Value, special situations
Value, special situations
Contributor since: 2013
You compare $HEES 's fall with that of $URI. I do share your premise of value in both.
In my assessment I would have more comfort initiating a position in $URI based on its relative stability of its past EPS both long term (5yr $URI 48.2% vs $HEES 0.6%) and short term $URI 41.7% vs $HEES 7.5% Q/Q). (source Finviz).
Further, it appears to me that the smaller fall of $URI is on a considerably larger volume (avg 2.62M $URI vs 0.594M $HEES). This is significant. It indicates that it is being held in stronger hands and hence a more stable holding. I own neither but I am considering $URI.
These are just my views and not meant as recommendations.
Thank you for sharing your views.
Bret- Well done.
Thank for your article and perspective.
While the two have seen similar price action there a so many differences that we should not overlook. Many come to mind. Below is one example that hopefully will help show the complexity of this.
The majority of $RAD sales are driven by Rx sales/services and are paid by third parties (insurance/govt). Not only does $RAD not control the menu, (prescribers write Rx -menu) they compete with payers such as $CVS and others for the same revenue stream. Further, the payers often decide whether or not they will pay for any menu item via controlled formularies. One may wish to compare this to $WEN.
One may wish also to look at distribution and breadth of competition.
I can't help but agree that in any service business, service must be viewed as its core.
Your points are well taken in this well written summary.
The $CVS profit model, as you outline, should over time offset
many of the competitive pressures and tobacco elimination losses
that may ensue.
@ beaters and Alan;
Good article and comment.
I think we should also keep in mind when using LIFO/FIFO not just inflation but also the current impact of generics. They are acquired at much lower costs can substantially effect inventory value. Also note switching brands has some indirect effect on inventory value (not related to LIFO and FIFO) that is more difficult to quantify.
As you have noted this effect on inventory valuation definitely has an effect on COGS and thus earnings.
I must agree fundamentally for the long term, though, I hold no position at this time.
It appears to me, that technically, we are in a short term transition.
We'll very soon see if the direction will turn upward or continue the current bias.
I very much appreciate your views and review of this stock.
@QTRaven Well Done.
Can this downward push be sustained?
Look at ADX, RSI, STOCH -down trend is abating with price approaching lower limit of Starc- and BBand. Look at the volume that was required to hold it back on Friday. Assess the pre-market rise in volume and price and the volume required to reverse it. Can this continue? Look at last 5 X 1 min of trade -price is well above regression line and with a volume that is many times the 50 bar average.
You 're on target here. Near term target is $ 11.20 and long term well north of $ 15. Let's thank the bears for this opportunity! Long $BBRY.
Thank you for providing this well written overview of current retailing and distribution in India.
I have now a better appreciation of the challenges that exist not just for $WMT but also for other retailers, consumers and government.
You present many valid points with useable techniques.
I very much appreciate it !
Always a pleasure to read your insights.
To provide clarity to you point (re: “Not that $GS is always right” ), what is worth noting on April 14/2013 their target was $ 2.60 with a neutral rating which I understand they had changed from $ 1.75 nine days prior. (
Sadly, as you state, many have been negative on $RAD.
As you know this has not been my position.
It is encouraging to see that there is some acknowledgement of $RAD's worth, here. We have risen considerably in the past year, however. A pause is plausible to me.
With regard to your view on technical indicators I choose to use any tool that helps my ability to perceive. To use your analogy of reflections: when driving forward I still prefer my rear and side view mirrors as well as glancing back to determine my position relative to others on the road. This is especially so if I need to change lanes. I know I have some blind spots.
I know this is much debated and is just my view.
Thank you for the comment.
While I do see your point wrt the apparent consolidation in the past few weeks, you may wish
to review the following:
1) On Feb. 3/14 $RAD closed at $5.33 and hit a high of $ 6.87
on Feb. 21/14 -hard for us to view this ~ 29% rise as consolidation.
2) In the past 2 months only 7 days were above 50 days average volume (two of these were yesterday and today after the announcement by $GS)

3) Yesterday's $ GS statement evoked a volume that, although high, was not even close to the ytd highest nor close to the highest in Feb. volume - something we should have expected in view of such a high profile announcement.
4) Using near term data your price is well above both +starc band & upper BB. (I'm not sure of your target wrt time frame).
As such I do not believe the current volume can continue to support the recent ~29 % growth rate nor the resistance target that you suggest for the near term.
Thanks for the comment.
As stated in the article it appears to me we are approaching a top
in the near term. Although, not discussed in detail, I do see some volatility.
I am not clear on your question about cost averaging with regards to options.
Thank you for your comment.
A well written article.
Thanks for sharing your perspective.
Interesting approach.
Absolutely, and -
Let's not forget the Canadian ones !
Can you please explain your point vis a vis $FB ensuring their market (especially with BBM directly challenging a portion of $FB).
@ A11 Extremely valid point!
The most critical part - 21% MUST BUY. = High Demand
Not hard to understand - Pushing it down in articles and comments to buy it for less , or maybe free!
So many spins - Time to get over it - High Demand is real
$ BBRY momentum is UP UP UP UP UP
Your strategy (long calls) has merit
since patient is STABLE - to use your analogy !
Patient must be about to thrive or why would you chance it at all?
Best Wishes on this!
The so remote Palm analogy again -really?
What a stretch !
Why not use the Sybase analogy which share the same CEO?
Blackberry is here to stay.
$ 23 Resistance $BBRY !
Well written analysis & must concur with most.
It is NOT easy however, for me to dismiss your analogy of the "ghost" ship in "the ghost of its legendary founder " nor the inference to the wrong color for $BBRY. Not that complacency is positive. It is not.
The Steadfastness of purpose vs "obstinacy" must be differentiated. The innovations brought forth, emanated from their firmness and perseverance when they had anticipated needs.
It is their "SPIRIT" that still lives on. Hopefully, it thrives in their "progeny" bringing more innovations vs complacency.
They have truly changed the world.
Failure for us to acknowledge these facts may not be a wise investment strategy and may result in missed opportunities as you have noted.
Thank you for your hard work. I very much enjoyed your writing.
Excellent points!
Re: trend;
While ignoring this reality will work against you; it would seem reasonable to ask why one would choose to ignore or act diminish any of these or other facts.
Good comment.
Your points are well taken.
$BB 's management has clearly not been up to the challenge to maintain the image deserved of their offerings which I am reading into your comments. Nor has management served well its supporters, workers and customers (old products, "abandoning" playbook, employee terminations etc) under the barrage of negativism wherein even positive announcement are terminated by a negative slant.
This has resulted in significant loss and gain by many. It is important to separate offerings, value, image etc. and investment action.
Value still exits in its quality products and services. Has investors
determining how to do so effectively becomes our challenge or opportunity.
Sending down an entity for whatever reasons because one can seems improper. This my perspective.
I do not take the change in management lightly. Whether the damage to their image is too great remains to be seen when one considers the recent BBM introduction. In the marketplace it seem by this memories are short.
Your articles and comments are appreciated. Thanks for sharing.
@dfedak your points have merit.
Any thoughts on shorts unwinding in addition to the complex nature such a takeover? It looks like this is just the tip of the iceberg and just
the beginning to me.
@LYogi with you
Value in this company exists and will be realized.
When it comes down to it, who is prepared to let it be stolen away for such a low ball bid? Let's see happens when they open up.
Let the bidding begin........
Hard to rule out that a run again at US might not be preceded by an attempt at a stronger presence Ontario (resolving as well their concentration concern in Quebec).
Two strong private labels are now in the hands essentially of the same company in Loblaw-Shoppers. It is too early to tell how this will unfold and may prove a positive for $PJC.
Good thoughts again Chris!
Some of us know this is just the start
of the value to be realized
far far far north of 9.
I'm in agreement with you on this even though I'm long $BB.
How can anyone negotiate from such a position and expect to optimize any value they may have. This may be in part the reason for their current state of affairs.
Thanks for your thoughts
Let the bidding begin!
How is this new ?
Why not consider fact $BB still lives.
This is as much a wish as it is that $BB is worth the moon.
Inescapable fact value exists and will be realized.
What NEW light does this article shed for positioning short or long?
Your thesis of recovery "benefiting from two major trends" may have some merit. However, it is important to refer reader to review more closely both the recent report and earnings call.
Without this detail, this, in my view may not do the justice this company truly deserves. It clearly has an uphill battle against MANY very strong competitors. Management is performing very well and rising up to its challenges with grace and not denying the road ahead (as per earnings call). I'm not sure if this is what you intended.
The risk is in their continuing performance and your "cautiously optimistic" view may so be justified.
From all this said and based on current results the momentum is well within reason and not "insane" as you state. With this ongoing very good performance I look for more growth in value.

Thanks for sharing.
This is my view and neither recommendation nor advise.
I'm long $RAD
Bret - I enjoy your succinct observations.
I agree with you on $WRES with different target.
I hold neither but may initiate on $WRES that I've been trading.
Thank You
@Loon -
Follow the money. Your answer will be clear.
Sadly so