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Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 46 years of investment... More
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Investing for Survival
  • The Morning Call & Subscriber Alert---Watch Those 100 Day Moving Averages

    I am taking this holiday weekend off, so no Closing Bell. See you on Monday. Have a great fourth.

    The Market

    Technical

    The indices (DJIA 17758, S&P 2077) made further gains yesterday on the news that the Greek PM had folded like a cheap umbrella. Both finished below its 100 day moving average---the Dow for the sixth day, the S&P for the third day. The Dow bounced back above its 200 day moving average. In addition, the Dow recovered back above the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend, voiding its current challenge.

    Longer term, the Averages are in uptrends across all timeframes: short term (17491-20297, 2060-3039), intermediate term (17685-23837, 1853-2621) and long term (5369-19175, 797-2138).

    Volume declined; breadth was mixed. The VIX fell 12%, but remained above its 100 day moving average and within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.

    The long Treasury dropped 1.5%, finishing below its 100 day moving average and the upper boundaries of its very short term downtrend and short term downtrend.

    GLD remained comatose, closing below its 100 day moving average and the neckline of the head and shoulders formation. Oil was down big, reflecting rumors that a draft was being circulated on an Iranian nuke deal (later denied); it ended below the upper boundary of its short term trading range. The dollar rose, but still closed below its 100 day moving average and the lower boundary of a very short term downtrend.

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-01/gold-shrugs-off-armageddon

    Bottom line: the Market's technical picture improved as both the Averages are now back above the lower boundaries of uptrends---voiding the challenges to those trends. (This recent pin action is a great illustration of the rationale behind our time and distance discipline.) In addition, the 'safe haven' plays that I have been watching (Treasuries, gold and the dollar) continued to act as though Greece, Puerto Rico and China are not problems (in truth, we did get good news on the first two)---which indicates a lack of fear in current investor psychology and bodes well for stocks short term.

    On the other hand, volume was unimpressive, breadth was mixed and both the indices are still well below their 100 day moving averages. If the current bounce stops short of those moving averages, that is likely a sign that there is further downside.

    Stock performance in pre-election years that lag (short):

    http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/122969068103/typical-pre-election-year-cheer-stymied-by-debt

    Fundamental

    Headlines

    Yesterday's US economic news turned mixed. The good news came in the ADP private payroll report, the June ISM manufacturing index and May construction spending; the bad news was weekly mortgage and purchase applications, the June PMI manufacturing index and June light vehicle sales. I don't think that this has any meaning beyond an endorsement of our forecast of a sluggishly growing economy.

    http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-economy-is-doing-just-fine.html

    In Greece, Tsipras said that he would accept the latest Troika offer with a few minor modifications and call off the referendum. The Troika's response: sorry, Charlie, (1) those modifications are not minor, (2) our offer is off the table and (3) we want the referendum. In short, the bluff has been called and the Troika holds the cards. So the Sunday referendum vote now appears to be the next event (the outcome of which it seems that the Troika is betting will be that the Greeks want to remain in the euro---although this crisis remains a minute to minute affair, so I won't be surprised whatever happens. Bottom line, Tsipras blinked and that probably means that the odds of a Grexit have declined.

    Here is a great article on how a Greek default would work, or not (medium):

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/07/01/2133322/defaulting-on-the-imf-a-stupid-idea-whose-time-had-come/

    Here is an article on how this mess could get resolved, or not (medium):

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/07/tsipras-accepts-most-terms-as-merkel-insists-on-referendum.html

    Puerto Rico and Greece have the same problem (medium):

    http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/063015-759765-us-investors-are-major-holders-of-puerto-ricos-bad-debts.htm

    In Puerto Rico, the government met all principal and interest payments on current debt yesterday. The can has been kicked.

    In China, markets continued to decline (medium):

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/02/business/international/chinese-markets-fall-again-ignoring-beijings-efforts-to-soothe-them.html?_r=0

    ***overnight, the Chinese stock market fell again. And in other news the central bank of Sweden lowered key interest rates.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-02/swedens-qe-officially-broken-riksbank-doubles-down-lowers-rates-even-more-negative-b

    Bottom line: it now looks like the odds have increased that Greece will remain in the euro and that Puerto Rico will continue to service its debts. That doesn't mean that they will or even if they do that either's fiscal problems have been solved. Indeed, they will likely only get worse and pop up again at some future date except that circumstances will be even more dire. Nonetheless, the risk of a major negative event occurring short term has seemingly lessened.

    Now the question is, did these recent unsettling events cause investors to stop daydreaming and make a serious re-examination of their current valuation parameters? If not, then we will likely be see another challenge of the current all-time highs. If so, this decline is not over given the extraordinary gap between current prices and historical valuation metrics.

    Update on valuation:

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Regression-to-Trend.php

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/PE-Ratios-and-Market-Valuation.php

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Q-Ratio-and-Market-Valuation.php

    Private equity firms continue to be large sellers of stock (medium):

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-01/smartest-money-liquidating-stocks-record-pace-theyre-selling-everything-that%E2%80%99s-not-b

    Four minutes with Robert Shiller:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-01/when-people-jump-even-though-its-overpriced-thats-bubble-shiller-warns

    Subscriber Alert

    The stock price of MSC Industrial Direct (MSM-$69) has fallen below the upper boundary of its Buy Value Range. Accordingly, it is being Added to the Dividend Growth Buy List. No shares will be Bought at this time.

    Investing for Survival

    Things that Wall Street pros don't want you to know (medium):

    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/things-people-in-the-finance-industry-dont-want-you-to-know/

    Company Highlight

    Paychex Inc. provides computerized payroll-accounting services, salary deposit services, automatic payroll tax payment and tax return filing services and human resource products and services to approximately 580,000 small and medium sized businesses. The company has earned a 25%+ return on equity over the last 10 years and has grown profits and dividends 8-13% in the same time period. While PAYX is somewhat sensitive to the economy, it should continue to provide above average returns as a result of:

    (1) rising number of checks processed as well as an increase in revenue per check,

    (2) acquisitions,

    (3) price increases,

    (4) geographic expansion,

    (5) an R&D effort designed to expand product offerings,

    (6) stock buy backs

    Negatives:

    (1) a weak economy negatively impacts the growth of its client base,

    (2) low interest rates are impacting 'interest on funds held for clients'.

    PAYX is rated A by Value Line, has no debt and its stock yields 3.3%.

    Statistical Summary

    Stock Dividend Payout # Increases

    Yield Growth Rate Ratio Since 2005

    PAYX 3.3% 9% 80% 8

    Ind Ave 1.8 11* 37 NA

    Debt/ EPS Down Net Value Line

    Equity ROE Since 2005 Margin Rating

    PAYX 0% 39% 2 25% A

    Ind Ave 20 20 NA 11 NA

    *over one half of the companies in PAYX's industry don't pay a dividend

    Chart

    Note: PAYX stock made good progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its July 2007 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line). Long term, the stock is in an uptrend (blue lines). Intermediate term, it is in an uptrend (purple lines). Short term it is in an uptrend (brown line). The wiggly red line is the 100 day moving average. The Dividend Growth Portfolio owns a 100% position in PAYX. The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $25; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $55.

    (click to enlarge)

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PAYX

    7/15

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

    Paychex EPS in-line, beats on revenue

    · Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX): FQ4 EPS of $0.44 in-line.

    · Revenue of $692.2M (+8.3% Y/Y) beats by $1.85M.

    Economics

    This Week's Data

    The June PMI manufacturing index was reported at 53.6 versus expectations of 53.7.

    The June ISM manufacturing index came in at 53.5 versus estimates of 53.2.

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ISM-Manufacturing.php

    May construction spending rose 0.8% versus consensus of up 0.5%.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/07/construction-spending-increased-08-in.html

    Light vehicle sales fell in June.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/07/us-light-vehicle-sales-decreased-to-171.html

    Weekly jobless claims were up 10,000 versus expectations of a decline of 1,000.

    June nonfarm payrolls increased 31,000 less than in May versus estimates that it would be 50,000 less; however, May's job growth was lowered by 26,000.

    Other

    Politics

    Domestic

    International War Against Radical Islam

    Jul 02 9:01 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Morning Call--A Reprieve?

    The Market

    Technical

    The indices (DJIA 17619, S&P 2063) rebounded weakly yesterday. Both finished below its 100 day moving average---the Dow for the fifth day, the S&P for the second day. The Dow also ended below its 200 day moving average for the second day. In addition, the Dow closed below the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend for the second day; while the S&P moved back above the lower boundary of its short term uptrend.

    http://streettalklive.com/index.php/blog.html?id=2784

    Longer term, if the Dow remains below the lower boundary of its intermediate term up trend through the close on Thursday, that trend will be negated. With the bounce of the S&P back above the lower boundary of its short term uptrend, that challenge is now voided. For the moment, the uptrends are: short term (17478-20284, 2060-3039), intermediate term (17679-23831, 1853-2621) and long term (5369-19175, 797-2138).

    Volume increased; breadth recovered nicely. The VIX declined 3%, but remained above its 100 day moving average and the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend for a second day, negating that trend. It is now within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX.php

    The long Treasury was up down slightly, finishing below its 100 day moving average and the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend.

    http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2015/06/28/the-market-waits-for-no-one/

    GLD remained comatose, closing below its 100 day moving average and the neckline of the head and shoulders formation. Oil was up on huge volume, but still ended below the upper boundary of its short term trading range. The dollar rose, closing below its 100 day moving average and the lower boundary of a very short term downtrend.

    Bottom line: yesterday's weak stock rally did little to repair the Monday's technical damage. While the S&P did manage to recover back above the lower boundary of its short term uptrend, neither index could regain its 100 day moving averages. The bad news is that there was no improvement in the headlines out of Greece, Puerto Rico or China. The good news is that all the typical 'safe haven' alternatives (Treasuries, gold and the dollar) are acting like nothing has happened. The key remains follow through.

    Fundamental

    Headlines

    Yesterday's US economic stats were again upbeat: month to date retail chain store sales rose modestly, the April Case Shiller home price index was up less than anticipated and the June consumer confidence was much stronger than forecast. There was one disappointment---the June Chicago PMI.

    Goldman lowers its 2015 forecast for GDP, sales and earnings growth (medium):

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-30/goldman-just-crushed-strong-fundamentals-lie-cuts-eps-gdp-revenue-and-profit-forecas

    ***overnight, Chinese manufacturing PMI was unchanged while the Japanese capital spending number improved significantly.

    But the numbers continue to take a back seat to other developments:

    (1) the Greek bailout/Grexit remains a minute to minute crisis. As of last night, Greece missed the IMF payment, Tsipras rejected another offer from the Troika, the official bailout program ended last night and the ECB meets today to decide if it will end the liquidity injection program for the Greek banks. Despite one escalation move after another, it appears [based on the pin action in the Treasury, gold and dollar markets] that investors continue to believe that a solution will be reached to keep Greece in the euro.

    Investors still not panicking over Greece (short):

    http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2015/06/a-greek-default-does-not-rise-to-level.html

    ***overnight, Tsipras appeared to be backing down, telling the Troika that he would accept the terms of their latest proposal with some minor changes. A source at the ECB, responded that those changes were not minor. In the meantime, officials are meeting to consider the latest Greek offer.

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e82e0256-1fcb-11e5-ab0f-6bb9974f25d0.html#axzz3ecDnV4l7

    Though Germany appears to be taking a hard line (short):

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-01/merkel-addresses-german-parliament-key-points

    (2) Puerto Rico's governor stated that the commonwealth's debts are not payable. There is a lot of disagreement as to exactly how dire this crisis is---not that there isn't a major problem, but rather just how potentially disruptive it could be.

    A report on Puerto Rico's financial problems (short):

    http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/06/the-anne-krueger-report-on-puerto-rico.html

    What Puerto Rico's debt crisis means to muni bondholders (medium):

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/13202416/1/what-puerto-ricos-debt-crisis-means-for-muni-investors.html

    (3) the volatility continues in the Chinese stock market, most of it to the downside. The concerns here are [a] the impact that a stock market bust could have on Chinese consumer spending at a time that the economy is already slowing and [b] contagion that spreads to other global securities' markets.

    Among the many problems facing the Chinese market is the lack of experience of fund managers (medium):

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-30/chinas-etrade-babies-wiped-out-market-crash

    Bottom line: there remain a number of problems with which the Markets must deal. Potentially, none of them may lead to negative consequences that would threaten US economic or corporate profit growth. On the other hand, every one of them could. The point being that there are a lot of unknowns out there and the recent decline in prices hardly reflect those risks. So I wouldn't be stepping in front of this train, even if I thought that stocks were reasonably value before Greece, Puerto Rico and the Chinese markets problem hit critical mass.

    As I noted yesterday, it is far too early to be assuming that one or more of these crisis could lead to mean reversion in equity prices. So I am not advocating running for the hills. However, if our Portfolios hadn't already Sold a portion of their holdings that had hit their Sell Half Prices and/or those companies that no longer met our quality criteria, I would have a list of the stocks that I would Sell and the quantities I would Sell taped to my computer screen.

    The latest from Bill Gross (must read):

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/20150630-janus-capital-group-it-never-rains-in-california

    Investing for Survival

    12 things I learned from David Tepper: #11

    11. "After you work on Wall Street it's a choice, would you rather work at McDonalds or on the sell-side? I would choose McDonalds over the sell-side."

    The sell-side provides services to clients for a fee. There's an old joke that goes like this: "What's the difference between the buy-side and the sell-side? The buy-sider curses at you and hangs up the phone. The sell-sider hangs up the phone and then curses at you." The sell-side is selling and will tell you what you want to hear. The sell-side's job is to directly or indirectly generate fees. Sell-siders do not have what Nassim Taleb calls "skin-in-the-game."

    Ben Carlson has described the life of a sell-sider: "When I worked on the sell-side the head of research pulled up the total number of buy and sell recommendations from every analyst during one meeting, there were only 3 sell calls - in the entire firm. He was basically begging these analysts to make a sell recommendation or two. Yet they weren't really budging because… Relationships Matter. What I came to realize is that all of the number crunching didn't matter nearly as much as the meetings and conference calls with company management. These relationships all carried much more weight than the financial models that the junior analysts toiled away at back at the office. The analysts didn't seem to want to make a critical call against a company in fear of upsetting the management relationship where they got their questions answered."

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

    General Mills beats by $0.04, misses on revenue

    o General Mills (NYSE:GIS): FQ4 EPS of $0.75 beats by $0.04.

    o Revenue of $4.3B (+0.5% Y/Y) misses by $230M.

    Economics

    This Week's Data

    Month to date retail chain store sales rose slightly.

    The April Case Shiller home price index was up 0.3% versus expectations of up 0.8%.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/06/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html

    The June Chicago PMI was reported at 49.4 versus estimates of 50.6.

    June consumer confidence came in at 101.4 versus consensus of 97.4.

    Weekly mortgage applications fell 4.7% while purchase applications were down 4.0%

    The June ADP private payrolls report showed an increase in jobs by 237,000 versus expectations of a rise of 220,000.

    Other

    Politics

    Domestic

    International War Against Radical Islam

    A brief history of US/Iran nuclear negotiations (medium):

    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/06/goodnight-vienna.php

    Jul 01 8:49 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Morning Call--Monday's Disaster Hat Trick

    The Market

    Technical

    The indices (DJIA 17596, S&P 2057) took it in the snoot yesterday in the aftermath of the Greek government's decision to call a referendum on the Troika's bail out proposal, the fear of Puerto Rican bond default and a crashing Chinese market. Both finished below its 100 day moving average (the Dow ended below its 200 day moving average) and its former all-time high. In addition, the Dow closed below the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend (I know it is a bit confusing for the lower boundary of an intermediate uptrend to be above the lower boundary of a short term uptrend. But it is a function of differing rates of ascension between the two going back to mid-2011); while the S&P ended below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend. I posed the question in last week's Closing Bell: do the bears now have the juice to push the Averages below those strong support levels (100 day moving averages)? This time the answer appears to be, yes.

    Longer term, we now have two challenges going on: (1) if the S&P remains below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend though the close on Wednesday, that trend will be negated, (2) if the Dow remains below the lower boundary of its intermediate term up trend through the close on Thursday, that trend will be negated. For the moment, the uptrends are: short term (17465-20271, 2058-3037), intermediate term (17665-23807, 1851-2619) and long term (5369-19175, 797-2138).

    Volume was off from Friday's Russell rebalancing session; but with that exception, it was the highest in the last 30 trading days. Breadth was poor, but not nearly as bad as I thought that it would be. The VIX soared 35%. Closing above its 100 day moving average and the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend. It is also nearing the upper boundary of its intermediate term downtrend.

    http://shortsideoflong.com/2015/06/checking-market-breadth/

    The long Treasury was up 2.5%---not surprising given its role as safe haven. However, it remains below its 100 day moving average and closed right on the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend.

    Somewhat surprisingly, GLD did almost nothing, remaining below its 100 day moving average and the neckline of the head and shoulders formation. Oil fell, remaining below the upper boundary of its short term trading range. The dollar fell, closing below its 100 day moving average and the lower boundary of a very short term downtrend.

    Bottom line: the indices are now challenging the lower boundaries of major uptrends as well as their 100 day moving averages---which have provide major support over the last two years. The key now is whether those trend breaks will be confirmed.

    Not helping matters are (1) Puerto Rico's governor stated that the island's debt was not payable and (2) continued turmoil in Chinese markets. On the other hand, the lack of any move up in gold prices or the dollar suggests that investors aren't running to the 'safe havens'.

    Finally remember that (1) significant global events can blow technical analysis out of the tub on a short term basis; that is one of the reasons for our time and distance discipline and (2) the Market was way oversold on the close last night. So again, follow through is key.

    Fundamental

    Headlines

    Yesterday's US economic data was weighed to the upside: May pending home sales rose more than forecast and while the June Dallas Fed manufacturing index was down, it was less than anticipated. Good for our forecast.

    Forget data dependent, the Fed is Market dependent (medium):

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102791653

    But not particularly relevant, given the increasing uncertainty surrounding events is Greece.

    Greece will default on IMF payment today (short):

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-29/greece-will-default-imf-tomorrow-government-official-says

    For an opinion, I defer to more knowledgeable experts than I:

    Mohamed El Erian on the Grexident (medium):

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-29/mohamed-el-erian-what-now-for-greece-

    David Stockman on the Grexident (medium):

    http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/good-on-you-alexis-tsipras-part-1/

    In the interest of 'fair and balanced' (medium):

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/06/referendum-and-greek-banks

    ***overnight, the Troika offered to consider debt rescheduling/forgiveness in exchange for Tsipras urging the Greeks to vote yes to accept the Troika's bail out proposal.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/06/30/uk-eurozone-greece-idUKKBN0P40FR20150630

    Bottom line: Markets got hit by a double whammy yesterday with the odds of a Grexit rising and the prospects of Puerto Rican default coming to the fore (***overnight, the governor confirmed that he would seek to delay some debt service). Add that to the dive in Chinese markets and investors were faced with a pretty stomach turning cocktail. Whether or not these factors precipitate a mean reverting move in the stock market is yet to be seen. Even if you think not, I believe that this is not a time for heroics.

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/20150629-hussman-funds-durable-returns-transient-returns

    ***overnight, the Chinese market continued to plunge while the Chinese government announced that it was considering allowing state pension plans to invest in stocks---yeah, that is going to end well.

    Investing for Survival

    Twelve reasons why the average investor loses money (medium):

    http://alephblog.com/2015/04/23/one-dozen-reasons-why-the-average-person-underperforms-in-investing-part-2/?curator=thereformedbroker&utm_source=thereformedbroker

    Company Highlight

    General Mills Inc. processes and markets such well known products as Cheerios, Wheaties, Total, Chex, Betty Crocker, Bisquick, Hamburger Helper, Yoplait and Progresso. The company has grown profits and dividends at a 9-10% pace over the last ten years earning a 20%+ return on equity. This performance should continue as a result of:

    (1) an outstanding portfolio of fast growing brands

    (2) a steady pipeline of new products which enhance sales and take market share,

    (3) an aggressive cost cutting program,

    (4) expansion into emerging markets which should account for 70% of food growth through 2012,

    (5) acquisitions,

    (6) management is committed to enhancing shareholder value via increasing dividends and share buy backs.

    Negatives:

    (1) GIS international exposure increases the risk of loss from currency fluctuation,

    (2) during periods of economic malaise, consumers tend to trade down to generic brands,

    (3) rising commodity costs,

    (4) softness in its yogurt and cereal businesses.

    GIS is rated A+ by Value Line, has a 58% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 3.1%

    Statistical Summary

    Stock Dividend Payout # Increases

    Yield Growth Rate Ratio Since 2005

    GIS 3.1% 6% 59% 10

    Ind Ave 2.2 7 42 NA

    Debt/ EPS Down Net Value Line

    Equity ROE Since 2005 Margin Rating

    GIS 58% 33% 1 10% A+

    Ind Ave 38 20 NA 8 NA

    Chart

    Note: GIS stock made great progress off its March 2009 low, surpassing the downtrend of its September 2008 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line). Long term, GIS is in an uptrend (blue lines); intermediate term, it is in an uptrend (purple lines). The wiggly red line is the 100 day moving average. The Dividend Growth Portfolio owns a 50% position in GIS, having Sold Half in early 2013. The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $32; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range in $45.

    (click to enlarge)

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GIS

    6/15

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

    Economics

    This Week's Data

    May pending home sales rose 0.9% versus expectations of up 0.6%.

    The June Dallas Fred manufacturing index came in at -7.0 versus estimates of -13.5.

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Dallas-Fed-Manufacturing-Survey

    Other

    Another proposed regulation from the administration that is sure to help employment (short):

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/30/usa-employment-overtime-idUSL1N0Z20RN20150630?feedType=RSS&feedName=governmentFilingsNews

    Politics

    Domestic

    International War Against Radical Islam

    The US and Russia now bumping heads in Syria (medium):

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-29/russia-promises-economic-and-military-aid-syria-us-refloats-assad-chemcial-weapons-t

    Jun 30 8:50 AM | Link | Comment!
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