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Alexander J. Poulos

 
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  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet [View article]
    David,

    The sector has value just not right now. If the price of oil didn't collapse here, the shares would be trading in the 30's. The drillers have been caught in a perfect storm which has battered all the of the players in the industry. It will take time for the final wash out to occur. With that backdrop in mind, the wisest decision was yours when you decided to bypass the shares. I wish I had done so as well, yet I was able to mitigate the loss to roughly 10%. A lesson learned. Thanks for reading and adding to the conversation.
    Dec 15, 2014. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet [View article]
    Jack,

    I would avoid the sector here. That being said, I am do not believe ESV will declare bankruptcy however some of the smaller less well capitalized players will. Lots more pain ahead. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 15, 2014. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet [View article]
    Aging,

    I did, please see the link here http://seekingalpha.co...

    Take a look at some of the nasty comments the article generated.
    Dec 15, 2014. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet [View article]
    31October,

    Thanks for the kind words. The link above my picture will bring you to the Levered Returns site where you will be able to build your own models. Its free to join, take a look. I will continue to follow the story and update the model when warranted. At some point in the future, ESV will become an excellent buy, the time is unfortunately not here yet.
    Dec 15, 2014. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet [View article]
    Mike,

    I concur, thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 15, 2014. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet [View article]
    aging,

    I actually exited ESV in July which was a fortuitous event. I wrote about the downside in August in an article that can be seen here. http://seekingalpha.co...

    The bottom has not been put in place and I expect further pain for the drillers.

    As for peak oil, a discredited idea once again. The world is not running out of oil. It has a shortage of cheap oil.
    Dec 15, 2014. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet [View article]
    Profit,

    Until management issues guidance as to what capex numbers will be for 2016, I will continue to use an average number. The key for the drillers remains the price of oil. Thank you for reading and adding to the conversation.
    Dec 15, 2014. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Walgreen Breaks Out To New Highs, Further Upside Ahead [View article]
    Asta,

    WAG fell below $30 on the announcement of the Allied Boots stake in the summer of 2012. See chart provided in the article. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 15, 2014. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walgreen Breaks Out To New Highs, Further Upside Ahead [View article]
    might,

    It all depends if they reincorporate. It looks like traders expect them to move to Switzerland. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walgreen Breaks Out To New Highs, Further Upside Ahead [View article]
    IBrownrig,

    If WAG does indeed follow through and reincorporate overseas, the share are very much undervalued. Strong momentum here. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet [View article]
    ckarabin,

    I couldn't agree more. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet [View article]
    Clubford,

    They are used to illustrate a point. The coming price wars that will be unleashed as the drillers fight to maintain contracts will maintain pressure on their share price. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet [View article]
    Profit,

    Correct there are no new builds past 2016, however ESV has traditionally burned through a large amount of capex. Take a look at past statements and you will clearly see this. The number used was an average, the key event for ESV and all of the offshore drillers will be where the floor on oil is set. After we have price discovery, the next factor will be the capex plans of the E&P and oil majors as they are the drillers main customers. I suspect we may have a recovery in 2016 if oil bottoms by the first half of 2015. If not we are looking at a 2017 event. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet [View article]
    rjroberts,

    There is no doubt that ESV is best of breed. That being said, the industry is under tremendous strain here. I suspect it will take longer for the wash out period to occur than you are projecting. You very well may see a tradable bounce in January however a final bottom won't be put in until the price of oil finds a sustained floor. We are nowhere near this point. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Pacific Railway: Nowhere To Go But Down [View article]
    Doyle,

    A very well written recap of the challenges ahead for CP. I would like to see a similar article detailing CNI. I typically do not short equities yet CP in my view is a tempting short here. With the stunning drop in the price of crude oil, I fail to see how they will maintain the current level of car loads of crude. I expect to see volume decline and hence earnings.
    Dec 13, 2014. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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