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Alexander J. Poulos  

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  • Illustrating Why Hershey Remains The Best Value In The Food Processing Space [View article]
    pete,

    I suspect this issues you raised are some that are plaguing HSY in China. The acquisition of Golden Monkey is not proceeding smoothly, they just replaced the head of the transition team recently. That being said, I expect the issues to be addressed shortly, the underlying demand is strong with steady growth for many years ahead.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Hershey Remains The Best Value In The Food Processing Space [View article]
    Kolpin,

    I adjusted my DCF to take into account the low end of sales guidance offered. I then flattened growth out for the rest of the decade at 3% the mid point of this years sales hike. I left margins flat over this time frame as well even though HSY has proven to be quiet adept at reducing costs. The model indicates a fair value of $104.48.

    Not sure what the big fuss here is. HSY is getting hit by forex issues similar to other multinationals. The underlying business is strong with sales growth above what I had expected. I am still long here with no intention to reduce the position.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Hershey Remains The Best Value In The Food Processing Space [View article]
    Mike,

    If we see it, the down spike will come before the month is out. You will have second quarter "window dressing" were poor performers such as HSY and ORCL will be jettisoned from various fund portfolios.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating My Fair Value On The Walt Disney Company [View article]
    Mike,

    Your comment neatly encapsulates why I wind up selling certain positions. The reality is you simply can't buy every attractive company. Thanks for reading and adding to the conversation.
    Jun 17, 2015. 08:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating My Fair Value On The Walt Disney Company [View article]
    2Reb,

    And I am there with you, waiting patiently.
    Jun 17, 2015. 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating My Fair Value On The Walt Disney Company [View article]
    Chancer,

    Take a look at a one year chart of DIS. In the early Oct 2014 time frame, the shares sold off along with the market as a whole. My goal is to watch for an attractive entry point as this will allow for outsized gains. The shares have traded in the $105-$111 range for the past couple of months. Lets see how it plays out.

    As for the Lego question, my research doesn't yield any specific comments. The FOX spat over the release of a new Fantastic Four movie this year against DIS wishes is something to watch. Fox owns the movie rights so if we notice, DIS refuses (rightfully so) to promote the popular group. Universal studios owned by CMCSA is another competitive threat that has multiple rides based on Marvel characters. From what I have read CMCSA plans on redoing some. It will be interesting to watch DIS attempt to regain power over the rich IP content that is Marvel. Keep in mind Sony still has the rights for a few more Spider-man movies easily one of Marvel's most popular characters.
    Jun 16, 2015. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Hershey Remains The Best Value In The Food Processing Space [View article]
    ranman,

    You are very welcome.
    Jun 13, 2015. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Breaks Out To New Highs [View article]
    Edi,

    I can't get excited over BAC. Just when you think they have turned a corner, a new surprise emerges. I prefer C, the story is much cleaner and the value is more compelling. Enjoy the gain on your options.
    Jun 13, 2015. 06:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long Kraft As The Heinz Merger Radically Transforms The Company [View article]
    AS,

    The beauty of the deal is not where KRFT is now, it is where it is going. You are stating the shares are overvalued, I am saying they are undervalued. Let's check back in a year and see where the shares stand. I am fairly certain they will be higher than the current quote.

    I don't appreciate the personal attack, if you feel I am way out of line post your own article detailing why you believe it is foolish for 3G to undertake this venture. Keep in mind, we have probably one of the best managerial teams around with a fantastic track record versus an unknown character who hides behind an assumed moniker. Make sure you put your name on, it adds to the conviction.
    Jun 13, 2015. 01:06 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar General Morphs Into The Next Great Dividend Growth Play [View article]
    Eric,

    Thanks for stopping by. The credit profile is adequate and will only come into play when interest rates back up substantially. Until then, having debt on the balance sheet remains prudent. DG is poised to become a DGI dream akin to what TGT did once they began to raise the dividend. I expect double digit hikes for the rest of the decade.
    Jun 12, 2015. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Exiting My Position In General Electric [View article]
    To all,

    i am sorry for the tardy posting. The GE position has been replaced with DG as detailed here. http://seekingalpha.co...

    My favorite pick for 2016 is KRFT as detailed here. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 12, 2015. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expanding Further On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    bob,

    You are very welcome. The shares have too much momentum here, perhaps after the next earnings report maybe an ample time for call writing. Until then enjoy the ride and the soon to be paid out dividend. I am taking the wife out to dinner to celebrate!!! Go GILD!!!
    Jun 11, 2015. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Breaks Out To New Highs [View article]
    getjdb,

    The overall portfolio is described in my newsletter. I offer real time updates on all moves made. YTD the portfolio is up 7.40 versus the S&P at 3.08 and Russel at 5.6, since inception (1/2012) the portfolio is up 16.59 vs S&P at 17.06 and Russell at 16.11. A large part of this years out performance is due to the top ten holdings performing better than the overall market. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Jun 10, 2015. 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Breaks Out To New Highs [View article]
    lajns,

    Thank you, C closed at a 52 week high today. Lets see if it can keep the momentum going.
    Jun 10, 2015. 08:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Breaks Out To New Highs [View article]
    emerald,

    Yes, C has fallen quite hard from the all the bad loans of the later part of the last decade.
    Jun 10, 2015. 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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