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Alexander J. Poulos

 
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  • Gilead Sciences' Recent Trading Pattern Is Much To Do About Nothing [View article]
    CSYJ,

    I will review the info and get back to you after the weekend.
    Jan 16, 2015. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' Recent Trading Pattern Is Much To Do About Nothing [View article]
    Dothemath,

    I agree there will be continued rationing with the sickest being treated first. List price of medications should be viewed as a "starting" point of negotiations with payers. As your numbers indicate, the final price tens to differ quite a bit from list in a similar fashion as other legend meds do. Script count is key as it will offer weekly clues as to GILD quarterly revenue. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Jan 16, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' Recent Trading Pattern Is Much To Do About Nothing [View article]
    To all,

    If anyone has a link indicating weekly HCV sales please post for the audience. Thank you.
    Jan 16, 2015. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' Recent Trading Pattern Is Much To Do About Nothing [View article]
    franklinford,

    Well said, I couldn't agree more. As long as GILD product remains the best in class in HIV and HCV they will continue to generate the lion share of the revenue in these distinct disease classes. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Jan 16, 2015. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' Recent Trading Pattern Is Much To Do About Nothing [View article]
    Menicholas,

    Thank you for the kind words. I decided to type this article in response to the irrational trading in the shares of GILD over the past six weeks. The doom and gloom is simply not born out in the facts. As long as we have a level playing field, GILD HCV franchise will garner the lion share of HCV spending this year. Based on the initial VP script count, the analyst comments of them garnering 15% market share seems a bit optimistic. Watch the IMS data for clues as to how the landscape is playing out.
    Jan 16, 2015. 08:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' Recent Trading Pattern Is Much To Do About Nothing [View article]
    Menicholas,

    With the market selling off here all week, anything is indeed possible. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Jan 16, 2015. 08:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' Recent Trading Pattern Is Much To Do About Nothing [View article]
    622,

    Easier said then done. State budgets are stretched as is, I can't foresee a situation where GILD is effectively compel them to treat earlier. The only way would be if they had clinical data showing a discernible data proving earlier treatment is far more cost effective. Currently the data is not available, hence the situation we have before us. Watch GILD revenue and earnings will grow quite nicely from here, lets see what treasures the clinical pipeline holds. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Jan 16, 2015. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' Recent Trading Pattern Is Much To Do About Nothing [View article]
    Thomas,

    An attempt by the Indian patent office to circumvent GILD valid worldwide patent for the benefit of their homegrown generic companies. I would term this as "rent" seeking behavior that will be litigated further. Sales from India and the third world were never factored into GILD rev growth as these countries simply could not afford to pay list price for the treatment. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Jan 16, 2015. 08:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Expectations For Citigroup In 2015 [View article]
    Ameno,

    A share repurchase would be optimal yet unpopular. Management needs to restore the traditional income component so expect to see some of the excess capital earmarked towards a dividend. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Jan 15, 2015. 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Expectations For Citigroup In 2015 [View article]
    maybe,

    C is all about patience. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Jan 15, 2015. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Expectations For Citigroup In 2015 [View article]
    Jeff,

    The worse case scenario here is the shares continue to languish. I realize the collapse in oil is putting severe pressure on rates yet it is simply unsustainable. I suspect you will see oil bottom out and reverse higher which will allow rates to gently rise. At some point the Fed has indicated it will raise short term rates which will be helpful. C is a game of patience, the gain is there for the taking for those willing to wait it out. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Jan 15, 2015. 06:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Too Cheap To Pass Up [View article]
    Tim,

    I couldn't agree more, the CCAR announcement in March will be pivotal.
    Jan 15, 2015. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Expectations For Citigroup In 2015 [View article]
    jim,

    My original entry is $46 with an average price of $48.5. C generated a ton of excess capital that will be returned to share holders at some point (March). By buying below BV and holding a patient long term shareholder should do quite well. Incidentally, the BV is the metric I use to invest in all financial companies (banks, insurance). The metric has served me well with very successful entries into WFC, ALL, TMK, the only one I am waiting for is C. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Jan 15, 2015. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Expectations For Citigroup In 2015 [View article]
    Star,

    Check back in March to indeed determine if the company is brain dead. I suspect the patient will be pronounced viable and is on the road towards a full recovery. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Jan 15, 2015. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Expectations For Citigroup In 2015 [View article]
    dieuwer,

    Actually the market thinks status quo will prevail which is worse than bankruptcy. In this scenario, the bank will continue to accrue excess capital that is trapped on its balance sheet. The bank due to a "denominator" problem is precluded from generating a meaningful return on equity. At that point C becomes a value trap. I suspect the Fed will allow them to reduce the excess capital trapped on their books in March however there are no guarantees.
    Jan 15, 2015. 02:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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