Alpha Hunter

Long/short equity, value, special situations, contrarian
Alpha Hunter
Long/short equity, value, special situations, contrarian
Contributor since: 2014
not to mention the LNG plant approved that NCQ has stated will halve its capex...and the fairbanks office that Parnell approved that is devoted to the LNG AND the ambler mining road. so...
Even the Federal government was setting this in motion yesterday. When are you going to accept that this is happening?
This collection proposes to
provide data that will be used to
develop a legally-required
Environmental and Economic Analysis.
"Chair Pruhs welcomed Mr. Springsteen to AIDEA. He asked if a budget has been created for the
total of the $17 million. Mr. Leonard stated there is a budget, which includes an estimation of
forecasted expenses through the EIS and will provide that to the Board at the next meeting or
will email it to the Board. He believes it is approximately $42 million. Chair Pruhs requested a
running total be provided to the Board. Mr. Leonard stated a copy of the fiscal note that goes
with the capital appropriation can also be provided to the Board."
This collection proposes to
provide data that will be used to
develop a legally-required
Environmental and Economic Analysis.
Btw how is living out in Arizona?
So progress is a bad sign? Given there's only two commenters who feel strongly enough on the Internet and some random blog... Not too worried.
I don't really think that's a good comparison when the government has already put out an estimate at $400 million for a two lane paved road, and they're now scaling it down to a one lane dirt road. The per mile costs will obviously be different, as is clear by their estimates by both parties, so your back of an envelope speculation doesn't really make much sense to me, especially with clearly different costs. It's also clear Alaska has every intention of building this road, as I noted before with its many clear signals. Moreover, I'd disagree with the idea that Alaska is in a budget crisis, as it has one of the largest wealth funds in the world ( If anything, they will be looking for significant investments to keep their revenues high, as this project would clearly be a net positive for the state in taxes and other revenue. Moreover, the CEO is not holding his hand out but instead looking for a financing plan.
right right, two board members, twenty percent ownership, gigantic settlement, definitely consensus that they didn't have any influence on KMI at all. not to mention the fact that is conveniently massively beneficial to a near term seller.
But it advised them not to take an offer without warrants, and did advise them to take an offer with them.
I'm saying the -60% is the amount of money you lost relative to your disclosure eight months ago that you were long these warrants in your article hotshot. So I'm suggesting you might be wrong?
And again, you're arguing from a point of view that was found indefensible by the law, and even Goldman as they themselves agreed to a massive settlement. Sorry.
I guess Board Members don't count to you then... and I supposed one of the largest settlements of all time occurred by accident, despite what you believe is a clearly impeccable defense that Goldman itself saw it was so unlikely to win that it paid $110mm+$20mm in missed fees+legal fees.
Picking correct investments is a critical skill for investors. (Hint: a -60% return might tell you that you were wrong).
I see now.
Your comment should come with a disclaimer: "I pitched the warrants long eight months ago, and they have fallen 60% since." Best of luck to you.
Your ad hominem arguments are very weak. Not only is the logic that disparaging an industry means my argument is wrong terrible logic, but the logic that if I say one transaction was full of conflict of interests that I'm disparaging an industry is also foolish. If I point out a used car salesman sold a lemon then that isn't disparaging used car sales.
Perhaps you should do more reading yourself.
Because you're unlikely to actually read:
"The proposed merger was being touted to El Paso's investors as creating the nation's biggest empire of oil & gas pipelines. We found it more remarkable that El Paso had hired Goldman Sachs to advise its board of directors as to the financial fairness of the merger despite the fact that Goldman had a 19.1% ownership stake in the acquiror Kinder Morgan, and thus would directly benefit if Kinder Morgan bought El Paso on the cheap. On top of that, two of Goldman's managing directors were sitting on Kinder Morgan's board. Labaton Sucharow's client, who was an El Paso shareholder, shared our concern, so we promptly drafted and filed suit on their behalf. The suit sought to hold the directors of El Paso accountable for breaching their fiduciary duties to El Paso's shareholders, and asserted claims against Kinder Morgan and Goldman Sachs for aiding and abetting the board's dereliction of duty...the size of the settlement amount, which, while constituting a small percentage of the overall transaction, was, as the Chancellor noted, substantial in absolute terms, and was the largest recovered for shareholders in any Delaware merger transaction suit not involving a management-led buy-out. Of more long-lasting significance, Chancellor Strine's rebuke was heard across the financial and legal industries due to his scathing criticism of the motives and conduct of Goldman Sachs and El Paso's CEO."
Does that still seem correct to you? How much do I need to PayPal you to see whether you're defending your mistake made in one of your newsletters?
I'm not disparaging investment banking in any way. Just the actions of one specific group of individuals in a single transaction. The warrants will expire worthless because they are so dilutive that as a result, the stock will never rise above the strike price. Have you seen the $110 million settlement?
it would appear the stock market has begun to agree with me, rather than accept your flawed argument, as the stock is up 10% in 4 days.
Your logic falls on itself. "Road routes and cost estimates are hearsay until AIDEA formally submits an application for right-of-way that contains this information." Therefore, you cannot make the argument that this road will be expensive or go through towns until this has been submitted, therefore your argument that it goes through towns or is too expensive is clearly null. Apparently, if I don't have evidence you can't find then my argument is null, yet your fabricated information to support your argument is correct, which doesn't make much sense.
First, they had the half set to be placed with their three largest shareholders, Electrum, Baupost and Paulson, so that's what I was referring to. Second, I don't think they told them any material non-public information in the offering, so no. And they're still signed up to do it considering the prospectus has been filed. Third, I outlined the reasons that the stock price has declined and they are not fundamental. Saying that stock prices are indicators of performance is like saying that they're efficient. Really doesn't have any place in determining instrinsic value deviations (read some Buffet), and is just wrong. Fourth, your idea that they can't get financing is also plain wrong. They could entirely place the financing with those large shareholders for whom Novacopper is an extremely small position relative to their books. They just don't want to give them a majority stake so they themselves can negotiate a sale, as is clear in maintaining a pro-forma stake. Fifth, "when that happens is indeterminable" is also wrong, as Alaska has every incentive to move forward with the road. Finally, you're really making this out to be a critical point, when in all reality what has clearly happened is they were about to place the offering, then realized the Bornite deposit results were going to come in to be great. Then a suitor for a JV or sale approached them, and they're likely in negotiations. Again, I posit the point: if you were correct, what is the point in waiting? If they have no suitor they must raise money one way, equity. And their prospectus is filed. They're not waiting for the stock price fairy to increase their stock price. Sounds like you're a short, as 4% short interest outstanding is higher than some S&P 500 companies, so not sure how hard it is to borrow.
He served as "Senior Vice President for Phelps Dodge Corporation, a Fortune 500 company, responsible for the company’s global business development, acquisitions and divestments, including joint ventures, as well as its global exploration programs."
"The Board has determined that Mr. Madhavpeddi should serve as a director due to his many years of experience in the copper industry with a major producer and his knowledge of mergers and acquisitions." What else does that tell you?
I view the cancellation as a positive. They already had half of the offering placed in a private placement. Why would they make up an excuse? They have huge hedge funds supporting them, as I said, they're talking to certain other parties as seen in press releases. Holding out on an inevitable capital raise due to low stock prices with no coming catalyst... So they're expecting it randomly to go up? Hard to say "cash flow problems" when they obviously have no cash inflow since they're building a mine, by definition they need to raise cash. Perhaps expand your look beyond brief. Just the 100mm in NOLs alone could justify an acquisition. Look beyond the balance sheet to see the value instead of book value alone. I expect you'd get hurt on your short after they announce their JV or sale. Notice how every member on their board has been involved in a JV. Perhaps they'll be incentivized by their "fancy" stock awards to realize value.
see addition please
Hi all,
I've added an addition on the bottom of this article in order to address the approval concerns that some have voiced. Take a look! I think it addresses all the concerns mentioned.
Alpha Hunter
My point with the GS reference is that they owned a lot of KMI, and they knew they were going to sell. So they, definitely publicly, issued lots of out of the money warrants to pay for an acquisition today, then sold before the warrants could be used. And I agree at today's price not dilutive, so I'm not saying bad for KMI price today, hence covered call.
I believe the immense irony is lost on to the guy who commented below you.
Hi Arctic Ron,
Sorry you feel that way. However, I think you're overestimating these risks and your attack on my integrity is testament to your likely inability to find facts yourself and moreover, read up on this yourself. I've already addressed your road issue in other comments if you wanted to look, NovaGold's mine is not Novacopper, nor does it mention costs to the state that haven't been reclaimed in fines. To summarize, this 'little mine' actually contributes over one billion dollars in taxes in just one of its two mines. In addition, the mine drainage into a lake has not been mentioned as a worry by anyone I could see in my exhaustive research, and the state has already begun hiring more consultants for a environmental impact, again mentioned in other comments, thus implying that their results thus far are positive, and their response is positive. They even took out a new ad this week for another environmental consultant, meaning they expect even more progress. It's almost funny that in one sentence you say that the local NANA supports, it, but a couple farther villages and a single non-profit came out against the mine. Finally, the LNG plant would be a strong alternative to transporting diesel, which is clearly even farther away. If you disagree with all of this, then it's not I who you must think is libelous, but the CEO and the entire Novacopper company, which is a bit absurd. The CEO, whos job it is to calculate these costs said the LNG plant would cut energy costs in half. Your argument is he is a liar because 400 miles is a long distance, so that means chances are nil.
Your discussion is reminiscent of this article, in which this representative claims to speak for the people, yet she has lost her election to represent 'her' people.
A few who are angered speak out, yet some commenters and likely those who voted her out recognize that this will reduce the cost of living and create jobs for generations.
I urge you instead to recognize your ignorance before questioning my integrity. Keep that google news alert on novacopper on so you can continue to comment and feel like you're making a difference, and congrats on your first Seeking Alpha comment.
and really, this one is on El Paso board for hiring GS as an advisor. I don't fault GS for doing what makes good business sense
great to hear. Hopefully more will join us!
problem is, the pre-announced share issuance could mean that when they do the share issuance, the stock is worth $45 but they're selling for $40 or something similar.
Finally, check the PEA, page 22-8. NCQ will pay nearly $1bn in taxes, in addition to that $150 billion. The state of alaska stands to gain $700 million even under your large road cost assumption. $700 in the first mine alone, not to mention Bornite, income taxes, etc. And the LNG plant will have access to the road, creating cheaper energy for those in the area.
"Van Nieuwenhuyse said the impact a road could have on caribou, the primary subsistence resource in the region, needs to be studied further. He added that NovaCopper’s work is gaining traction among the residents in the potential corridor because of the prospect of well-paying jobs and access to lower-cost fuel provided by the road."