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Amanda Blitzdorf

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  • Watch the 1,250 Area of S&P 500 as the Fed Abandons U.S. Stocks [View article]
    Hi Jon,

    You made nice call of "Epic Bear Market" on September 20, 2007. People who followed your call had made tons of money by getting out of long positions and aggressively going short.

    Now the pattern is forming, which seems the repeat of summer of 2007 (my blog on our site). Bulls who believe the relieve rally could be trapped in gigantic peak, while smart money sees that as the last window to unload positions.

    What are the key drivers to this formation? You count them. Dire unemployment situation, stagnant housing market, shrinking real American income, and of course, the halt of printing money by the Fed. Greek issues will constantly serve as some background noise. The last and the most important one is that you may see the very first earnings deterioration across the board in the coming July.

    Technically March 16 low and 200 Day Simple Moving Average are the major support levels. These are in striking distance of current price and could be taken out in one major blow (or gap actions).
    Jun 20 11:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing Report: Rough Waters Ahead [View article]
    One major difference this time is that we have cheap money circulating around. Where else money can go? Today's new high adjusted by inflation in real term may about equal or lower than old highs.

    GDP may be only one metrics to assess sales in companies. Nowadays most major corporations have international operations. Due to bad executions, IBM and CAT showed weakness and these issues were punished. But other names like BA continue to shine. Even WMT holds well at current levels. There is a reason for this. Currently WMT trades around PE = 15 while back in 1999 it was 36. By that measure it's even undervalued. Thus people will invest highly selectively.

    I agree we will see either of these sideway move, sector rotation, 7-10% correction to mitigate the seemingly overbought conditions.
    Nov 28 09:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Lightening Up on Stocks for Good [View article]
    Any portfolio allocation strategies will not only consider conclusions out of decades of historical data, but also current phase of market development. Why? History based analysis is more static, not very useful for forecasting purposes, much less for portfolio strategies. We are in a cyclical bull market embedded in a huge secular bear market. We may still have some small legs to run for bulls before major a drop in early fall. That said, I don't agree to "lightening ... for good". It will be more prudent to make appropriate portfolio adjustment during different phases of market cycles.
    Jul 16 05:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons the Markets Have Further to Fall [View article]
    Very nice analysis Bret! One more thing I'd like to bring up here is the dire unemployment picture. No matter where the Fed directs the monetary policies, the stubbornly high unemployment rate wouldn't budge. QE1 and 2 only diluted people's purchasing power and weakened the dollar. The unemployment problem is a structural one as the government failed to make any commitment to curb rampant outsourcing practices. The vicious circle continues to develop as next generations have lost interest in core job skills for middle class, which makes outsourcing indispensable.

    That being said, I would foresee a major setback of the market with Mar 16 low closely watched. I'd also like to see whether major market players are willing to mount positions around these levels.
    Jun 7 08:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Chart Of The Day: S&P [View article]
    We have 21 overbought signals, very close to the top. Today's action is a mini confirmation. Checking our charts, retail, utility, technology, and financial sectors seem to be weakening. We are waiting for transportation to confirm the 5-7% correction signals before increasing short positions.
    Aug 21 11:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Crunch Time Comes And Diversification Won't Help [View article]
    Hi Bob, you posted a nice article. In today's market, stocks move in tandem. But there are some solutions if you really want to diversify. Yes, the economic growth is anemic; yes, the unemployment rate is stubbornly high; yes, European debt crisis seemed worsening. What is the flip side of the fact that more people are being in poverty? There are some outliers to the herd behavior. You see, people are delaying buying new cars, which has benefited the independent parts dealer AutoZone. More people have been visiting Dollar Tree and Family Dollar Stores. These stocks are setting records while others are in slump. If an investor tries to be more conservative, she can explore the bond market. Even muni has had a great run since last crisis. Macro economic forces will kick another leg down to the equity market. August 9 low will be eyed. If broken, the real and dire bear market is waiting for us.
    Sep 6 10:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield Market Underweight Follow-Up [View article]
    I have mixed view on the high yield market. The US economy is pointing to a shrinkage, while the corporate debt load has improved in the last several months. The chance of another mild sell off in the high yield market has increased significantly as the S&P is lingering around 200 simple moving average again. However, the income component will serve as a cushion to any free fall and the comeback will be equally furious.
    Jul 31 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Half Year Report Card [View article]
    Keeping the macro trend in mind, it will depend on the incoming earnings report cards. It is more likely than ever that investors will be sucked in current rally starting from 200 day simple moving average of S&P 500, only setting them up for another big drop. I'd agree we will see the secular bear market in full force after the rally runs out of steam.
    Jul 4 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Option Income Ideas With 10% Yield Potential and High Margins of Safety [View article]
    It's an excellent analysis. I've used put selling since early 2008. 90% of the chance I kept my cash even in the free fall of the market in 2008 and 2009, only 10% of my positions were assigned. Yeap, it's a good strategy. However, I would also have to agree with Moozi. At this stage of market rally, the probability of being assigned will be much larger than two years ago. With that being said, market cycle watching may be coupled with this strategy.

    Oops, I forgot one more thing. DAL is an airline stock. The volatile energy market will make your airline holdings a nightmare.
    May 19 10:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beyond The Current Slump Of Bed Bath & Beyond [View article]
    Chapel, I agree BBBY is investing in new technologies to enhance its omni channel capabilities and point of sale experience. In the mean time, the company also heavily relies on customer experience, “word of mouth advertising”, through multiple channels including digital and social media. It still enjoys healthy margins while keeping their low price strategies in some leading categories. Research indicates that a variety of products they sold had lower prices than AMZN's even without 20% coupon. . .
    Jan 30 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beyond The Current Slump Of Bed Bath & Beyond [View article]
    I appreciate the comments. Thanks for bringing up 20% off coupon. Yes, that's one of their niche strategies in fending off low price competitions. It may hurt its margin in the short run, but it's maintaining and expanding its customer base and gaining additional market share in the household product domain. Don't underestimate brand value and customer loyalty, which will be converted to financial values in the long run. One of the advantages of BBBY over AMZN is its local presence. For example, BBBY has a supply list for each college / universities (even a tiny community college) in surrounding areas. A customer rep may help an unprepared student finish his / her school shopping with one shot (even locate items in person). This is the customer experience they'd like to create and maintain. A lot of their niche strategies will really add up value in the long run.
    Jan 27 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beyond The Current Slump Of Bed Bath & Beyond [View article]
    Thanks for all the comments. I don't have the break down comp numbers at this point.
    Jan 26 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems: 'In The Land Of The Blind, The One-Eyed Man Is King' [View article]
    The market does not follow the data and cash flow analysis. The instinct is how trader interpret them in different ways and move the market in the short run. Today the forced short covering was brought into play the first hour of the session, although it faded along with the market. It was a first try in the bull / bear fight over VEEV with a mini bullish pattern registered. In this fight, prudent traders will not let emotion make their decisions. All material facts, biased or not, will be less relevant compared to how market participants act upon related information based on their convictions.
    Dec 10 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shopping For Women's Apparel Stocks [View article]
    EXPR is good. But their focus is on younger population and more casual side. One thing I do like is their cash flow vs. their debt level. That'll make investors more comfortable.
    Apr 6 03:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regression To Trend: A Perspective On Long-Term Market Performance [View article]
    Great analysis. My conviction is that the crowds tend to challenge the old high. That said, we may need to eye ball the volume when the market penetrate the old nominal highs. We will probably have couple more dozen points to run for the S&P 500 before it turns south. Late bulls will be trapped around mid to high 1500 levels.
    Mar 5 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment