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Alexander J. Poulos

 
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  • Sanofi: Recent Plunge Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Nicholas,

    A very well done article. On the REGN issue, I am surprised you didn't mention Alirocumab, the PCK9 cholesterol remedy from REGN that will be promoted by SNY. The have filed a NDA with accelerated review by the FDA. I suspect the sales of this new compound will aid in the earnings shortfall from its diabetes franchise.
    Nov 18, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dispelling Some Of The Myths Surrounding Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Mineman,

    My take is not at the present time. that being said, if the treatment shows promise, I wouldn't be surprised if GILD acquired them to keep their HIV franchise intact. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Nov 18, 2014. 10:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dispelling Some Of The Myths Surrounding Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Kozhany,

    GILD has a far better balance sheet than ABBV which gives them greater flexibility to grow their business. People fear the HCV market is a zero sum game instead of seeing it for what it is, a large vibrant market. GILD will command the lion share thus ensuring it of billions for years to come. ABBV will carve itself out a portion as well similar to what JNJ had with its treatment. Until a far better treatment comes forth, GILD is in the cat bird seat. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Nov 18, 2014. 10:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hertz Offers Tremendous Upside As A Turnaround Commences [View article]
    vitor,

    Excellent points, let me elaborate on my thinking further. Using the cost of vehicles and resell value each car is costing HTZ approximately $1.3k to own excluding maintenance. They decide to depreciate the asset at a rate of $300 per month, they would need to earn at least double this figure to run a profitable company. I don't view this as a steep hurdle. With the hedgies involved they will push for steep cost controls which will greatly aid in overall profitability.

    As for the interest rate concern, you raise a very fair and valid point. I don't take it as fait accompli that interest rates will rise as dramatically as you have predicted. With the price of oil as low as it is, we have more of a deflationary tone than inflationary. I expect rates to stay extremely accommodative for quite a while, allowing HTZ the cover to turn itself around. Keep in mind, I did dub this as a speculation yet in my view a worthwhile one. Thank you very much for taking the time to read and comment. Your comment has greatly added to the conversation and you get author's pick.
    Nov 18, 2014. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dispelling Some Of The Myths Surrounding Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Diesel,

    Your concerns are valid. I am comforted by the fact that GILD has the best management team in the business which will have a windfall of cash on the books to do exactly what you proclaim, go into chronic disease states. Don't be surprised in the near future, GILD begins to acquire some companies with the HCV franchise windfall to fill out their product line. Thanks for reading and commenting
    Nov 18, 2014. 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dispelling Some Of The Myths Surrounding Gilead Sciences [View article]
    oscar,

    Thank you, i appreciate it.
    Nov 18, 2014. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dispelling Some Of The Myths Surrounding Gilead Sciences [View article]
    DoctoRx,

    Thank you, I appreciate it.
    Nov 18, 2014. 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dispelling Some Of The Myths Surrounding Gilead Sciences [View article]
    rogro77,

    Since you believe I am a "pumper" give the audience the courtesy of dispelling my thesis above. Use facts to prove your case, the floor is now yours.
    Nov 18, 2014. 09:14 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hertz Offers Tremendous Upside As A Turnaround Commences [View article]
    vitor,

    Using past history as a guide, HTZ has always spent less than $2 billion in capex. I suspect this figure will be closer to the reality going forward. A lower capex, better depreciation value (less chance of a future accounting scandal) favorable interest rate climate. combined with the ability to hand down price hikes will have a very positive impact on free cash and hence the share price. Let's see how the story plays out. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Nov 18, 2014. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hertz Offers Tremendous Upside As A Turnaround Commences [View article]
    lori,

    Welcome aboard.
    Nov 18, 2014. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hertz Offers Tremendous Upside As A Turnaround Commences [View article]
    TO,

    I figure it will take a 12-24 months for the story to fully play out. This time frame allows for adequate time for the accounting review to be finalized along with the rental equipment business to be spun-off. The gains will be there, patience is needed. Thanks for reading and commenting
    Nov 18, 2014. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Winters Ravages Coca-Cola's Board Once Again, Stating The Dividend Is At Risk [View article]
    fesspark,

    You are very welcome.
    Nov 17, 2014. 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola Enterprises Offers Value But Has Low Earnings Growth [View article]
    CYR,

    CCE is one of the largest bottlers of KO products which allows this company to piggyback of the KO brand name. CCE is far better run than KO, yet it is relatively unknown. That is perfectly fine by me, as I have made quite a bit of money in the name with the initial purchase at 34.5 and exit at 45.82. I needed the funds to purchase AMGN and vowed to repurchase when funds became available again. Got very lucky and re entered near the exact bottom at 40.12 cents per share.

    I remain very bullish as the company continues to richly reward shareholders via higher dividends and share repurchases. Dan Loeb recently disclosed his fund has increased its position in the shares, a positive sign. Look at the name and study it closely, there is plenty to like there.
    Nov 17, 2014. 08:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Great Were The Results Of Viacom? [View article]
    Ari,

    You have raised some excellent points. The difference between VIAB and IBM is two fold. The first is VIAB has an outstanding CEO at the helm. Strong experienced leadership is priceless. The second positive is the slate of new content they will unleash in 2015, from its movie slate to the host of new cartoons for children. VIAB will ride the coattails of the content boom for years to come here. During the lean times, the company sopped up a ton of shares which is simply outstanding.

    VIAB cost of capital is the interest rate paid 4.6%- its tax rate 0.33. This quick calculation gives a glimpse of VIAB after tax cost of capital which is 3.08% which is hardly constraining. The WACC of VIAB is 7.6% which means they need to earn over 7.6% on capital to justify their purchases. VIAB ROIC is 15.5% which is certainly acceptable. Watch Dauman continue to drive cost and increase margins while retiring shares outstaning.

    VIAB is one of 3 losing positions this year (AMIGY,LVS) being the other two. I expect all three to sharply rebound next year. The market has spoken here and my buy in price was simply too high. The difference I have as a long term investor is patience, I can continue to reinvest the dividend while awaiting for the market to reprice the shares higher. Thanks for the thought provoking article, I enjoyed it.
    Nov 17, 2014. 05:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills Has Become Interesting Again [View article]
    Ari,

    Thank you, I appreciate your kind words.
    Nov 17, 2014. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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