Commodities are not traded no emotion rather on supply and demand factors. Emotions can play a factor however it is not the primary factor.
As for your commentary on "fundamental analysis" please see http://seekingalpha.co... which contains some long term charts detailing silver and a chart with silver performance compared to the S&P.
Irrespective of what camp you fall into (technician vs fundamentalist) the name of the game is profits. I would venture a guess and say the majority of the authors readers are fundamentalists and would have done superbly buying silver at any point in 2004-2008 and holding today. If you get the major trend correct not much else has to be done. You simply allow the trend to manifest itself and raking in your profits.
Getting the trend correct is never easy though as has been seen in platinum. Platinum which traded for almost double what gold was in 2008 is now less than gold and has never recovered from the 2008 sell-off. Please see http://seekingalpha.co... which details platinums underperformance and has some charts illustrating it.
I would be interested in your opinion as an Elliot wave theorist on what you see in platinum's future. Thanks in advance.
I disagree with your call on the homebuilders. The index is hot due to a pickup in actual activity. An earlier commentator mentioned Florida market which has been recovering quite nicely. We are seeing homes purchased for cash and new activity mostly in the townhouse and apartment complex end of the market. This dovetails nicely with my earlier article talking about real estate which can be viewed by clicking my name. The greatest returns will be seen in the lower end of the market predominantly first time homebuyers due to low interest rates. The high end of the market will remain challenged for a while.
Turning A Skeptic Into A Believer: Why I Am Buying Gold [View article]
I unfortunately believe that QE3 has commenced or will be commencing shortly. The old adage that the Fed stays neutral during an election year is bunk and they will do whatever it takes to inflate the economy to give the current administration the best chance possible to get re-elected. Just disgusting.
Turning A Skeptic Into A Believer: Why I Am Buying Gold [View article]
Mikeurl, I agree with you. As counterintuituve as it sounds buying gold right now is exactly the most risk adverse thing you can do. Perhaps this example may add some context to the debate. I have a good friend that is from Canada, that moved down to the US to work. He would remit money home and was thrilled at first since he was getting 1.35 Canadian for every US dollar he sent back home. It is now an even exchange and he actually loses money due to fees imposed by banks for converting the currency. This has happened in a ten year time span so in essence the USD has lost 35% of its value as compared to the Canadian dollar. The Fed has telegraphed that they want full currency debasement and the trend will continue into 2014.
Turning A Skeptic Into A Believer: Why I Am Buying Gold [View article]
I agree that if Newt where elected that gold would come down due to a strong dollar policy and no new QE's. Even if he were elected you still have at least a 6 month window if not greater to make a nice capital gain. Even if elected it would take time to implement policies. Unfortunately in the interim gold goes higher.
A Week Of Historic Economic Tragedy Ahead [View article]
Just a general point on bond yields. Notice that when the German bond auction went of at paltry yields the auction failed (less than 60% of bonds sold). The investment populace decided that the yield was not sufficient to take on the risk of not getting paid back full principle even though this scenario is extremely remote. There is plenty of liquidity out there that would be overjoyed to lock in 5+% yields especially on short term paper if the threat of full repayment is lifted. Speaking on Italy specifically they have a large industrial base and are known for high quality products worldwide. They need to restructure their society through increasing retirement age, ending the dual tier employment scheme that prevents the young from moving up the employment ladder and keeping older less productive employees, and reduced government spending ie austerity. None of this is pleasant and will be quite painful however if they restructure their society and foster more competition their bonds are a steal here at these rates compared to other large countries such as US, Japan, Germany etc. It will be interesting in the coming months to see how this will all play out. I will close out with a quote from Margaret Thatcher "The problem with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other peoples money."
Why I'm Calling a Real Estate Bottom [View article]
Trying to declare a bottom in real estate is a useless endeavor. People buy real estate for 2 reasons to live in and for investment. If you are purchasing to live in the most important number is your monthly mortgage payment. If it is being purchased for investment it is what type of cash flow you can generate from it. Unless interest rates move at least 1% point higher buying now or 6 months from now is irrelevant.
How Increasing Dividends And Stock Buybacks Leads To Long-Term Capital Gains, Part II [View article]
Shourey,
The underperformance experienced by XOM holders is due to the XTO acquisition and the subsequent fall in commodity prices. That being said we have seen natural gas prices perk up considerably (see chart in linked XOM article) along with strong downstream profits. Crude has been weak however the company has some new projects coming online such as the Kearl Canadian oil sand play that just went operational.
In that time frame XOM continued to buy down shares and raise dividends. I am bullish on them for the next five years and expect them to outperform the market. Thanks for reading and commenting.
Bristol-Myers Has The Future Of Oncology Therapies [View article]
Matt,
Nice article. I am long BMY since last summer when it sold off on the news of the discontinuation of its HCV compound. I minor flaw I noticed in the article. In the last paragraph you mentioned earnings growth to $19.5 billion. Did you mean revenue growth instead?
a fair summation of whats going on with XOM. I noticed you focused on its upstream business yet failed to mention its natural gas component which makes up roughly half of its upstream revenue. With the siginificant jump in nat gas prices recently along with upcoming LNG terminals, XOM should mitigate this problem in the near future. For a more in depth discussion on the natural gas angle see http://seekingalpha.co...
I agree with the team that XOM is a fabulous capital allocater. Many on this site have taken management to task for not paying out higher dividends. In my opinion the current path is the best.
Kroger: A Consistent Performer With Further Upside Potential [View article]
Mike Cowan,
Catalysts for future growth are continued expansion (expect 40-50 new stores this year) in addition to consistently increasing same store sales. KR track record of increasing same store sales is impressive and speaks to how well run the company is.
As for being defeated long term by Wal-mart this will simply not happen. For this to happen you would have to make the case that everyone in America will be willing to forgo quality for the lowest possible price. In this scenario there wouldn't be any high end retail just low end where everyone clamored for the cheapest lowest quality product. Wal-mart is a fierce competitor that caused the traditional supermarket industry to change dramatically. KR is the best run in the category and has managed to consistently grow sales while protecting its home turf against Wal-mart. In my opinion the sales growth consistency is the best indicator of their success in the marketplace.
Hope this helps and thanks for reading and commenting.
Kroger: A Consistent Performer With Further Upside Potential [View article]
DAG1996,
Well stated. KR simply gets no accolades yet is a steady consistent performer. Stocks like this are ideal for dividend growth investors especially younger ones. The stock this month is consistently printing new highs on a daily basis yet hardly anyone notices I will take performance like this any day. Thank you for reading, commenting and following.
Why I Sold BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
baylorbear,
Thanks for making your first comment this site. The rise of the dollar is a signal of a major trend change ie the dollar no longer being a doormat. This has widespread implications (mostly positive) for the US consumer as we will see commodity prices fall in real and in relative terms.
As for the debtor part, I also thought for sure Obama was going to jack taxes up effectively tanking the US economy. Instead the increase was benign at best and now the Congress is actually being forced to be responsible and pass a budget. Expect some sort of deal to come helping spur the economy further. The dollar's gain is real and can get stronger.
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF: A Smart Play [View article]
Roger,
Well done first article. The DXJ is a long term play as we are in the early innings of the weakening yen saga. The returns will be well above average as the yen approaches 120 or higher next year as the quantitative easing campaign kicks in. Thanks for the well written article.
Silver Could Double By Year's End [View article]
Commodities are not traded no emotion rather on supply and demand factors. Emotions can play a factor however it is not the primary factor.
As for your commentary on "fundamental analysis" please see http://seekingalpha.co... which contains some long term charts detailing silver and a chart with silver performance compared to the S&P.
Irrespective of what camp you fall into (technician vs fundamentalist) the name of the game is profits. I would venture a guess and say the majority of the authors readers are fundamentalists and would have done superbly buying silver at any point in 2004-2008 and holding today. If you get the major trend correct not much else has to be done. You simply allow the trend to manifest itself and raking in your profits.
Getting the trend correct is never easy though as has been seen in platinum. Platinum which traded for almost double what gold was in 2008 is now less than gold and has never recovered from the 2008 sell-off. Please see http://seekingalpha.co... which details platinums underperformance and has some charts illustrating it.
I would be interested in your opinion as an Elliot wave theorist on what you see in platinum's future. Thanks in advance.
Time To Short Homebuilders [View article]
I disagree with your call on the homebuilders. The index is hot due to a pickup in actual activity. An earlier commentator mentioned Florida market which has been recovering quite nicely. We are seeing homes purchased for cash and new activity mostly in the townhouse and apartment complex end of the market. This dovetails nicely with my earlier article talking about real estate which can be viewed by clicking my name. The greatest returns will be seen in the lower end of the market predominantly first time homebuyers due to low interest rates. The high end of the market will remain challenged for a while.
Turning A Skeptic Into A Believer: Why I Am Buying Gold [View article]
Turning A Skeptic Into A Believer: Why I Am Buying Gold [View article]
Turning A Skeptic Into A Believer: Why I Am Buying Gold [View article]
A Week Of Historic Economic Tragedy Ahead [View article]
Why I'm Calling a Real Estate Bottom [View article]
How Increasing Dividends And Stock Buybacks Leads To Long-Term Capital Gains, Part II [View article]
The underperformance experienced by XOM holders is due to the XTO acquisition and the subsequent fall in commodity prices. That being said we have seen natural gas prices perk up considerably (see chart in linked XOM article) along with strong downstream profits. Crude has been weak however the company has some new projects coming online such as the Kearl Canadian oil sand play that just went operational.
In that time frame XOM continued to buy down shares and raise dividends. I am bullish on them for the next five years and expect them to outperform the market. Thanks for reading and commenting.
Bristol-Myers Has The Future Of Oncology Therapies [View article]
Nice article. I am long BMY since last summer when it sold off on the news of the discontinuation of its HCV compound. I minor flaw I noticed in the article. In the last paragraph you mentioned earnings growth to $19.5 billion. Did you mean revenue growth instead?
Exxon Mobil Struggles For Growth [View article]
a fair summation of whats going on with XOM. I noticed you focused on its upstream business yet failed to mention its natural gas component which makes up roughly half of its upstream revenue. With the siginificant jump in nat gas prices recently along with upcoming LNG terminals, XOM should mitigate this problem in the near future. For a more in depth discussion on the natural gas angle see http://seekingalpha.co...
I agree with the team that XOM is a fabulous capital allocater. Many on this site have taken management to task for not paying out higher dividends. In my opinion the current path is the best.
DirecTV: One Of My Favorite Long-Term Buys [View article]
Kroger: A Consistent Performer With Further Upside Potential [View article]
Catalysts for future growth are continued expansion (expect 40-50 new stores this year) in addition to consistently increasing same store sales. KR track record of increasing same store sales is impressive and speaks to how well run the company is.
As for being defeated long term by Wal-mart this will simply not happen. For this to happen you would have to make the case that everyone in America will be willing to forgo quality for the lowest possible price. In this scenario there wouldn't be any high end retail just low end where everyone clamored for the cheapest lowest quality product. Wal-mart is a fierce competitor that caused the traditional supermarket industry to change dramatically. KR is the best run in the category and has managed to consistently grow sales while protecting its home turf against Wal-mart. In my opinion the sales growth consistency is the best indicator of their success in the marketplace.
Hope this helps and thanks for reading and commenting.
Kroger: A Consistent Performer With Further Upside Potential [View article]
Well stated. KR simply gets no accolades yet is a steady consistent performer. Stocks like this are ideal for dividend growth investors especially younger ones. The stock this month is consistently printing new highs on a daily basis yet hardly anyone notices I will take performance like this any day. Thank you for reading, commenting and following.
Why I Sold BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
Thanks for making your first comment this site. The rise of the dollar is a signal of a major trend change ie the dollar no longer being a doormat. This has widespread implications (mostly positive) for the US consumer as we will see commodity prices fall in real and in relative terms.
As for the debtor part, I also thought for sure Obama was going to jack taxes up effectively tanking the US economy. Instead the increase was benign at best and now the Congress is actually being forced to be responsible and pass a budget. Expect some sort of deal to come helping spur the economy further. The dollar's gain is real and can get stronger.
tanks for reading and commenting.
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF: A Smart Play [View article]
Well done first article. The DXJ is a long term play as we are in the early innings of the weakening yen saga. The returns will be well above average as the yen approaches 120 or higher next year as the quantitative easing campaign kicks in. Thanks for the well written article.