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Alexander J. Poulos  

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  • Examining My Bullish Thesis On Citigroup In Light On Yesterday's Announcement [View article]
    44,

    Earnings while important are not the key for C here. See the above response to jim for additional details. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Mar 12, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Examining My Bullish Thesis On Citigroup In Light On Yesterday's Announcement [View article]
    jim,

    The story for C here remains how it will wind down Citi Holdings, close the valuation gap between where the share are trading at currently and its TBV, utilization of its DTA's and the disposal of the 11 non essential consumer markets. The shares will continue to move based on divestitures and the wind down of Citi Holdings not so much net earnings. The key for C is to rebalance their holdings to de-emphasize riskier asserts such as subprime lending and focus on what the Fed deems safer assets. There is quite a bit to like here, thanks for reading and commenting.
    Mar 12, 2015. 11:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Examining My Bullish Thesis On Citigroup In Light On Yesterday's Announcement [View article]
    User,

    I purchased C last year in the $46 and $48 range. I purposely shied away from the banks during the crisis as I was unsure how events would transpire. I did purchase WFC at $30 in 2012. As for C currently, I believe it is a tremendous value with the positive CCAR results acting as a catalyst that should power the shares higher. As to when you will be made whole, it would be many years out which is quite difficult to model.
    Mar 12, 2015. 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Examining My Bullish Thesis On Citigroup In Light On Yesterday's Announcement [View article]
    Jason,

    Exactly, hence why C is one of my top 5 holdings. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Mar 12, 2015. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Examining My Bullish Thesis On Citigroup In Light On Yesterday's Announcement [View article]
    IP,

    I completely agree, management has redeemed itself. I use the BV metric as it seems to be the one most envogue with the Street. The fact that C is still trading at less than TBV is an absolute steal. I suspect going forward, we will not be afforded the opportunity to purchase financial institutions at less than TBV.
    Mar 12, 2015. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Philip,

    I tend to address the changes made in the quarterly review I compose. In my opinion, the big news here is my decision to part with XOM, I have held it for quite a while. The BPT sale is my firm entrance into the camp that we have yet to see the bottom in the price of crude. The catalyst is the XOM presentation, lets face it they have access to far better info than we the lay investor can ever dream off.
    Mar 11, 2015. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Phillip,

    Excellent questions, let me elaborate on how I have managed my position. As we are all well aware, the key to BPT is the future price of oil. There is a great debate raging as to where crude will end 2015 at. I prefer to evaluate various management investor day presentations to gleam where the trend is going. The commentary from XOM, was particularly sobering. The expect prices to remain subdued for a long period of time. By subdued they were referring to the $50 per barrel range.

    My takeaway is two fold. The first is the lower price of energy is a net positive for the American consumer it will greatly aid my thesis on AMC http://seekingalpha.co... one of my top picks for 2015 and HTZ http://seekingalpha.co...

    The second takeaway is the need to re evaluate my thesis concerning my energy holdings. The thesis behind owning XOM is the combination of share repurchases and a rising dividend would provide a very acceptable gain going forward. Well, XOM has lowered the share repurchase to $1 billion from $4 billion per quarter. Normally, I would be inclined to sell and move on, yet I decided to wait and see if the price of crude would rebound and repurchases would be quickly restored. In light of the presentation, there will not be a rapid turnaround. I have decided to sell XOM and BPT.

    For XOM the total return 5.35% over a 23 month holding period and BPT gain was 4.3%. As for risk management, both holdings comprised less than 7% of overall portfolio size. Taking small positions is critical for proper risk management. The future price of any equity is undetermined and unforeseen events can sour even the most well thought out thesis. The key is to limit loss and redeploy assets when the investment thesis has been invalidated.

    The proceeds have been redeployed into Re and BAC. Both should perform quite well especially if interest rates rise.
    Mar 11, 2015. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precision Castparts Is A Great Long-Term Investment [View article]
    Ajay,

    A very well written article. I was fortunate to get in during the recent earnings related decline down to $200 per share. I suspect the shares will double in five years as well, the backlogs at Boeing and Airbus are quite robust.
    Mar 6, 2015. 08:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Fred,

    My numbers were taken direct,y from the companies 10-K, they are not an estimate.
    Mar 6, 2015. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Bullish Thesis On AMC Entertainment [View article]
    aveguy,

    You are very welcome, I suspect the run is not over yet.
    Mar 6, 2015. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating My Decision To Invest In UPS [View article]
    Happy,

    The lower price of oil is indeed a positive. Management has yet to quantify the benefit expected, so I purposely decided to exclude it. Any comment would be a guess on my part. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Mar 6, 2015. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating My Decision To Invest In UPS [View article]
    ted,

    UPS is well entrenched, I find it difficult to envision a scenario where a competitor emerges to knock them off their perch. That being said, the simple strategy of buying, holding and reinvesting the dividend should provide satisfactory gains going forward. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Mar 5, 2015. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating My Decision To Invest In UPS [View article]
    maybenot,

    You are very welcome, thanks for reading and commenting.
    Mar 5, 2015. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating My Decision To Invest In UPS [View article]
    wdchil,

    I agree the market is a bit high now. UPS offers an attractive value here in a market where value is harder to locate. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Mar 5, 2015. 08:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating My Decision To Invest In UPS [View article]
    Paul,

    The source of my trailing 10 year multiple is Value Line. They posted the following average multiple and relative p/e to the market. You are correct 10 years is statistically significant hence the use in the article.

    2005 21.1 relative 1.12
    2006 19.8 relative 1.07
    2007 17.8 relative .94
    2008 18.4 relative 1.11
    2009 22.6 relative 1.51
    2010 18.1 relative 1.15
    2011 16.7 relative 1.05
    2012 16.7 relative 1.06
    2013 19.3 relative 1.08
    2014 21.2 relative 1.11

    When conducting my research, I find it very useful to consult various trusted sources of which VL is one of the finest. Feel free to check my numbers, you will find they are grounded in fact. Feel free to disagree with me, however your comment my projections are well founded and in no way off base.

    I decided to use the relative multiple indicator to get a gauge for the premium the market assigns the shares. There is a real possibility the market multiple maybe lower five years from now hence the inclusion in the article.
    Mar 5, 2015. 08:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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