Alphameister

Is This the Beginning of a New Secular Bull Market?

Very shallow and disappointing article. An ignorant statistician might compare the current rally to the average rallies of the past hundred years and draw bullish conclusions from such an exercise. A perceptive analyst would be more inclined to compare this rally to the 1938 market rally and explain why he's convinced things will be substantially different this time around. Even if the lows have been seen in March (as I deem likely), this is a cyclical bull in a secular bear market and the accompanying economic cycle is on very shaky ground.

Low Home Ownership Rate Hurting the Economy

Excellent article. I share your conclusions. Just because new homes today are pre-sold does not alter the picture regarding inventories. Without the newly constructed house, an existing home would be purchased and taken off the market. As for the comment by Steve Owen, somebody living under a bridge or moving in with mom and dad is not a household; in the latter situation, they are adding to the size of an existing household. The author's illustration of the effect of this phenomenon seems far too modest to me. I'd expect the size of the average household to rise by a lot more than a tenth of a person in the next few years. Also in need of consideration is the number of second homes being added to inventories.

I've been wondering to what extent retail sales have been boosted artificially by those who choose to discontinue payments on their mortgages and live rent-free until eviction (also a very lengthy process) and thus find themselves able to afford discretionary expenditures that would otherwise be out of reach. Is anyone familiar with an attempt to quantify such phenomenon?