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Alexander J. Poulos

 
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  • Portfolio Changes For The Third Quarter 2014 [View article]
    jlotz1017,

    You very nicely sum up why I continue to write for SA. It is my live trading journal. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Oct 9 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Exxon Mobil Offers An Outstanding Value In Today's Market [View article]
    Prezzo,

    Thanks for the high praise and taking the time to read and comment.
    Oct 9 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Exercise In Valuation: Oracle [View article]
    To the Valuentum Team,

    Well done, I couldn't agree more. Long ORCL. Your ERP and risk free rate are on the conservative side giving your numbers a conservative basis. Well Done.
    Oct 8 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Ensco PLC's Fair Value [View article]
    ClubFord,

    Wow, if you follow my work I point out when I have made an error in judgement. If you followed the link to the previous article on ESV you will notice my public proclamation that I erred in judgement when I originally invested in this company.

    In the comment thread above, the response to JeffreyW I again point out my error in investing in ESV. A human is bound to err even the greatest living investor WB has made his fair share. The key is to learn from the error and move on. May I suggest if Pedro and yourself disagree with my thesis then simply compose a rebuttal piece. A recent example was the piece written by ColorodoWealthManagement concerning MCD. He contacted me in advance an an excellent discussion broke out. His piece can be seen here http://seekingalpha.co...
    My piece can be seen here. http://seekingalpha.co...

    The exchange with the audience is the true power of SA. Often times the audience may offer particular insight into an industry that you as a retail investor may not have. This insight is particularly valuable. Some examples on DE as two midwest farmers opined to stay away from the shares a year ago http://seekingalpha.co...
    and the commentator tc2014 in this article. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 8 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Ensco PLC's Fair Value [View article]
    Chuck,

    Thank you for eloquently expanding on this point.
    Oct 8 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Ensco PLC's Fair Value [View article]
    arthur,

    If they ever announce a dividend hike, look out below. I doubt this will happen though. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Oct 8 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Exxon Mobil Offers An Outstanding Value In Today's Market [View article]
    dostoevsky,

    I highly suspect barring another bone headed move (impossible to predict), that XOM will outperform. The simple combination of constant share repurchase combined with an every rising dividend makes it an easy prediction. Buffet sees the same thing here as he saw in IBM. I expect a rather uneventful double digit overall return over the course of the next ten years.
    Oct 8 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Exxon Mobil Offers An Outstanding Value In Today's Market [View article]
    Craven,

    I thank you for the praise.
    Oct 8 12:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Ensco PLC's Fair Value [View article]
    Artful,

    You overestimate the impact of CVS and underestimate WAG staying power. Both are the 800 pound gorillas in the industry, the difference being WAG concentrates its resources in the higher margin retail drug trade. CVS is primarily a PBM with a drug store as a side business. Take a good look at CVS metrics post merger. They are horrendous, especially net margin. This is a direct reflection of the low profit business that the PBM's engage in. WAG developed their own PBM from scratch and built it into the fifth largest before deciding to exit the business. They correctly view the PBM business and low margin and instead focused on their retail footprint.

    The sell-off in August allowed me to re-enter into WAG at a very opportune time. The company is transforming its business with the Allied Boots acquisition along with the distribution deal with ABC. The business is high predictive, recession proof which allows for very accurate projections. I stand by the projection made "Using the lower end of the range as a guide, what would an investor reasonably pay for a company with projected earnings of at least $4.25 per share. WAG historically trades at a 10 year P/E average of 19.7, however over the past couple of years as growth has slowed the multiple has compressed. For my projections, I will use an 18 multiple which in my estimation is fair. Applying an 18 multiple to the low end of management's guidance puts a projected share price of $76.5. An investor will also receive an additional $3.375 in dividends which further adds to the appeal of the investment. The total return over the 10 quarter holding period nets out to a 33% return which is quite satisfactory." which can be seen http://seekingalpha.co...

    Thank you again for your insightful comments and for taking the time to read and comment.
    Oct 7 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Exxon Mobil Offers An Outstanding Value In Today's Market [View article]
    djsulli,

    You are very welcome.
    Oct 7 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Ensco PLC's Fair Value [View article]
    Profit,

    See the updated link to account for the debt issue. It lowers the fair value quite a bit more. I would like to be proven wrong here.

    http://bit.ly/1nbVdtY
    Oct 7 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Exxon Mobil Offers An Outstanding Value In Today's Market [View article]
    To audience,

    The charts from Levered Returns have dropped off the article. For those interested click here.


    http://bit.ly/1qb6Cp1


    http://bit.ly/1qb6EwV
    Oct 7 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Exxon Mobil Offers An Outstanding Value In Today's Market [View article]
    Dostoevsky,

    We anxiously await for your bearish piece on XOM. You seem to make it a habit of denigrating the company at every opportunity. To answer some of your concerns.

    Again, the XTO purchase was a mistake which mitigated some of the buybacks used. If you look back at the share count, XOM paid for some of the acquisition with shares. It took them roughly 2 years to repurchase the shares mitigating some of the impact of the share repurchase plan. As you have astutely pointed out, the shares have underperformed over the last ten years because of it. The question going forward is what is next.

    Very simply, absent another bone headed move which can't be predicted in advance the combination of a roughly 3% with an aggressive share buyback plan will OUTPERFORM OVER THE LONG RUN.

    As for production increases they will come as larger scale projects continue top come online. All of the oil majors are having production increases which will be mitigated over time. Patience is the key here. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Oct 7 12:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Exxon Mobil Offers An Outstanding Value In Today's Market [View article]
    phenom1,

    The end of sanctions will certainly boost XOM prospects. The natural end to this stalemate will come when the economic pain of lower oil prices forces Russia to play nice with the Ukraine. Putin will look for some graceful exit here, I suspect sometime in the spring. He will declare victory and move on. Its not in anyone's interest for the sanctions to continue. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Oct 7 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Exxon Mobil Offers An Outstanding Value In Today's Market [View article]
    Buy,

    I agree the price is certainly attractive here. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Oct 7 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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