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Amanda Blitzdorf  

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  • Why I'm Lightening Up on Stocks for Good [View article]
    Any portfolio allocation strategies will not only consider conclusions out of decades of historical data, but also current phase of market development. Why? History based analysis is more static, not very useful for forecasting purposes, much less for portfolio strategies. We are in a cyclical bull market embedded in a huge secular bear market. We may still have some small legs to run for bulls before major a drop in early fall. That said, I don't agree to "lightening ... for good". It will be more prudent to make appropriate portfolio adjustment during different phases of market cycles.
    Jul 16, 2011. 05:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Half Year Report Card [View article]
    Keeping the macro trend in mind, it will depend on the incoming earnings report cards. It is more likely than ever that investors will be sucked in current rally starting from 200 day simple moving average of S&P 500, only setting them up for another big drop. I'd agree we will see the secular bear market in full force after the rally runs out of steam.
    Jul 4, 2011. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch the 1,250 Area of S&P 500 as the Fed Abandons U.S. Stocks [View article]
    Hi Jon,

    You made nice call of "Epic Bear Market" on September 20, 2007. People who followed your call had made tons of money by getting out of long positions and aggressively going short.

    Now the pattern is forming, which seems the repeat of summer of 2007 (my blog on our site). Bulls who believe the relieve rally could be trapped in gigantic peak, while smart money sees that as the last window to unload positions.

    What are the key drivers to this formation? You count them. Dire unemployment situation, stagnant housing market, shrinking real American income, and of course, the halt of printing money by the Fed. Greek issues will constantly serve as some background noise. The last and the most important one is that you may see the very first earnings deterioration across the board in the coming July.

    Technically March 16 low and 200 Day Simple Moving Average are the major support levels. These are in striking distance of current price and could be taken out in one major blow (or gap actions).
    Jun 20, 2011. 11:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Comes the Summer Rally [View article]
    The only reason that reignited the rally last August was Fed's QE2. Well, you may think about it twice. The cheap money inflated everything indirectly including earnings (repatriated from abroad when the greenback lost it luster. With savings rate this low, the channel for the cheap money to go has been very limited.

    Now that they put a halt on QE3 ..., you betcha, the stock began to roll over. I tend to think March low will be revisited. The real summer rally, hmmm...., may be coming after we get retail sales, and housing market reports later this month it they can confirm current events are only a soft patch. On the tech front, Oracle's shaking power needs to be respected too as it first reports to the Street in June.
    Jun 9, 2011. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Fredriksen Is Bearish on Shipping but Sees Opportunity [View article]
    The good news is that short term interest rate has not come up quickly as the economy sank again, which should buy some time for FRO to get rid of excessive inventory.
    Jun 8, 2011. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons the Markets Have Further to Fall [View article]
    Very nice analysis Bret! One more thing I'd like to bring up here is the dire unemployment picture. No matter where the Fed directs the monetary policies, the stubbornly high unemployment rate wouldn't budge. QE1 and 2 only diluted people's purchasing power and weakened the dollar. The unemployment problem is a structural one as the government failed to make any commitment to curb rampant outsourcing practices. The vicious circle continues to develop as next generations have lost interest in core job skills for middle class, which makes outsourcing indispensable.

    That being said, I would foresee a major setback of the market with Mar 16 low closely watched. I'd also like to see whether major market players are willing to mount positions around these levels.
    Jun 7, 2011. 08:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Strong 5-Star-Rated Stocks Vastly Outperforming the S&P Index [View article]
    The analysis is amazing. I like URI, a company with a good business model and operations. The only thing that concerns me is its debt level. The weak dollar policy will eventually put upward pressure on the interest rate. That does not prevent us from short term maneuver. It's also helpful to look at HTZ. It looks like a good pare for long/short plays in different market.
    Jun 7, 2011. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Option Income Ideas With 10% Yield Potential and High Margins of Safety [View article]
    It's an excellent analysis. I've used put selling since early 2008. 90% of the chance I kept my cash even in the free fall of the market in 2008 and 2009, only 10% of my positions were assigned. Yeap, it's a good strategy. However, I would also have to agree with Moozi. At this stage of market rally, the probability of being assigned will be much larger than two years ago. With that being said, market cycle watching may be coupled with this strategy.

    Oops, I forgot one more thing. DAL is an airline stock. The volatile energy market will make your airline holdings a nightmare.
    May 19, 2011. 10:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enhancing Fixed Income Returns [View article]
    Thanks for the excellent analysis and comments. Rising interest rate may hurt equity market as well if look at balance sheets of many different companies. They are somewhat unclean. Covered call may not totally protect downside risk should equity market tank. An investor may scale in bond through different phases, while applying hedging strategies to enhance the Sharpe Ratio.
    May 19, 2011. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment