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Alpha Hunter

 
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  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    it would appear the stock market has begun to agree with me, rather than accept your flawed argument, as the stock is up 10% in 4 days.
    May 12, 2014. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    Your logic falls on itself. "Road routes and cost estimates are hearsay until AIDEA formally submits an application for right-of-way that contains this information." Therefore, you cannot make the argument that this road will be expensive or go through towns until this has been submitted, therefore your argument that it goes through towns or is too expensive is clearly null. Apparently, if I don't have evidence you can't find then my argument is null, yet your fabricated information to support your argument is correct, which doesn't make much sense.
    May 12, 2014. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    First, they had the half set to be placed with their three largest shareholders, Electrum, Baupost and Paulson, so that's what I was referring to. Second, I don't think they told them any material non-public information in the offering, so no. And they're still signed up to do it considering the prospectus has been filed. Third, I outlined the reasons that the stock price has declined and they are not fundamental. Saying that stock prices are indicators of performance is like saying that they're efficient. Really doesn't have any place in determining instrinsic value deviations (read some Buffet), and is just wrong. Fourth, your idea that they can't get financing is also plain wrong. They could entirely place the financing with those large shareholders for whom Novacopper is an extremely small position relative to their books. They just don't want to give them a majority stake so they themselves can negotiate a sale, as is clear in maintaining a pro-forma stake. Fifth, "when that happens is indeterminable" is also wrong, as Alaska has every incentive to move forward with the road. Finally, you're really making this out to be a critical point, when in all reality what has clearly happened is they were about to place the offering, then realized the Bornite deposit results were going to come in to be great. Then a suitor for a JV or sale approached them, and they're likely in negotiations. Again, I posit the point: if you were correct, what is the point in waiting? If they have no suitor they must raise money one way, equity. And their prospectus is filed. They're not waiting for the stock price fairy to increase their stock price. Sounds like you're a short, as 4% short interest outstanding is higher than some S&P 500 companies, so not sure how hard it is to borrow.
    May 8, 2014. 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    He served as "Senior Vice President for Phelps Dodge Corporation, a Fortune 500 company, responsible for the company’s global business development, acquisitions and divestments, including joint ventures, as well as its global exploration programs."
    May 8, 2014. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    "The Board has determined that Mr. Madhavpeddi should serve as a director due to his many years of experience in the copper industry with a major producer and his knowledge of mergers and acquisitions." What else does that tell you?
    May 8, 2014. 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    I view the cancellation as a positive. They already had half of the offering placed in a private placement. Why would they make up an excuse? They have huge hedge funds supporting them, as I said, they're talking to certain other parties as seen in press releases. Holding out on an inevitable capital raise due to low stock prices with no coming catalyst... So they're expecting it randomly to go up? Hard to say "cash flow problems" when they obviously have no cash inflow since they're building a mine, by definition they need to raise cash. Perhaps expand your look beyond brief. Just the 100mm in NOLs alone could justify an acquisition. Look beyond the balance sheet to see the value instead of book value alone. I expect you'd get hurt on your short after they announce their JV or sale. Notice how every member on their board has been involved in a JV. Perhaps they'll be incentivized by their "fancy" stock awards to realize value.
    May 8, 2014. 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    see addition please
    May 7, 2014. 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    Hi all,

    I've added an addition on the bottom of this article in order to address the approval concerns that some have voiced. Take a look! I think it addresses all the concerns mentioned.

    Best,
    Alpha Hunter
    May 7, 2014. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Warrants: Trash Courtesy Of Goldman Sachs [View article]
    My point with the GS reference is that they owned a lot of KMI, and they knew they were going to sell. So they, definitely publicly, issued lots of out of the money warrants to pay for an acquisition today, then sold before the warrants could be used. And I agree at today's price not dilutive, so I'm not saying bad for KMI price today, hence covered call.
    May 7, 2014. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    I believe the immense irony is lost on to the guy who commented below you.
    May 7, 2014. 03:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    Hi Arctic Ron,

    Sorry you feel that way. However, I think you're overestimating these risks and your attack on my integrity is testament to your likely inability to find facts yourself and moreover, read up on this yourself. I've already addressed your road issue in other comments if you wanted to look, NovaGold's mine is not Novacopper, nor does it mention costs to the state that haven't been reclaimed in fines. To summarize, this 'little mine' actually contributes over one billion dollars in taxes in just one of its two mines. In addition, the mine drainage into a lake has not been mentioned as a worry by anyone I could see in my exhaustive research, and the state has already begun hiring more consultants for a environmental impact, again mentioned in other comments, thus implying that their results thus far are positive, and their response is positive. They even took out a new ad this week for another environmental consultant, meaning they expect even more progress. It's almost funny that in one sentence you say that the local NANA supports, it, but a couple farther villages and a single non-profit came out against the mine. Finally, the LNG plant would be a strong alternative to transporting diesel, which is clearly even farther away. If you disagree with all of this, then it's not I who you must think is libelous, but the CEO and the entire Novacopper company, which is a bit absurd. The CEO, whos job it is to calculate these costs said the LNG plant would cut energy costs in half. Your argument is he is a liar because 400 miles is a long distance, so that means chances are nil.

    Your discussion is reminiscent of this article, in which this representative claims to speak for the people, yet she has lost her election to represent 'her' people. http://bit.ly/1s1O63Z
    A few who are angered speak out, yet some commenters and likely those who voted her out recognize that this will reduce the cost of living and create jobs for generations.

    I urge you instead to recognize your ignorance before questioning my integrity. Keep that google news alert on novacopper on so you can continue to comment and feel like you're making a difference, and congrats on your first Seeking Alpha comment.
    May 7, 2014. 03:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Warrants: Trash Courtesy Of Goldman Sachs [View article]
    and really, this one is on El Paso board for hiring GS as an advisor. I don't fault GS for doing what makes good business sense
    May 6, 2014. 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    great to hear. Hopefully more will join us!
    May 6, 2014. 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Warrants: Trash Courtesy Of Goldman Sachs [View article]
    problem is, the pre-announced share issuance could mean that when they do the share issuance, the stock is worth $45 but they're selling for $40 or something similar.
    May 6, 2014. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    Finally, check the PEA, page 22-8. NCQ will pay nearly $1bn in taxes, in addition to that $150 billion. The state of alaska stands to gain $700 million even under your large road cost assumption. $700 in the first mine alone, not to mention Bornite, income taxes, etc. And the LNG plant will have access to the road, creating cheaper energy for those in the area.
    May 6, 2014. 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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