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Alexander J. Poulos

 
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  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    stockdunn,

    Thanks for sharing a great story. Your story should illustrate for all that HCV is not a disease necessarily brought on by "less than outstanding behavior". As for GILD< the company is far from a one trick pony and has morphed into one of the best research companies on the planet. When the market gives you an opportunity to purchase shares in a dominant company one should take advantage of it. I recently purchased additional shares of GOOGL at $500 as is sold off heavily and hit a new 52 week low. The shares are now changing hands at $530, the company hasn't changed one bit it was perceived to be worth $30 less last week than this week. I suspect we will get a quick rebound in the shares of GILD. Thanks for reading and sharing.
    Dec 22, 2014. 06:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    Fear,

    I suspect the selling here is more than overdone. I suspect those who were iffy have sold and moved on. i doubt there is additional shares that will aggressively enter the market place and expect a relatively quick return to $100 before earnings. Depending on how earnings are received we could get new highs. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 22, 2014. 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    Doc,

    I felt the need to rapidly address today's events as it reeks of capitulation. Notice how the rest of biotech sold off aggressively as well today in sympathy with GILD. I suspect ABBV decisions to aggressively discount Viekira pack will make them the pariah of the industry. As always, thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 22, 2014. 06:38 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    Ed,

    An outstanding comment and very timely. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 22, 2014. 06:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    Jim,

    I firmly expect GILD revenue to rise next year as the VA contract kicks in along with sales growth of Zeldig and its HIV franchise. The main driver will continue to be the HCV franchise for the short term, I am optimistic in the intermediate term GILD will diversify its revenue stream further. The above being said, i will continue to adjust the model after each earnings report. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 22, 2014. 06:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    Indydoc1,

    An excellent observation concerning ABBV. I analyzed ABBV shares a few months back and came away unimpressed. They are facing a biosimilar assault from AMGN on Humira their number one selling compound. They desperately need the Hep C franchise to fill the void yet with today's move this will not happen. They have an inferior product that they had to aggressively discount to gain share. just wait until we get real world clinical failures to boot. Today should have been their shinning moment on the sun instead they were down, quite telling. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 22, 2014. 06:10 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    Check,

    Elaborate on your comment that GILD management team has been out maneuvered.
    Dec 22, 2014. 06:07 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    Dwight,

    A firmly agree. If you objectively look through ESI bluster, the article clearly states they will cover the med for those with fibriotic disease and those with type 2. The med is not excluded from the formulary, its just not ESI preferred product because they didn't get a big enough kickback.

    Here is the logic I am using, lets say someone has been diagnosed with this disease. The person will naturally say to his doc, give me the best treatment you have" not give me an inferior treatment that saves my insurance carrier a bundle of money. Those who are afflicted if they are vocal enough will cause ESI to buckle and cover Sovaldi. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 22, 2014. 06:04 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    mister,

    If you look at Achillon data it achieved their results with the use of Sovaldi. I am not sure GILD would be allowed to purchase them but if they could I am certain they would. They may very well be forced to license the nuc from Achillion to combine with Sovaldi. Either way the event would happen in late 2015 at the earliest which doesn't affect the DCF much at all. LR and I have modeled a severe tapering of revenue growth post 2015 which in my view makes the DCF quite conservative. It takes into account a tapering of sales due to competitors. By 2016 we are hopeful that GILD will have new novel compounds ready to roll out to take up any sort of revenue gap from the HCV franchise. The area to watch is the clinical pipeline and any sort of collaborative deals. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 22, 2014. 05:57 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    zorro,

    Today's move was on extremely high volume, case can be made it smells of capitulation selling. It will be interesting to see how the shares perform for the rest of the year. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 22, 2014. 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    ramansub,

    It will be status quo for GILD as we await further data from their labs. I wouldn't be surprised if they entered into the market here and acquired some shares if they have additional room under their share authorization. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 22, 2014. 05:49 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    bgg,

    My other biotech holdings got hit as well today, I suspect it was an excuse to take profits. The end of the year tends to get exaggerated moves in either direction, I suspect the move down today in GILD was very overdone. GILD traded over 70 million shares today it's highest volume move of the year. If you look at a one year chart, major volume moves have marked a tradeable bottom in the shares. It will be interesting to see how the shares react tomorrow. If I wanted to add exposure I would buy here and put the shares away. If the company new compounds perform as I expect, the potential to enter in at a couple of dollars less will seem trivial. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 22, 2014. 05:48 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    KBKNJ23,

    Thanks for the very kind words. I really appreciate it.
    Dec 22, 2014. 05:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Examining Gilead Sciences' Future Pipeline [View article]
    Buddy,

    It is an interesting company, I am interested to see what the preliminary data shows for their novel compound. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Dec 21, 2014. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fastenal: Impressive Growth But Not Enough To Buy [View article]
    Musings,

    They have traded at a premium due to superior growth prospects and management team. The team relentlessly reduces costs as evidenced by their stellar profit margins. That being said, the shares are a tad overvalued and aren't attractive here. If they every sell-off I may be inclined to open a position. I adjusted the WACC to 8.5 and the terminal growth rate to 3% and came up with a $40 target price. Still not attractive.
    Dec 21, 2014. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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