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APPL is an expensive stock and commensurate with the stock price are very expensive options. Those options are expensive for a reason. Nonetheless, buying at $20 and selling at $30 is no different than buying at $2.00 and selling at $3.00.

That is pretty much exactly what this trading model allowed us to do with it's most recent Buy signal] on April 23rd @ $407.80. The May $400 calls, which seemed very expensive at the time, went from $21.50 to $34 (as of Apr 29th) and unless and until AAPL generates a Sell signal before expiration, these calls can run much higher.

Disclosure: I am long [[AAPL]].

Additional disclosure: My subscribers are Long May 400 calls

The tax man's taken all my dough,
And left me in my stately home,
Lazing on a sunny afternoon.
And I can't sail my yacht,
He's taken everything I've got,
All I've got's this sunny afternoon.

Maybe the most poignant song ever....at least on this annual anniversary of altruism, i.e. April 15th. Tax filings and our faces are probably the two biggest constants in our lives, they just don't change. One can argue that our faces change, but that is more erosion than change.

My girlfriend's run off with my car,
And gone back to her ma and pa,
Telling tales of drunkenness and cruelty.
Now I'm sitting here,
Sipping at my ice cold beer,
Lazing on a sunny afternoon.

Why can't I be this guy? Drunk, cruel, a car worth stealing, a taste for beer? Ok, I have a relatively nice car, but I am not a drunk, I am the opposite of cruel and my drink of choice is a Manhattan, Jack, on the rocks. Nor have I ever done anything even remotely deserving my girlfriend running away from me to go back to her parents. (But how I have fantasized about it.)

Help me, help me, help me sail away,
Well give me two good reasons why I oughta stay.
'Cause I love to live so pleasantly,
Live this life of luxury,
Lazing on a sunny afternoon.
In the summertime
In the summertime
In the summertime

There is almost never a perfect time to do anything. But contemplate the idea, the possibilities, the dangers and the adventure, that shining moment of the, "sail away," daydream that we all have had, or maybe continue to have, or are haunted by having. Yes, there still may be an April 15th at the end of that rainbow, but so what?

A

POSTED: April 9, 2013

PUBLISHED IN: Market Analysis

COMMENTS: 0

FSLR is running fast and furious this morning on fundamental news. i.e. strong forward guidance by management. The Daily Trend Model will surely reverse LONG at the close today, but such huge percentage runs will usually give back half before resuming back up. No need to panic into it, although for consistency sake, the model portfolio will go long on today's close.

FSLR is one of the stocks we trade in the Premium Service. As with the hour PTS models, it is based on Hourly price bars instead of Daily price bars. Just after the Open this morning, FSLR Hourly triggered LONG. Our official entry on trade was $28.54. FSLR is currently trading at $37.30. The May $28 calls, purchased at about $2.20 at the time of the Buy signal, have traded as high as $12.75, so far.

Not all PTS (Premium Trading Service) trades do this well and you may be surprised to learn that some of them even miss. But for the extra monthly fee for this service, there are a whole lot of profits sitting out there waiting to be picked up. A subscriber sent me his spreadsheet yesterday showing a return of 158% for the past 12 months trading just NFLX stock, NO OPTIONS, all based on the Hourly Signals from the PTS.

Keeping these special Hourly Models takes a lot more of my time and a little more of your money to access, but it can be a win-win for both of us. But it takes two.

The Daily Stock Models are fine and as you can see in the Daily Trend Tables, there are a lot of very generous positive returns against much smaller negative returns on the individual stocks, so there is something here for everyone. But if you haven't considered the PTS, now would be a good time. If you don't like it, a full refund any time during the first month of your subscription.

As Bob Dylan wrote in one of his most lauded songs, "You got to serve somebody." It may as well be yourself.

Premium Trading Service Sign-Up

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TAGS: FSLR, LONG, PTS, trading

Disclosure: I am long [[FSLR]].

Additional disclosure: Long May $28 calls.

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As is shown above, The Obvious is Long after only a very short exit in February when price fell far enough to set off the fire alarm. By March 1st, the all clear was sounded and everyone was back on the bus.

Note how well The Obvious played this stock in the first half of 2012, exiting in February @ $35 and climbing back on the horse in June under $20. What turned out to be a false alarm in 2013 was the real deal in 2012. At those two yellow flags, we didn't know which one, if either, would be a prelude a 50% haircut in stock price and a commensurate erosion of built-up profits. Better safe than sorry comes to mind.

The Obvious: No matter how much you are in love with a stock, you cannot buy and hold and expect to make money, hang on to profits or sleep at night. To make money in the market you have to be on the right side of the trend, jump off the train when it derails and get back on when the whistle blows again.

Disclaimer: Metaphors are for illustrative purposes only.

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