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Alexander J. Poulos  

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  • How I'm Playing The Collapse In The Price Of Oil [View article]
    Ari,

    Sanity and along with it equilibrium will once again return to the commodity markets. Once you get a pick up in worldwide economic activity, quite a bit of this excess supply will disappear. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 9, 2014. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I'm Playing The Collapse In The Price Of Oil [View article]
    maybenot,

    I firmly agree an opportunity will present itself. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 9, 2014. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I'm Playing The Collapse In The Price Of Oil [View article]
    Skip,

    Thanks for reading and sharing your thoughts.
    Dec 9, 2014. 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How I'm Playing The Collapse In The Price Of Oil [View article]
    2Reb,

    I can certainly agree with that. Thanks for reading and taking the time to add to the conversation.
    Dec 8, 2014. 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Carnage In The Oil Patch Will Negatively Impact Railroads [View article]
    Jim,

    The numbers used were derived from value line a source i have found to be quite reputable over the years. CP has handsomely benefited from the surge in oil via rails. If this growth slows down, (a certainty if the price of oil remains depressed over the next six months) it will CP there earnings growth. I was keying off the 2015 estimates which I suspect will be proven to be optimistic. That being said, the company seams to be moving in the right direction and is aggressively reducing costs which is a sign of good management. Thank you for reading and adding to the conversation.
    Dec 8, 2014. 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I'm Playing The Collapse In The Price Of Oil [View article]
    Musings,

    I would be happy to. Thanks for reading and sharing.
    Dec 8, 2014. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills Has Become Interesting Again [View article]
    To all,

    An interesting tidbit on the pick up in option trading on GIS.

    Next on the list is General Mills Inc. (GS +0.02 to $53.14) where total options volume is currently 7,368 vs. average daily volume of only 866. The bulk of this volume is coming from the December 20th 52.50 put where volume is 6,511 vs. open interest of only 1,285. Since volume is above open interest we know that this represents opening activity but it’s difficult to say whether it represents bearish positioning or protection. GIS is scheduled to report earnings on December 17th so this activity captures the impact of this event.
    Dec 8, 2014. 07:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Carnage In The Oil Patch Will Negatively Impact Railroads [View article]
    Timmies,

    I have been patiently following the rails for 3 years now waiting for an opportune time to enter into them . I almost purchased UNP this summer, instead the funds went into HSY which has done well. It looks like my patience maybe rewarded next year, I am leaning more towards CNI as I am impressed by their operating efficiency. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 8, 2014. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Carnage In The Oil Patch Will Negatively Impact Railroads [View article]
    relo,

    You are correct, I didn't elaborate further on this point. I suspect we may get a bargain in the rails at some point next year as the pain from lower oil spreads to the rails as well. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 8, 2014. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I'm Playing The Collapse In The Price Of Oil [View article]
    2Reb,

    Please elaborate on my use of out date data to in this article. I have used historic figures to gauge the potential impact on earnings of the integrated oil majors. Notice, I purposely shied away from offering earnings projections from next year as you are indeed correct, the numbers are out dated. The "investor" in my understands there will be plenty of pain showing up in earnings releases over the next couple of quarters. At some point, a bargains will be had, I am hoping that I am able to capitalize on them when they do appear. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 8, 2014. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I'm Playing The Collapse In The Price Of Oil [View article]
    For an additional play in the fall in the price of crude oil see my latest article detailing the railroad companies. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 8, 2014. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PepsiCo: Model Reveals Outsized Returns Are Here To Stay [View article]
    Musings,

    Thanks for the timely article. PEP is one of those boring stable stocks that continues to perform.
    Dec 8, 2014. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From A Rebound In Oil Prices [View article]
    Ari,

    Thank you for the interesting article. I suspect the carnage in the energy sector will continue well into next year. A bit of patience here will be well rewarded yet oil hasn't bottomed yet. I suspect we will begin to get M&A activity which will signal the bottom. Until then patience is required.
    Dec 8, 2014. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I'm Playing The Collapse In The Price Of Oil [View article]
    M&A likely will become a bigger theme in the energy exploration and production sector in 2015, and Exxon Mobil (XOM -2%) is among companies rumored to be headed for a deal.
    XOM is said to be interested in BG Group (OTCPK:BRGXF, OTCQX:BRGYY); with XOM's long-term growth plans in Russia at risk in today’s environment, the company could use some new, exciting opportunities, and BG’s Brazilian assets or an E&P company’s U.S. shale prospects would fit the bill, WSJ's Liam Denning says.
    XOM may be spooked by its 2010 deal for XTO Energy, which helped cut its annual return on capital employed to 18% last year from 34% in 2008; BG's return on capital last year was ~10%.
    With XTO’s legacy still apparent, Denning says XOM needs a clear bargain price to sell a strategic deal to investors but the dismal outlook for oil prices could make it easier to do as next year unfolds.
    Dec 8, 2014. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I'm Playing The Collapse In The Price Of Oil [View article]
    DE,

    I am sticking with the majors here as the integrated model will help them weather the storm her much better than those leveraged to the price of crude. Keep in mind those that have refineries will benefit by the lower price of crude thus offsetting some the decline. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 8, 2014. 03:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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