Allan Harris

Long/short equity, newsletter provider, dynamic trend following, option tradnig
Allan Harris
Long/short equity, newsletter provider, Dynamic Trend Following, Option Tradnig
Contributor since: 2012
Company: AllanTrends
I highly recommend going over to YouTube and doing a "Christopher Hitchens" search. Beware, you will be absorbed for hours with the brilliance of this man, one of the great minds of a generation. If you prefer to read, "Hitch-22" is his autobiography and will provide great insight into his life and times.
Thank you for the plug for my trading service, but my comment was hardly meant as promotional. Pointing out a 47% drawdown in an XIV Buy&Hold strategy is certainly within the parameters of, "what can go wrong," perspectives that Seeking Alpha encourages in all of its articles.
A totally overlooked paradigm changing medical device company well on its way to becoming the standard of care for acute spinal cord injury.
The algorithm is based upon an average true range look-back calculation for a specified period of price bars, forming a dynamic trend line that identifies the dominant trend. The actual algorithm is proprietary.
XIV fell 47% from high to low in the 3rd quarter of 2014, then doubled into the June, 2015 high, from which it has defended 20% and counting. Who among us can live with that kind of volatility? In retrospect, we are all geniuses, but in the now we trade real money, in real time. Like every other "stock," timing in everything.
It's rare to have such a feel-good investment, that combines extraordinary profit potential with such a compassionate human element where we can see the faces of hope, smiling back right at us at their gofundme sites. Compare their courage and determination with our own, as we simply try to make a buck. Even so, there is a happy ending shaping up, the proverbial win-win. I've updated the NVIV trend chart over on my instablog, including a post-split updated Elliott Wave chart, suggesting a $27 target in the months ahead:
Excellent point. Making money in stocks can be a simple as looking at a chart, albeit for the about half the time you suggest, i.e. 5 seconds, not 10. Very few traders/investors understand this, very few traders/investors outperform the market averages, or have consistently positive returns at all. Not that those two observations are necessarily correlated...but they are.
"There is compelling evidence that the Nasdaq, and therefore the entire stock market, has or is in the process of putting in a massive multi-year price top and will be at least 20% lower between July and October of this year. The analysis is set out in this Long Term chart of the Nasdaq Composite. All of these pattern-recognition set-ups have been discussed before, they are all coming together in the current time period." - Weekend Update, March 14, 2015
A Top of Epic Proportions:
In a hundred years, the Seeking Alpha of the era will be referring to 2015 has the measure against which all insane market bubbles will be measured. No will even remember the significance of, 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000, or 2007.
A Top of Epic Proportions:
Why Friday Was Important:
Friday's decline was not enough to trigger an Intermediate Term Sell Signal, but market action has all of the earmarks of being in a transition to a new trend lower, one that will become entrenched as at a minimum an Intermediate Term down trend. It may also be beginning of Longer Term down trend into bona fide bear market measuring in months-to-years. See charts:
I've posted an updated NVIV chart on my Instablog:
The ratio of negative Tesla articles to positive articles on Seeking Alpha seems to be in the stratosphere. I stopped counting at 10-1 negative. I suspect the same negative bias would have surrounded Apple in the early 1990's, if Seeking Alpha was around back then. Everyone is an expert, that's why we are all so damn rich.
Apple and Tesla
sitting in a tree,
First comes love,
then comes marriage,
then comes baby
in an electric carriage!
Thanks everyone for contributing to the discussion and especially thanks for your kind words. I've gotten paid by Seeking Alpha for articles that had a lot less substance to them than this one, but apparently they drew a lot of views and qualified for SA payments-to-authors criteria. They can keep their money, I'd rather post what I want, not what they want.
The dragon isn't totally evil, they do allow for this public Instablog without editorial restrictions, and this will do just fine.
I don't know if anyone else is reading this blog or not, but for what it's worth, I submitted the above post to Seeking Alpha for publication and they returned it to me saying it was, "too bullish". This on a day when CTIX was up 35.62%. What's worse is some of the schlock they publish here from the more "name brand" analysts. Oh well, my guess is that if you are reading my stuff, I am preaching to the choir. Long CTIX since June, 2012 at 70c. Too bullish, indeed.
How a purely objective analysis?
Alan, the correct spelling of your first name is, "Allan." Don't worry, you're not alone, I've been running into it my whole life and am very grateful my parents got it right.
You run your trend line day-to-ay, or for shorter-term traders, hour-to-hour. You will NEVER get in at the absolute low tick and you will NEVER get out at the absolute HIGH tick. You WILL catch most of (80%+) of any normal trend. It's not perfect, and you WILL on occasion get whipsawed, 1, 2, maybe 3 small losses in a row. Then, you get into an extended trend and you not only make up for those small losses, you generate a substantial, outsized return. The epitome of "Keep your losses small, let your profits run." The idea is to make money, not try to impress yourself, or others, on how smart you at picking stocks. Easier said than done? Damn straight, look at your own skepticism. It took me 20 years to figure it out, but I've never looked back. 
Trading is a game of probabilities, not certainties. I cannot be certain of what price will do tomorrow, but I do know that the overwhelming probability is that price will do tomorrow what it did today, and will do next week what it did this past week. Once you understand and put that very basic probability assumption on your side, trading will never be the same. Making money in the market is a zero sum game, for every winner, there is a loser. You have it in your power to be one or the other, but it's not about ego, its about probability.
My short-term trading service bought the TWTR Dec $41 calls for $2.25 at 12:30 pm (EDT). They are currently trading at $3.40. This trade was based SOLELY on a trend algorithm.
Theo, I've been reading the Seeking Alpha articles on GPRO since it's IPO, virtually every one of them bearish since the $28 IPO price right through to your article (very well written by the way, right or wrong) today. As erroneous as those predictions were, the "Comments" on the articles were even more bearish. I haven't run the numbers yet, but it seems that about 90% of the total commentary on GPRO was negative, some extremely so. I've come to trade momentum and only momentum, it seems to get it right every time.

One of the few bullish articles on GPRO just before it's price soared, along with an overwhelming bearish consensus in the comments to the article. Kudos to the author!
Price momentum is a tough fade, there will be plenty of time to buy puts when the trend turns down:
Imagine if you were the cutting edge manufacturer of another, "high tech," innovation, seat belts - in 1965, three years before the U.S. Motor Vehicle Safety Standards made seat belts mandatory in all vehicles. You took your company public and it immediately ran up to what at that time seemed like an insane valuation. Three years later Congress passes a law that demonstrably saves thousands of lives a year. Now every car maker in the country (soon to be world) is knocking at your door.
Grossly oversimplified, but that's how I see well as grossly undervalued. As long as the stock price is rising, I wouldn't sweat traditional fundamental valuations or metrics. The investment here is in the future, and as we have all seen from the past, the future is inevitable.
I always trade the monthly calls, those that expire on the third Friday of each month. The simpler the strategy, the easier the system is to implement. Angst about what expiration and what strike price is unnecessary so long as your signals are working.
It's extremely rare for a signal to last more than 2 weeks, let alone 4-6 weeks. That's why I use "next month" ATM options. Generally the longer a trade, the more profitable as the trend is extending, so in any case where the system is holding a call or put into expiration, it's going to be extremely profitable.
As for the clarification on which strike price to buy, with VXX closing today at 27.40, if Long I would buy the Sep $27 calls and if Short I would be in the Sep $28 puts.
1. The members of my service will get the signal in real time, and I'll likely put up the updated chart, but delayed for a day or two, in the free public charts area of;

2. This one rule will make all of your short-term option trading a lot less complicated: Buy the At-The-Money option for the NEXT month. In other words, if a Buy signal were triggered today (Aug 25th) with VXX at 27.45, I would buy the Sep $27 calls.
VXX is on a Sell signal from August 11th. Although trading options on the Sells have been profitable, the REAL money will be made when (and if) the market goes through a 20% or more bear market. Outstanding gains from near-term calls will be made (been there, done that). We are treading water, but when the bears take control, the fireworks begin. Patience.
"I believe," that anonymous authors lack integrity, credibility and character. "It seems to us," that applauding a boorish coward reeks from the depravity of vacuous dolts. Go ahead, sue me, make my day .
It's not me, it's an Elliott Wave target projected through the mathematical relationship of the measured waves shown on the chart.