The top 100 stock
market authors
selected for publication
market authors
selected for publication
»
Comments
|
You are currently following Alphameister
Stop FollowingYou are no longer following Alphameister
-
849
)
Sort by:
Latest | Highest ratedChinese Wind Power Plant Coming to U.S. Soil [View article]
Our Steroid Pumped Economy [View article]
Michelangelo loved sculpture because it involved cutting away useless material in order to set free the work of art contained within that material. One of his more famous sculptures, Madonna of the Stairs, was a work of bas relief, created in his teens. Bas relief involves cutting away the background so that the resulting subject of the artwork stands out from a recessed background. U.S. coins are a classic example. With coins, "low relief" is desired where the subject art is lower than the edge of the coin. If the bas relief is "high relief", as was the case with the badly designed buffalo nickel, the date and image are steadily eroded over time.
But I digress. The point of this comment is to suggest that 1)Bernanke was wrong in denying the existence of bubbles in US markets, that 2) he realizes he was wrong, that 3) he is deliberately promoting asset bubbles in the US, and that 4) he can get away with it only because most such bubbles are "bas relief" at this time.
Does it seem ludicrous to talk of bubbles in the US housing and stock markets when both are well below former highs? Well, if a bubble is defined as artificially boosted prices well above the levels that would be determined by supply and demand in the absence of such artificial stimulus, then it is not unreasonable to see a bubble in a host of US markets, starting with housing, treasuries and commodities and including, as well, stock prices that imply a future growth rate that is totally unrealistic given extant obstacles to future economic growth. When the only meaningful market for housing mortgages is Uncle Sam, you can be sure that house prices are artificially inflated and thus in a bubble.
For a disciplined trader, the more bubbles the merrier. If you use the right technical disciplines, there will either be a greater fool willing to let you exit your fundamentally unsound position with a profit or you can disengage with only a modest loss as some trendline is broken. For an investor, the greater-fool school of investing tends to be more problematical. I left a lot of money on the table in 1999-2000 by seeing the tech bubble too clearly and too early. But the retail stocks, such as Chicos and Christopher & Banks into which I switched when my tech stocks got silly, enabled me to sail through the tech crash of 2000-2002. I've left a lot of money on the table in 2009 by hedging my longs since August. Today, I'm net short the US and net long on China where I see a much better reward-risk ratio. Even many bulls on CNBC these days are admitting their advice is all about respecting momentum without regard to fundamentals.
U.S. and China: Lecturing Each Other on Trade [View article]
China’s Foreign Direct Investment on the Rise [View article]
Chinese Wind Power Maker A-Power to Set Up Factory in U.S. [View article]
Is This the Beginning of a New Secular Bull Market? [View article]
China's Domestic Market Still Heating Up [View article]
Why Is China Booming? Surprise, It’s Not the Stimulus [View article]
Chance of a Depression Now 5 Percent [View article]
But that is not the Marxist/Socialist Obama Plan. <<
Liked your comment and gave you a thumbs up. I'm afraid, though, that the mirror to which you refer is a rear-view mirror. When today's America looks in the mirror, it sees a need for cosmetic surgery!
If This Is a Recovery... [View article]
The Medicare program is equally flawed and irresponsible. Nothing has been more devastating to the black community than the "war on poverty." The road to hell is indeed paved with good intentions (though it is difficult to credit economic stupidity behind such good intentions when a cynic might easily see the protestations of such good intentions as merely an effective path to power and all the perquisites of power).
Warren Harding took a very provocative, "simplistic" approach to the depression he inherited in 1921. He slashed government spending and taxes. Within two years, the country was back to full employment and embarking on a boom that would end badly (giving Hoover and FDR a chance to work their mischief; neither had learned anything from Harding's success). Does anyone see a willingness in today's capital to learn from Harding's success?
Both the above article and comments make no mention of the current political leaders' determination to impose heavy new taxation (indirect or direct) in the form of health-care "reform" and cap-and-tax legislation. Any business owner/manager worried about the effects of such legislation on their profitability will be very slow to add workers in this "brave new world."
Does anyone believe that a younger generation steeped in the politics of entitlement and increasingly divorced from any commitment to excellence of performance as the path to success will accept graciously the obligations being foisted on them by the irresponsibility of their elders? We are heading toward a revolt, and I'm afraid it's a revolt that is long overdue.
If This Is a Recovery... [View article]
You talk about fiscal stimulus coming to an end in 2011, but I see an almost certain succession of stimulus programs as politicos strive to thwart the most depressionary forces since the Thirties. The recent extension of unemployment benefits and the housing tax credit (the latter certain to show diminishing returns) are a good indication of the desperate patchwork fixes to be seen as we try to stave off the inevitable severe adjustments needed to become a viable economy once more.
The U.S. is not headed for a typical post-war economic recovery, and the bull market of the past eight months is on very fragile ground.
Two More Myths About Business in China [View article]
Exchange Rate Manipulation: Beggar My Neighbor, Or Myself? [View article]
On Nov 13 04:31 AM Maxe Paul wrote:
> Here in Australia we have hard assets such as commodities, and a
> strong banking system. This gives us a strong dollar.
>
> What has America got to justify a strong dollar?
China's Recovering Export Sector: Less than Meets the Eye [View article]
7 Steps Towards Real Free Market Capitalism [View article]