Alexander Maxwell

Value, growth, long-term horizon, biotech
Alexander Maxwell
Value, growth, long-term horizon, biotech
Contributor since: 2013
The very small amount of sales with such a massive marketing partner helps to show that the product is not able to succeed in the marketplace.
What standing do MNKD or MNKD shareholders have to sue SNY? SNY did not violate the contract even if you are unhappy with the outcome.
Hi deadaim,
Thank you for your response. I still don't think that any of these elements are going to save MNKD:
1. RSL deal is not good enough to provide sufficient upfront cash for MNKD to stay afloat.
2. Al Mann is unlikely to continue funding this company, as it has been shown that Afrezza is unable to succeed in the market.
3. Global TS licensing deals (another SA author did a fantastic job rebutting this).
4. Global partner (I assume fro Afrezza) is unlikely Sanofi didn't succeed and a lot of other partners are hesitant about marketing the product because of the sheer cost. Any deal would be very skewed towards the partner and not towards MNKD as MNKD has very little leverage.
5. Mannkind does not have the cash to market or build a sales force surrounding Afrezza on its own.
6. MNKD 2.0 (which rebrand are we on now?) is not likely to succeed anytime soon.
Don't be sold on a pie in the sky, the company needs cash now to be able to advance TS to the point that people would be interested in partnering.
Thanks, I appreciate it! I hope that this will get others more interested in other IP plays as well. I should release an article sometime soon with other IP plays that I am looking at. Thank you for reading and commenting.
It will be very interesting to see what the judge does with this. The jury concluded that there was willful infringement on every count.
Hi playpen007,
Thank you for your response. I do not necessarily see manipulation as the issue facing this stock. Instead, I view the issue being that Vringo needs to start hyping its litigation vs. big name defendants again. It should also look to start going after other telecom companies. Vringo's value will come in its ability to monetize its IP moving forward.
Hi agemamnus,
Thank you. I am hoping that you were able to buy some of the company before the massive increase afterhours today.
VirnetX is not simply a patent troll. VHC has actually built an entire technology platform called Gabriel around its technology, and is hurt everyday that Apple continues to infringe upon their patents.
Apple will have to pay up regardless due to the past infringement of the patent. Even if Apple attempts to find a work around that will still take a long time.
While an injunction would sink Apple, I believe it to be highly unlikely in this case. There is no clear harm in continuing to allow for Apple to use these patents beyond monetary harm. Usually VHC would have to have a competing product in that space in order for an injunction to be a possibility and even then that would still be unlikely.
For now VHC has had its day. It will be interesting to see what an appeals court does but I don't think that Apple has very much ground to stand on when asking for an appeals court to once again throw out the verdict.
We were lucky enough to have the trial in Texas which has historically been good for plaintiffs. It should be interesting to see if this ruling follows the trend.
I think that we are only seeing the beginning of a short squeeze. If we see a big verdict today people need to watch out. This could run up even higher than where we currently are.
I also think that some of its value is still locked in its pipeline. We are so focused on the upcoming PDUFA decision that we are missing the fact that TTNP still has an incredibly promising pipeline that should be relatively inexpensive to develop.
Should the jury come back with a verdict of $500 million, I think it is clear that Apple would be able to drag the case out on appeal for a while but it seems unlikely that they would be able to win another reversal.
Hi M Cuturic,
Thanks for the comment. The formaldehyde issues are the big question mark surrounding the stock. It will be very interesting going forward. However, if you believe that Lumber Liquidators will not be put out of business by this whole issue, then shares are looking very cheap right now.
The company should be smart enough to be able to maximize when to do an equity offering. I agree that the offering should give investors confidence that VHC will have enough money to see the case through the requisite appeals. This should also create a situation where Apple starts running for the hills, as they will not be able to simply intimidate VHC into a settlement.
I would bet heavily on an appeal. I do not, however, believe that Apple would be successful in getting the verdict overturned on appeal.
It could be a big catalyst the question is whether the government will in some way favor Probuphine over other treatments.
TTNP is a stock that I have been watching for many years. I am hopeful that the company is finally on the right track towards substantial growth.
I don't think that the bankruptcy thesis has been at all debunked. There is nothing for an acquiring company to want to pay for. Afrezza is not worth much (while I think it is a good drug, evidently there is not much demand for it in the marketplace), Technosphere might be promising but there are clearly concerns about lung delivery from the FDA.
I have to agree. I am very skeptical of another company taking on Afrezza and of the ability of Mannkind to market Afrezza. Sanofi's large sales force and large marketing budget was unable to help the product to successfully penetrate the market. I don't see how any partner with a smaller sales force is going to be able to change that situation.
Sorry I didn't see your question the first time. I have no position and am not being compensated directly or indirectly by any entities that would like for me to influence the MNKD share price. As I said in the disclosure the only compensation I have received from this article is from Seeking Alpha.
I have to agree. I'm surprised that the stock has been priced that low. At least we saw a pretty large spike yesterday. The increase in volume is a good sign that the runup should continue heading into the PDUFA date.
I can understand believing in Afrezza. It seems like a very useful and innovative product for diabetics. My question would be who do you see marketing Afrezza? Mannkind does not seem to have the needed resources in order to be able to market the product.
The conference call should help to give more clarity on where the company sees itself going. It will be interesting to see if this conference call is able to switch Market sentiment.
Hi Awe,
Thank you for reading and commenting. Under what standing would MNKD sue? It does not appear as though Sanofi broke the contract.
Hi Bearrr,
Thank you for commenting. The way that I look at it is that investors are safe from delisting so long as MNKD stays over a dollar, investors do not have to worry about delisting. The stock would have to trade under $1 for at least 30 days before it would be at risk. The company would then receive a notice and have a time period in which to correct (typically through a R/S). I hope that this helps.
For more information on delisting see: http://tinyurl.com/j49...
Thanks,
Alex
Does not specify the amount of milestone payments. It doesn't destroy the underlying thesis that a company with no good revenue streams and a dwindling cash pile is ultimately headed for an unfortunate end. Even if the milestones were as high as five million that buys Mannkind what, at most two months?
Hi Robert,
Thank you for the comment. As I specified in the disclosure I do not have a position either way in MNKD.
Thanks,
Alex
Day to day movements in the stock does not prove this report accurate or inaccurate. I would caution against using one movement in stock to try to dismiss the thesis. Instead look at performance over the last year and you will see that there are substantial problems.
Mr. Mann understands when to leave a bad investment. Why would he continue to throw good money after bad? It seems to me like he thought the idea would work. It didn't, and I would now expect him to say that he will not prop up the company anymore.