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Ali Mogharabi  

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  • Avid Technology - Shares Poised To Appreciate Following Recent Completion Of Restatement And Re-Listing To Nasdaq [View article]
    $AVID was not really abandoned as it continued to operate efficiently and made clear that the accounting reviews had nothing to do with overstating total revenues. And given where it is at right now, and how it has performed the last 12 months, would you really call it "out of favor"? I pitched this in Dec. '12 ( and in March of this year ( and certainly provided updates along the way.

    By the way, the huge increase in volume that you've seen the last week has been partially due to one of their Directors going on an AVID stock buying frenzy. Look at the SEC filings.

    We still like it and will review our valuation this weekend. Fundamentally it remains sound, but from a technical standpoint, the recent spike has created some additional risk.
    Dec 3, 2014. 12:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cinemark: Still The Best Bet In Movie Theatres? [View article]
    In case you're interested, I discussed $CNK, $CKEC, $RGC, and $AMC, along with the overall movie exhibition space earlier this year ...




    Aug 28, 2014. 02:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IACI Bounces On Investor Relief, Time To Buy? [View article]
    We've said some things about $IACI before. Think its fair value these days is around $60/sh even w/ a potential spin off of Match ...
    and many others we've written on $IACI the last 12-18 months
    Aug 19, 2014. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blucora: A Financially Stable Equity With Fierce Competition Ahead [View article]
    A lot of risk still associated with BCOR and unfortunately it isn't yet priced in, IMO. In addition, given its very different lines of business, a sum-of-parts valuation is more appropriate for this company ... again, IMO.
    Jul 6, 2014. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regal Entertainment: A Competitor's New Strategy Could Pressure Future Dividends [View article]
    Overall thoughts on some of the movie theatre companies, including $RGC, $AMC, $CNK, and $CKEC ...
    May 8, 2014. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blucora: Falling Into Value Territory [View article]
    Thoughts on BCOR ... other links included that'll take you through when BCOR (along with IACI) was initially suggested ...
    May 8, 2014. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Will Not Be Acquired [View article]
    Absolutely right. Besides Dreamworks, NFLX doesn't have long-term deals guaranteeing it access to popular content. Without popular content, sub growth won't accelarate. Deals such as CW can actually be viewed as 'long-tail' content deals. And long-tail content doesn't bring in new subs, it just helps maintain current subs. And with the cheap subscriber model that NFLX launched initially, it can't go back on its subs and up its prices that easily, as we've seen. And combined with the liabilities that you pointed out, unless it can raise big chunk of capital, it'll be tough for NFLX to acquire rights to popular content at prices that can keep it above water. Lastly, although its long-tail content and/or old content may have fans in the intl mkts, it will likely be facing even more pricing pressure in those markets.
    Oct 19, 2011. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Will Not Be Acquired [View article]
    Great article. If it gets cheap enough, yes there may be a buyer. We must keep in mind that there is not really a 'trend' in the content and distribution markets. We've got companies that want to be the one-stop shop and others that are fine specializing in just content production or distribution. With that in mind, there may be a content provider that would be interested, at the right price, of course. TWX would be one. Although I wouldn't say it'd be as excited about getting a service provider such as NFLX (whose service is severly commoditized), as it was when it merged with AOL years ago! :) Overall, I do agree with everything you said. Great article.
    Oct 19, 2011. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Friday's Options Activity To Get Ready For Monday's Market [View article]
    Very true; that was Hasting's pitch in 2003!

    A couple of things ... nice touch of the Boss in the article (kicking a dog that's been beat too much) ...

    Regarding NFLX, its been so successful that its gotten to Hasting's head. He's viewing the argument of how and why he ended up with millions of subs as a chicken or the egg argument. While his 'long-tail' content library helped, what initially drove many to subscribe was popular and well-branded content that he was lucky to get his hands on for cheap early in the 'new media' phase. But as we know, content, the popular content is King. And now he's forced to bow down to the content makers/providers.

    The assumption that CW will help maintain his subs and/or lower churn and/or lower SAC and/or drive sub growth rate will turn out to be false. His great model has become commoditized, he has many more competitors that he must take seriously, and ... as usual the winners are the content providers. I'd say if this downtrend continues, the best thing that could happen would be for the company to be acquired by an MSO or telco.
    Oct 16, 2011. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Beaten Down Stocks That Look Ready To Surge Higher [View article]
    Sorry about RIMM. Looks like it will take a big dump tomorrow.
    Sep 15, 2011. 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Construction Still in a Bottoming Formation [View article]
    Digging just a bit deeper into the data, I noticed that since March'10, single family homes (or "1 unit") permits have continued to decline, including in August (released Tues morning). MDUs (multi units) have increased. What does this mean? I'm thinking that builders are now seeing more demand for and valuing MDUs higher. They are assuming that the strong rental mkt will likely get stronger, which is likely at the expense of the single-family homes. So, this data isn't really that rosy. For single-family home permits, they declined in every region except the South, which remained flat.

    Seeing similar pattern with the 'authorized but not started' data. Actually the only housing types that grew were the 2-4 units. Both 1 units and 5+ units declined more than 3%. And the 1 units showed decline in ALL regions; month/month and Y/Y.

    Data for homes started was better, but this is basically looking back as the permits and authorizations for homes started were given out in prior time periods. But even the better data, supports my negative viewppoint mentioned in the 1st paragraph - multi units growing much more than single family homes. 5+ unit home starts (already started) grew 42.7% in August, compared to a mere 4.3% for 1 unit homes. And the 1unit growth was driven mainly by the West and Midwest regions ... which brings us to the most important thing regarding this data ... INIVENTORY. And those 2 regions are the worst hit during this housing crash. So why are we building more???? No matter how you look at it, with foreclosures continuing to rise, which means shadow inventory growing as banks are more aggressively grabing those homes (only the recently troubled ones), why would building more homes be positive????? Does it create jobs? Sure, but does it put a dent into this wacko unemployment of ours? Nope.

    So with these supposed great #s, we may actually be doing more harm to the housing mkt by increasing inventory.
    Sep 22, 2010. 12:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts Have Been Stable for a Year [View article]
    The only thing I would agree with is that there was something positive about the housing starts/permits figures, with permits showing a significant decline. All of this is positive as it limits inventory growth. Such decline combined with a slowdown in foreclosures, which we have not yet seen, could actually create a tiny light at the end of the dark housing market tunnel. But it will take a lonog time for all of this to happen.
    Aug 19, 2010. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Yields Tower Over Bond Yields [View article]
    Sir, my point was that the 45% bottom-line growth he discussed may have 'justified' the mkt's huge upswing since last year's March lows. But given that such rate won't continue and might just decline significantly, along with additional uncertainty about the stability and growth of the economy going fwd, the fear and uncertainty surrounding the equity mkt can't just be discounted so easily as the author of this article appears to do day in and day out.
    Aug 16, 2010. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The widening of the trade deficit indicates that Q2 GDP growth was more anemic than the originally reported 2.4% annual rate. Combined with the latest inventory report, the data suggest GDP will be revised sharply lower - closer to 1%, even as low as 0.3%.  [View news story]
    Inventory replenishment especially during the first 1-2 months of Q2.
    Aug 15, 2010. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Yields Tower Over Bond Yields [View article]
    I'm not a well-known economist such as yourself, but I'd like to refute your argument with a simple thought. Highlighting the first half's 45% annual earnings growth is misleading and basically irrelevant as that period's Y/Y comparison is unusually easy. You may remember that everything nearly came to a standstill during 1H '09. For this reason, its less likely that such growth rate will continue during the next six month. In fact, due to no sign of solid revenue growth going forward, that 45% annual rate may actually decline significantly. For this reason I think your conclusion ("tremendous amount of fear, uncertainty and doubt that plagues the market these days" are unwarranted), is based on a faulty argument.
    Aug 15, 2010. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment