, HON, DOV and other competitors as they compete over multiple product lines. I have no issue with the industrial mix, they should do well here.

    A more valid point is the earnings composition going forward. On the CC, GE mentioned they expect continued double digit industrial growth out into 2018. Lets err on the side of caution and reduce the figure to 8% compounded. We net out roughly $13.8 billion in revenue and the same GE capital number of $0.8 nets out $14.6 billion. Lets divide that over 8.3 billion shares not the lowest end of the range and we get $1.76 in earnings. Applying the same 17 multiple nets a target price of $29.92 a bit higher than Fridays close. I can't stress it enough, GE will need to shrink its shares to 8 billion to really move the share price. Using the same figures except dividing by 8 billion shares outstanding nets $1.82 in earnings and a share price of $31.

    Naturally, if the industrial divisions continue to expand at a double digit clip your $2.1 in earnings power comes into play. Applying the same 17 multiple nets a share price of $35.7 plus dividends accrued. Not a bad haul, I am thinking the value lies between 30-32, the upcoming earnings release should be quite interesting. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    Ernie,

    I do not have any insight into the fuel surcharge issue. I was comforted by the quote shown above from the recent CC transcript. I am certain the question will be raised at the next CC, perhaps management will offer additional clarity.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    Michael,

    The carload decrease in coal is not the main issue here. The key is how will this impact earnings estimates for the first quarter and going forward. As you know, UNP gains over the past five years has come mainly from the increase in fees and lower operating costs. UNP remains an efficiency/ pricing power story not a volume growth play. I am optimistic earnings will come in okay here, management is quite astute and if they expected a shortfall they would have come out and warned already.

    Take a look at the price action in FAST today the third industrial play I entered into this year. Sales growth was quite tepid in March with the whole quarter's worth of sales increase came in at a lower rate than expected. The reason why the shares are up is GM are higher, am unexpected surprise. If you look at the chart of FAST, the shares traded off in Early March, yet with today's release they have made up almost all of the ground lost.

    The transports, (in my case UNP and UPS) will do quite well when economic expansion picks up in the second quarter. As you know the port strike backlog will need to be worked out which should aid earnings estimates. A modicum of patience here should be well rewarded by year end. Thank you for commenting and sharing your extensive knowledge of the industry. I greatly appreciate the comments.
    PS-I re-read the recent confernec call transcript and woukld like to mention a tidbit many may have glossed over.
    "Slide 22 provides more detail on our core pricing trends in 2014. Fourth quarter core pricing came in at 3% reflecting steady improvement throughout the year and a more favorable pricing environment. For the full year, core pricing was around 2.5% demonstrating our commitment to market pricing at reinvestable levels above inflation. While 2014 was a legacy light year, we do expect to see some benefit in 2015 for legacy renewals and I’m pleased to announce we have successfully retained 100% of the legacy business that was up for renewal beginning in 2015. In addition, we have also successfully renegotiated a year early, the legacy business that was due to expire in 2016. With the exception of only a few small contracts in the out years, we have now successfully addressed all of our remaining legacy contracts.
    Cowen came out today stating they expect a weaker pricing enviornment. UNP seems to have their renewals locked up for 2015 as shown in the quote above.
    http://bit.ly/1CUX6MV
    Apr 14, 2015. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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