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Alexander J. Poulos

 
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  • The Power Of Patience: The Investment Case For Intel [View article]
    Norman,

    Over time due to the wide moat that INTC possesses, I am confident I will receive a fair return on my initial investment. I wrote this piece more so as a study of what to do when a position heads south on someone. I figured using a real world example would work better. I am optimistic that INTC will perform better than a utility stock over the course of the rest of this decade. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 11 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Just How Much Capacity Do They Have? [View article]
    Ephud,

    Agreed that some piece is missing. I am confident management wouldn't be adding capacity unless warranted. They must expect a significant uptick in business, I just wonder what it will be. I am long INTC.
    Jan 26 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting My Bullish Thesis On BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    falconcraig,

    When investing, I get the best results from ignoring the experts and doing my own research. You are correct Cramer (supposed expert) was selling in the 90's but was buying at levels higher than that. If the stock recovers above 90 he will be buying then.

    The same con game is being played out in homebuilders. The time to buy them was last year and now magically buy ratings are being put on them after running up on average 80%. Ridiculous.

    Thank you for reading and commenting.
    Jan 11 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Return Of Capital Now Trumps Return On Capital [View article]
    Cesc,

    Actually I prefer a 50% stake in the SP500 with the rest spread out among individual names. I have 4 separate accounts that I manage which these holdings reside in. I am 88% cash and plan on staying there for a while. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Nov 17 08:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Return Of Capital Now Trumps Return On Capital [View article]
    La Marque,

    If you are in a lower tax bracket the difference won't amount to much. The danger is if companies decide to stop raising dividends instead deploying the cash to buy other companies such as what they did in the 90's. As for myself, I am in the accumulation phase and would be better served sitting it out and looking for a more favorable entry point. thanks for reading and commenting.
    Nov 17 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks' Hot New Dividend [View article]
    Tradevestor,

    I agree with your premise concerning SBUX. I wrote an article comparing it'd dividend to MCD which can be seen http://seekingalpha.co...

    SBUX has a much higher growth rate and in few years i wouldn't be surprised if it pays a similar dividend to MCD. SBUX is an excellent choice for growth and income and I am long SBUX and MCD for different reasons.
    Nov 2 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Options To Speculate On Apple [View article]
    djohnsonhot,

    It as interesting to watch AAPL probe down unde $590 yet bounce a bit from there. The shares look weak here however I get the feeling the market is waiting for an event to unfold before deciding its next move. My gut feeling is the outcome of the election and if I am correct we should see some resolution here in a week. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Oct 31 09:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Options To Speculate On Apple [View article]
    Will,

    You misunderstood. The Leaps and options I mentioned have a similar risk profile. The risk I mentioned was based on the cost of the option. With ever trade you must be open the possibility of a total loss. The comment about being too risky entails the total amount of premium at risk was more than I was willing to commit to the trade.

    The other strategies you highlight are spread trades which are valid as well. Spread trades involve less risk since the position is hedged yet the upside is capped. In the examples you provided you purchase (Feb 585 call) net debit of $53 offset by sale of dec 630 for 31.62 netting you a total debit of $21.38.your profit is from $606.38 until $630 (assuming $630 is hit).

    Of course if the trade breaks down and 630 isn't hit you keep the premium to offset your cost. The downside to the trade is if AAPL catches fire and trades up to new highs (loss of upside) or the shares breakdown where total debit maybe at risk.

    My feeling on AAPL is this is a make or break quarter for them. If they execute well and outperform the shares will take off to new highs. If they don't we will see it trade sharply (think under $500) lower. They key to my thesis is getting the direction correct.

    Thanks for reading and providing an excellent counter trade to my thesis. You raise some excellent points and I appreciate it. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Oct 31 09:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using The Recent Decline To Enter Into A Long Position In IBM [View article]
    12:29 PM IBM has added $5B to its stock buyback plan, raising the company's total authorization size to $11.7B. That's good for buying back 5.3% of outstanding shares at current levels. IBM's huge buybacks are a big reason why it has met or beaten EPS estimates (I, II) in recent quarters even as its revenue misses

    Buying back 5% of all shares outstanding will certainly help us shareholders.
    Oct 30 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using The Recent Decline To Enter Into A Long Position In IBM [View article]
    Momintn,

    Buybacks are very effective as long as they aren't buy back the shares you dilute current shareholders with via option grants. Cisco Systems is infamous for this and has given buybacks a bad name because of it.

    IBM has shown over the last ten years the ability to intelligently and diligently buy back shares and shrinking the actual shares outstanding. Today's announcement is an additional example of this strategy in action. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Oct 30 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using The Recent Decline To Enter Into A Long Position In IBM [View article]
    Esekla,

    I agree as well that business technology has room for future innovation. I believe that IBM will play a major role in this going forward. Thanks again for reading and commenting.
    Oct 24 12:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using The Recent Decline To Enter Into A Long Position In IBM [View article]
    WACG,

    I am an amateur investor who doesn't try to pick tops or bottoms when entering into a position. I base decisions on fundamentals and predictability. In IBM's case, I believe that they have a wide moat and a fairly predictable business. I expect to compound gains over the rest of the decade.
    With that in mind waiting until after the election or fiscal cliff is over with is not opportune. The shares are down quite a bit in light of what was perceived as a weak performance. I am using this opportunity to enter into a position. Perhaps, you will be proven correct and the shares will be lower in November/December. I am comfortable at this level. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Oct 22 11:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using The Recent Decline To Enter Into A Long Position In IBM [View article]
    rcpatrick5443,

    Thanks for reading. IBM greatest strength is its consistency no matter what type of economy we are currently in. I expect the company to perform well over the coming years as well.
    Oct 22 11:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting The Bullish Case For McDonald's [View article]
    Frosty,

    I am familiar with 5 Guys and Red Robin so I can speak a bit about them. Red Robin has been around for a while and differs from MCD in two ways. It competes in the fast casual space and doesn't have a drive thru where MCD is a Quick serve restaurant. Red Robin tries to be a more "gourmet burger" with a higher price point. 5 Guys also doesn't have a drive thru and serves a very limited menu (burgers, fries, no chicken or salad dishes). As you pointed out this trend has been happening countrywide however as we can see from MCD revenue numbers it hasn't stopped them from consistently increasing sales in the US. I strongly agree with your premise that its proven adaptability will lead to future revenue growth. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Oct 20 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing McDonald's To Altria Group: Which Will Provide Superior Long-Term Dividend Growth? [View article]
    Mike,

    It would be interesting to see in the not so distant future if MO actually makes a e-cigarette version of its flagship Marlboro brand. This could potentially be a new lucrative niche for them.
    Oct 18 07:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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