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Alexander J. Poulos  

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  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    chasecd,

    Can't argue with the performance post 2008. I am late to the party yet believe above average gains are available if the US economy continues to expand. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Apr 13, 2015. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    User,

    My portfolio has significant overlap with yours as well. I am long, UPS, AAPL, AMGN, GILD, GE, WFC and RE. UNP and UPS are both quite attractive here, an excellent play on the continued strength of the US economy. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Apr 13, 2015. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 401(K) Reconstructed: 2015 Q1 Review [View article]
    To all,

    You are very welcome.
    Apr 12, 2015. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What I Am Looking For From Gilead Sciences' Earnings Release [View article]
    jstratt,

    Very well said, the reasons you so eloquently elaborated on are the reasons why GILD remains a top 5 holding. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Apr 12, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What I Am Looking For From Gilead Sciences' Earnings Release [View article]
    6228371,

    I generally agree unless they can get their hands on a breakthrough treatment in early phase 2 trials from a smaller less well capitalized competitor. Such was the case when they purchased Pharmasset which led to Sovaldi. The management team has proven itself to be quite adept. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Apr 12, 2015. 10:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    cowboy,

    From what I have read, management has not articulated much on the topic. I do not see an expansion of the Panama Canal as an impediment to their moat. The basis for my bullish thesis is the system map for UNP. UNP provides the main rail lines for the top two most populated states in the US a very enviable position. I believe the moat is well defined and defensible. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Apr 12, 2015. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 401(K) Reconstructed: 2015 Q1 Review [View article]
    To all,

    Be careful with BAX, their hemophillia franchise is under attack from other well run competitors namely Biogen and Novo Nordisk. The Biogen product is gaining traction in the market which in my opinion is causing management to become intentionally vague as the future path post spin-off. I would not be surprised if they freeze or lower the dividend which will make the DGI crowd flee. BAX remains a chronic underperformer, until viable new areas sprout from the labs the under performance should continue.
    Apr 12, 2015. 09:29 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    Zok,

    Very well said. UNP is a virtual pure play in the continued growth of the US economy, a bet I would make any day.
    Apr 11, 2015. 08:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    maybenot,

    Yes on everyone except GE. GE is a trade, the management team has a spotty record to say the least. I will have a new GE article up some time this week with an update on my thesis.
    Apr 11, 2015. 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    peace,

    I share your view concerning the PC expansion. I would love to see a higher growth rate, 15% per year compounded is a double after 5 years. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Apr 11, 2015. 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    maybenot,

    Yes, the companies moat and ability to sustain it is how I decide whether an investment is a trade or a buy and hold. UNP moat is enormous and unassailable hence a long term buy.
    Apr 11, 2015. 07:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    Tunama,

    You are very welcome.
    Apr 11, 2015. 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    22023171,

    The key to the UNP story is continued growth in the US economy, a point I touched upon in the article. The west coast port strike lowered overall carloads yet there will be a catch up effect now that the strike has been resolved.

    As for the sensitivity of the model, you are correct it is dependent on the next two years as they are bound to be easier to predict than five years from now. Your growth numbers appear to be a tad low, feel free to review various analyst estimates to get a feel for where they expect revenue to come in at. With large cap well followed companies, revenue numbers tend to be pretty spot on. The margin increased shown above will come as UNP continues to lower their efficiency ratio. Thanks for the thought provoking comment.
    Apr 11, 2015. 07:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    JSG,

    I have paired UNP with UPS, FAST and GE as plays on a rebound in the US economy coming on the heels of a harsh winter. If I am correct, economic activity will pick up Q2-3 ans should begin to reflect in the share price. We shall see if my thesis is validated by the market. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Apr 11, 2015. 07:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Ride The Rails With Union Pacific [View article]
    Ray,

    Thank you for reading. I would appreciate any clarity you can share concerning the fuel surcharge.
    Apr 11, 2015. 07:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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