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Alexander J. Poulos  

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  • Warren Buffett Increases His Stake In Deere, Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    hugh01,

    Well said, may I add one observation. Many companies issue a share repurchase plan only to repurchase shares lost via option grants. The great ones consistently reduce the outstanding float. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 19, 2015. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fastenal: A Wide-Moat High-Growth Play With A Dividend Approaching 3% [View article]
    Daniel,

    Thank you for the well thought out comment. Your commentary concerning the difference between the companies performance and its share performance is valid over a short period of time. Over the long run, the business consistent ability to generate sales and profit will ultimately determine the path of the share price. In the case of FAST, it is my steadfast belief the market "knew" the company would grow and "rewarded" it with a premium multiple. You are correct the multiple has contracted and the five year performance has been underwhelming to say the least.

    Where our opinions differ is over the course of the companies future share price. I firmly believe the market will "reward" the companies outstanding continued performance similar to what was outlined in the thesis above. Thanks again for reading and commenting.
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fastenal: A Wide-Moat High-Growth Play With A Dividend Approaching 3% [View article]
    user,

    I would be happy to write such an article if the audience will confirm their interest. If interested leave a comment.
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:08 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fastenal: A Wide-Moat High-Growth Play With A Dividend Approaching 3% [View article]
    kj,

    GWW is a very well company in its own right. GWW tends to be a bit acquisitive, whereas FAST strictly relies on organic growth. The strength of FAST balance sheet coupled with impressive organic growth where the deciding factors. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fastenal: A Wide-Moat High-Growth Play With A Dividend Approaching 3% [View article]
    swimmerben,

    I am sorry for the unambiguous comments in the text. Please see the comment made to shourey, for further elaboration. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fastenal: A Wide-Moat High-Growth Play With A Dividend Approaching 3% [View article]
    shourey,

    An excellent question. The reason behind the underperformance is in my view multiple deflation. The greatest danger in investing in high growth companies is the dreaded moment where the market becomes "unimpressed" and deflates the multiple. Earnings went from 90 cents in 2010 to 1.67 at year end 2014 for CAGR of 13.14% yet the shares went sideways at best. In my view, as long as the company continues to grow at a mid teens clip the shares will appreciate further. The shares will easily double over the next ten years at minimum, it very well may accomplish the feat in less than five years assuming we don not enter into a recession. Great company, lets see if the market will validate my thesis. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Increases His Stake In Deere, Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    convoluted and slam stocks,

    Excellent points, thanks for reading and sharing.
    Feb 19, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Increases His Stake In Deere, Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    Daniel,

    Feel free to elaborate on your comment, it is not clear who it is in reference to.
    Feb 19, 2015. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fastenal: A Wide-Moat High-Growth Play With A Dividend Approaching 3% [View article]
    To all,

    For those who are having trouble with the LR model, click the following link.
    http://bit.ly/1E70SHR
    Feb 18, 2015. 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fastenal: A Wide-Moat High-Growth Play With A Dividend Approaching 3% [View article]
    Aritz,

    I am looking for a double in ten years time. Let me elaborate a bit more on my thought process. I expect earnings to grow at a 15% clip over the next five years while the multiple remains similar to its current level. With dividends compounded I should see a double on the original amount invested. Great company, thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 18, 2015. 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Increases His Stake In Deere, Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    aaron,

    I suspect you will be proven correct. Your in the field comments dovetails nicely with what management is saying. That being said, I suspect we will see a gradual pick up in 2016. I am hoping the shares meander here which will allow the company to purchase a larger amount of shares then they would otherwise. Thanks for reading and providing excellent info.
    Feb 18, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Increases His Stake In Deere, Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    roger,

    Thanks for reading and providing the interesting info.
    Feb 18, 2015. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Increases His Stake In Deere, Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    Investor,

    Blue Pac partners has published quite a bit research on the subject. While they are quite thorough in their evaluation, I am more inclined to buy here than to sell. I view DE as well run, I doubt anyone will argue this fact. My thesis remains the $6 billion share repurchase authorization should allow for the company to repurchase 15% of their share count. Over time, the consistent decrease in float coupled with annual dividend hikes that I will allow to compound should pave the way for at minimum 10% annualized growth. Thanks for reading and providing an alternative viewpoint.
    Feb 18, 2015. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Increases His Stake In Deere, Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    drcm4t,

    Your figures dovetail nicely with my thinking. We may get a spike upward if there is inclement weather during the time frame as well. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 18, 2015. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Increases His Stake In Deere, Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    Doc,

    Your commentary of the "B" team purchasing DE is more than likely correct. I have no issue with the company, I am invested and believe they are very well run with a wide moat. My concern is over the sudden flip flopping of the position. BRK.B sold out of DE in the third quarter only to turn around and repurchase in the fourth quarter. The holding company has ample cash, I am surprised to see the sudden change in tactics. It will be interesting to see which manager is the genesis behind the choice. As always thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 18, 2015. 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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