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Allen Cooke  

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  • Brazilian Telecom Oi S.A.: A Good Value After The Recent Fall [View article]
    Looks like ok came in second for adds in the q2 possibly leading in post paid
    Aug 4, 2015. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oi SA down 6.1% on rack of Fitch debt downgrades [View news story]
    Fitch is 2 years late
    Jul 16, 2015. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oi SA down 6.1% on rack of Fitch debt downgrades [View news story]
    good job
    Jul 16, 2015. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oi SA down 6.1% on rack of Fitch debt downgrades [View news story]
    Fitch does not know what they are talking about. It is pretty clear that operationally the company turned around in 3rd Q 2014. 1st Q 2015 EBITDA exceeded 2014 Q1 by 12%+ so "financial profile continues to deteriorate" is not accurate. cell phoine subscriber ARPU also had a healthy jump. Oi is projecting 330-450 $USD free cash flow this year. We are on track for close to 600-700mm FCF for 2015. So if the bonds are fine, and the stock is trading at less than 3X company projections for FCF why downgrade now? The stock is worth $7 or 8 dollars. fitch is about 2 years late
    Jul 16, 2015. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazilian Telecom Oi S.A.: A Good Value After The Recent Fall [View article]
    excuse me, Cornelius I can see you were referring to leo re: staying clear at the earlier time
    Mar 4, 2015. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazilian Telecom Oi S.A.: A Good Value After The Recent Fall [View article]
    Normalized EBITDA for 2014 is closer to 6.9 b R$ if you add back in the FIFA world cup advertising and data providing expenses (and business slowdown). A large portion of the 2015 EBITDA increase comes from the benefit of MTR reduction. The company has indicated increased EBITDA and positive cash flow of 1.2-1.8b R$ for 2015; before financial expense and we believe financial expense will go down with the debt reductions. I think that they are indicating 7.5B R$ EBITDA for 2015, so we are over by 400mm R$. Hopefully they are being conservative. So we believe that Oi can become cash flow positive after financial expense in 2016. The company does not need to participate in spectrum auctions because they have a nationwide 4G license until 2024. We did not include the benefit, but did include the additional costs, for the 4th Q 2014 1.2B R$ tower sales leaseback transaction so we have some a little room for additional costs. Although combining with another company to reduce 4G build out would be great you are right it is hard to see how it could happen.
    Mar 4, 2015. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazilian Telecom Oi S.A.: A Good Value After The Recent Fall [View article]
    We hope the real can stabilize. It seems that it has a little recently
    Mar 4, 2015. 12:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazilian Telecom Oi S.A.: A Good Value After The Recent Fall [View article]
    This is my 1st article on Oi so probably Cornelius's (above) article he seemed to have a clear message to stay clear! I don't know about the board.
    Thx
    Mar 4, 2015. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazilian Telecom Oi S.A.: A Good Value After The Recent Fall [View article]
    Thanks I will read it. It did seem that investors considered it a bad deal
    Mar 4, 2015. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazilian Telecom Oi S.A.: A Good Value After The Recent Fall [View article]
    We will need to see the reorg plan for Rio, I got the sense that over 50 cents was achievable. If they got zero it would not be a catastrophe we did not add one of the recent tower sales of 1.2 b R$ into our estimate so we have a little room for errors. The company estimates its Africatel ownership about about 5B R$, We used 7X 2013 earnings. If it is not sold they will collect the dividends, which I believe are around 300-500m R$/ year. The EBITDA is mainly being propelled by interconnection costs reduction. and a return is closer to the historical average of 30%
    Mar 4, 2015. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazilian Telecom Oi S.A.: A Good Value After The Recent Fall [View article]
    the debt is up to 136 billion USD now ( as of 3rd Q 2014), 20b increase in the last 9 months, EBITDA should be heading lower, so PBR may have credit risk
    Mar 3, 2015. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazilian Telecom Oi S.A.: A Good Value After The Recent Fall [View article]
    The div is suspended and may remain that way for a few years
    Mar 3, 2015. 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazilian Telecom Oi S.A.: A Good Value After The Recent Fall [View article]
    we are assuming 60%
    Mar 3, 2015. 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazilian Telecom Oi S.A.: A Good Value After The Recent Fall [View article]
    Hi cmuzzio, please see the 1st table for our calculation of the net debt post the various asset sales. We calculate this to be about 19.5 billion R$ or about 2.9 X 2014 EBITDA and 2.4 X 2015 EBITDA
    Mar 3, 2015. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bearish On Coke [View article]
    Thought you made some good points. The earnings were not a beat by any measure and for anyone paying attention they were quite alarming. Operating income before any special items in the 2013 and 2014 4th Q were down 9.93%. This company can transition but the margins in most categories are lower than the historical KO margins so the future looks challenging. If you assign an optimistic 10X forward EBITDA or alternatively 12 or 13 X operating income or 17-18 X earnings you get a share price of 23-26/ share. The trajectory of the operating income of the company looks quite bad and KO is warning of a "transitional year" which means look out for poor results. KO is a company with a primary product in continuous decline and an entire worldwide company structured around the sale of that product. The biggest blow could come in the form of an exit by Warren B. He is not happy with the recent stock plans for management, which were characterized as greedy.
    Feb 11, 2015. 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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