Seeking Alpha

Alpha Hunter

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Alpha Hunter's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    Btw how is living out in Arizona?
    May 15 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    So progress is a bad sign? Given there's only two commenters who feel strongly enough on the Internet and some random blog... Not too worried.
    May 15 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    I don't really think that's a good comparison when the government has already put out an estimate at $400 million for a two lane paved road, and they're now scaling it down to a one lane dirt road. The per mile costs will obviously be different, as is clear by their estimates by both parties, so your back of an envelope speculation doesn't really make much sense to me, especially with clearly different costs. It's also clear Alaska has every intention of building this road, as I noted before with its many clear signals. Moreover, I'd disagree with the idea that Alaska is in a budget crisis, as it has one of the largest wealth funds in the world (http://bit.ly/1gBshTL). If anything, they will be looking for significant investments to keep their revenues high, as this project would clearly be a net positive for the state in taxes and other revenue. Moreover, the CEO is not holding his hand out but instead looking for a financing plan.
    May 13 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Warrants: Trash Courtesy Of Goldman Sachs [View article]
    right right, two board members, twenty percent ownership, gigantic settlement, definitely consensus that they didn't have any influence on KMI at all. not to mention the fact that is conveniently massively beneficial to a near term seller.
    May 13 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Warrants: Trash Courtesy Of Goldman Sachs [View article]
    But it advised them not to take an offer without warrants, and did advise them to take an offer with them.
    May 13 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Warrants: Trash Courtesy Of Goldman Sachs [View article]
    I'm saying the -60% is the amount of money you lost relative to your disclosure eight months ago that you were long these warrants in your article hotshot. So I'm suggesting you might be wrong?

    And again, you're arguing from a point of view that was found indefensible by the law, and even Goldman as they themselves agreed to a massive settlement. Sorry.
    May 13 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Warrants: Trash Courtesy Of Goldman Sachs [View article]
    I guess Board Members don't count to you then... and I supposed one of the largest settlements of all time occurred by accident, despite what you believe is a clearly impeccable defense that Goldman itself saw it was so unlikely to win that it paid $110mm+$20mm in missed fees+legal fees.

    Picking correct investments is a critical skill for investors. (Hint: a -60% return might tell you that you were wrong).
    May 13 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Warrants: Trash Courtesy Of Goldman Sachs [View article]
    I see now. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Your comment should come with a disclaimer: "I pitched the warrants long eight months ago, and they have fallen 60% since." Best of luck to you.
    May 12 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Warrants: Trash Courtesy Of Goldman Sachs [View article]
    Your ad hominem arguments are very weak. Not only is the logic that disparaging an industry means my argument is wrong terrible logic, but the logic that if I say one transaction was full of conflict of interests that I'm disparaging an industry is also foolish. If I point out a used car salesman sold a lemon then that isn't disparaging used car sales.

    Perhaps you should do more reading yourself.
    http://bit.ly/1iM6UDt
    Because you're unlikely to actually read:
    "The proposed merger was being touted to El Paso's investors as creating the nation's biggest empire of oil & gas pipelines. We found it more remarkable that El Paso had hired Goldman Sachs to advise its board of directors as to the financial fairness of the merger despite the fact that Goldman had a 19.1% ownership stake in the acquiror Kinder Morgan, and thus would directly benefit if Kinder Morgan bought El Paso on the cheap. On top of that, two of Goldman's managing directors were sitting on Kinder Morgan's board. Labaton Sucharow's client, who was an El Paso shareholder, shared our concern, so we promptly drafted and filed suit on their behalf. The suit sought to hold the directors of El Paso accountable for breaching their fiduciary duties to El Paso's shareholders, and asserted claims against Kinder Morgan and Goldman Sachs for aiding and abetting the board's dereliction of duty...the size of the settlement amount, which, while constituting a small percentage of the overall transaction, was, as the Chancellor noted, substantial in absolute terms, and was the largest recovered for shareholders in any Delaware merger transaction suit not involving a management-led buy-out. Of more long-lasting significance, Chancellor Strine's rebuke was heard across the financial and legal industries due to his scathing criticism of the motives and conduct of Goldman Sachs and El Paso's CEO."

    Does that still seem correct to you? How much do I need to PayPal you to see whether you're defending your mistake made in one of your newsletters?
    May 12 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Warrants: Trash Courtesy Of Goldman Sachs [View article]
    I'm not disparaging investment banking in any way. Just the actions of one specific group of individuals in a single transaction. The warrants will expire worthless because they are so dilutive that as a result, the stock will never rise above the strike price. Have you seen the $110 million settlement?

    http://bloom.bg/1oJKhjD
    May 12 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    it would appear the stock market has begun to agree with me, rather than accept your flawed argument, as the stock is up 10% in 4 days.
    May 12 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    Your logic falls on itself. "Road routes and cost estimates are hearsay until AIDEA formally submits an application for right-of-way that contains this information." Therefore, you cannot make the argument that this road will be expensive or go through towns until this has been submitted, therefore your argument that it goes through towns or is too expensive is clearly null. Apparently, if I don't have evidence you can't find then my argument is null, yet your fabricated information to support your argument is correct, which doesn't make much sense.
    May 12 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    First, they had the half set to be placed with their three largest shareholders, Electrum, Baupost and Paulson, so that's what I was referring to. Second, I don't think they told them any material non-public information in the offering, so no. And they're still signed up to do it considering the prospectus has been filed. Third, I outlined the reasons that the stock price has declined and they are not fundamental. Saying that stock prices are indicators of performance is like saying that they're efficient. Really doesn't have any place in determining instrinsic value deviations (read some Buffet), and is just wrong. Fourth, your idea that they can't get financing is also plain wrong. They could entirely place the financing with those large shareholders for whom Novacopper is an extremely small position relative to their books. They just don't want to give them a majority stake so they themselves can negotiate a sale, as is clear in maintaining a pro-forma stake. Fifth, "when that happens is indeterminable" is also wrong, as Alaska has every incentive to move forward with the road. Finally, you're really making this out to be a critical point, when in all reality what has clearly happened is they were about to place the offering, then realized the Bornite deposit results were going to come in to be great. Then a suitor for a JV or sale approached them, and they're likely in negotiations. Again, I posit the point: if you were correct, what is the point in waiting? If they have no suitor they must raise money one way, equity. And their prospectus is filed. They're not waiting for the stock price fairy to increase their stock price. Sounds like you're a short, as 4% short interest outstanding is higher than some S&P 500 companies, so not sure how hard it is to borrow.
    May 8 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    He served as "Senior Vice President for Phelps Dodge Corporation, a Fortune 500 company, responsible for the company’s global business development, acquisitions and divestments, including joint ventures, as well as its global exploration programs."
    May 8 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    "The Board has determined that Mr. Madhavpeddi should serve as a director due to his many years of experience in the copper industry with a major producer and his knowledge of mergers and acquisitions." What else does that tell you?
    May 8 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
46 Comments
33 Likes