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Alexander J. Poulos  

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  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    F Accountant and Fair value,

    The answer is we have seen a panic in the shares of BPT which historically has lead to nice short term gains. The oil plays are all expensive here. Take a look at the chart, you have major panic selling here, I wouldn't at all be surprised if we see the selling reverse in short order. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 26, 2015. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    n,

    The shares are deeply oversold, RSI hit 30 today. Take a look at a one year chart you will see the shares sold off quite heavy right at the end of the year yet the volume was roughly 745k with and RSI of 20. Today we got double the volume yet traded comfortably above the lows in December. I believe today's sell-off was a major overreaction that the market will correct in a few days. Why not profit from the panic selling?
    Feb 26, 2015. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Seatle,

    The shares hit $69 intra day and I was dancing. Sorry for the delay, I nearly fell out of my chair this morning when I saw what was happening with BPT. I am looking for the equity to trade back in the 70's in very short order. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 26, 2015. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    chinaren,

    “Royalty Production” for each day in a calendar quarter is 16.4246% of the first 90,000 barrels of the actual average daily net production of oil and condensate for the quarter from the proved reserves allocated to the Trust. During periods when BP Alaska’s average daily net production from those reserves exceeds 90,000 barrels, the principal factors affecting the Trust’s revenues and distributions to Unit holders are changes in WTI Prices, scheduled annual increases in Chargeable Costs, changes in the Consumer Price Index and changes in Production Taxes.

    A couple of examples, June 104 WTI average price $103 chargeable costs 16.90 cost adjustment 1.832 adjustment 30.96, taxes of 19.28 per barrel leaving a profit of 52.83 per barrel with a production level of 82.3.

    Lets compare it with Jan 2013 WTI of 88.15, chargeable cost 16.70 cost adjustment 1.773 netting a 29.60 total adjustment, taxes 21.37 leaving a profit of 37.18 with production of 92.6 million barrels.

    Notice even though the net production costs went up roughly $1 per barrel, the drop in the tax rate offset the loss.

    Going forward, unless the price of WTI meaningfully rebounds above $50 distributions will be miniscule at best. Again the key is the price of oil, if it begins to head north the trust is quite profitable. Lets see what happens. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 26, 2015. 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Anuj,

    What makes BPT so difficult to model is the production levels of the trust and the price of WTI oil. The use of 2009 distributions was intentional as it was the low point of the recent energy cycle. Many worried the taxes imposed by Alaska would eat into revenue yet as we recently witnessed the tax rate became more favorable to spur additional exploration. In my view, as long as production levels remain above 90k the current issues namely the low WTI prices will work themselves out over the course of the year and the security will readjust upwards. As much as I agreed with your thesis to short when you posted it, the trust price is now appealing. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 26, 2015. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    peter,

    Thanks, lets see if the trust recovers over the next few trading days.
    Feb 26, 2015. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did McDonald's Rally Yesterday? [View article]
    Aaron,

    If I may add to your selling point, the bulk of investors long term gains comes from buying what I would term "special" companies and simply holding and reinvesting the dividend. Special companies is defined as a company with a dominant position in an industry that makes it virtually impossible to displace. MCD is a great example of what I would term a special company. As Buyandhold2012 will attest to, the long term performance especially with dividends reinvesting is nothing short of spectacular. Watch, new CEO comes new momentum a streamlined menu and increased service times which should lead to better operating results.
    Feb 26, 2015. 02:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did McDonald's Rally Yesterday? [View article]
    peapaw,

    That would me I, check my archive. I turned bullish on MCD since July. A bit of patience is all that is needed as events are starting to turn MCD's way. If it takes out it;s old high, expect a quick sprint to $115 my published target price. The restaurant industry has lost of momentum behind it, the odds are good we will see $115.
    Feb 26, 2015. 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did McDonald's Rally Yesterday? [View article]
    Ari,

    Excellent observations. MCD is the dominate player in the restaurant space, no other entity is even close. The company has been mismanaged by Mr. Thompson a move the board has corrected. I modeling just how MCD was in August, http://seekingalpha.co... stating "The final question becomes what sort of discount we should apply to the model's projections. I will use a 20% discount, which will net out a fair value of roughly $113 per share which I will use for my target price by the conclusion of 2015. At its current rate of $94.45 per share, a current investor in MCD can reasonably expect a total return of $18.55 per share in capital gains, along with an additional $3.43 worth of dividends. The total overall gain I am targeting is 23.27%, which is highly satisfactory for such a low-risk play as MCD. I would like to mention the valuation model uses a stagnant share count in figuring its model price, which will be proven to be on the conservative side."

    I sauspect the shares are beginning there ascent towards my price target. Once the new CEO takes over, we will get a renewed sense of excitement similar to what is seen in TGT. Once the shares break $104 its off to the races.

    The market will periodically mark down a superior company as they fret over short term events. For the conservative, long term investor these "tantrums" provide an excellent opportunity to enter into one of these companies at a stellar price. Once in you can simply sit back, set the dividend to reinvest and enjoy the wonders of compounding. Welcome aboard Ari, and thanks again for the article.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:37 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    jstratt,

    I suggest you re-read the article. The lowering of revenue targets was based on guidance issued by MANAGEMENT not an analyst. When constructing my LR model, I focus on managements expectations as I view them as the most reliable source. I purposely decided to take the low end of guidance to temper some of the pro-GILD bias that seems to proliferate the site. It is hazardous to ones wealth to become head over heels for any security. Using the conservative case, GILD is undervalued by 10% a fair amount.

    Now, the real money will be made based on new remedies from GILD lab. The expected revenue generated from the HCV franchise is baked in, we need a new advance to see the shares approach $150 or even $200. Absent a big hit in NASH, it won't happen. As always, I appreciate your comments.
    Feb 25, 2015. 05:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    catbird,

    Very well stated, thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 25, 2015. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Alessandro,

    The other way to look at it is you are managing your position. In my particular case, GILD continues to perform for me even though the shares really haven't gone anywhere for the past six months. Thanks for reading and commenting
    Feb 25, 2015. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    dothemath,

    I agree with your assessment. The market values the HCV franchise as a declined asset. The equities next move will be dictated by data from their labs. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 25, 2015. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Keith,

    I am a practicing pharmacist with 20 years overall experience in the health care field. I am intimately familiar with quite a few of the participants in the field. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 25, 2015. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capturing The Growth Of The Diabetic Epidemic Via Shares Of Novo Nordisk [View article]
    florida,

    I entered in here as described above, the market is quite strong here. In my view if the shares ell off I plan on adding to the position. Best of luck and thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 25, 2015. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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