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Amanda Blitzdorf  

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  • Beyond The Current Slump Of Bed Bath & Beyond [View article]
    Chapel, I agree BBBY is investing in new technologies to enhance its omni channel capabilities and point of sale experience. In the mean time, the company also heavily relies on customer experience, “word of mouth advertising”, through multiple channels including digital and social media. It still enjoys healthy margins while keeping their low price strategies in some leading categories. Research indicates that a variety of products they sold had lower prices than AMZN's even without 20% coupon. . .
    Jan 30, 2014. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beyond The Current Slump Of Bed Bath & Beyond [View article]
    I appreciate the comments. Thanks for bringing up 20% off coupon. Yes, that's one of their niche strategies in fending off low price competitions. It may hurt its margin in the short run, but it's maintaining and expanding its customer base and gaining additional market share in the household product domain. Don't underestimate brand value and customer loyalty, which will be converted to financial values in the long run. One of the advantages of BBBY over AMZN is its local presence. For example, BBBY has a supply list for each college / universities (even a tiny community college) in surrounding areas. A customer rep may help an unprepared student finish his / her school shopping with one shot (even locate items in person). This is the customer experience they'd like to create and maintain. A lot of their niche strategies will really add up value in the long run.
    Jan 27, 2014. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beyond The Current Slump Of Bed Bath & Beyond [View article]
    Thanks for all the comments. I don't have the break down comp numbers at this point.
    Jan 26, 2014. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems: 'In The Land Of The Blind, The One-Eyed Man Is King' [View article]
    The market does not follow the data and cash flow analysis. The instinct is how trader interpret them in different ways and move the market in the short run. Today the forced short covering was brought into play the first hour of the session, although it faded along with the market. It was a first try in the bull / bear fight over VEEV with a mini bullish pattern registered. In this fight, prudent traders will not let emotion make their decisions. All material facts, biased or not, will be less relevant compared to how market participants act upon related information based on their convictions.
    Dec 10, 2013. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing Report: Rough Waters Ahead [View article]
    One major difference this time is that we have cheap money circulating around. Where else money can go? Today's new high adjusted by inflation in real term may about equal or lower than old highs.

    GDP may be only one metrics to assess sales in companies. Nowadays most major corporations have international operations. Due to bad executions, IBM and CAT showed weakness and these issues were punished. But other names like BA continue to shine. Even WMT holds well at current levels. There is a reason for this. Currently WMT trades around PE = 15 while back in 1999 it was 36. By that measure it's even undervalued. Thus people will invest highly selectively.

    I agree we will see either of these sideway move, sector rotation, 7-10% correction to mitigate the seemingly overbought conditions.
    Nov 28, 2013. 09:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shopping For Women's Apparel Stocks [View article]
    EXPR is good. But their focus is on younger population and more casual side. One thing I do like is their cash flow vs. their debt level. That'll make investors more comfortable.
    Apr 6, 2013. 03:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regression To Trend: A Perspective On Long-Term Market Performance [View article]
    Great analysis. My conviction is that the crowds tend to challenge the old high. That said, we may need to eye ball the volume when the market penetrate the old nominal highs. We will probably have couple more dozen points to run for the S&P 500 before it turns south. Late bulls will be trapped around mid to high 1500 levels.
    Mar 5, 2013. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Birth Of The Mega Bull? [View article]
    The Oct 2007 high was an all time high back then, meaning that all bulls have to be lured into a gigantic trap before the leg down. Before that happens, the market is waiting for late bulls to catch up and exhaust themselves.
    Mar 5, 2013. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Any More Juice Left In The Junk Bond Market? [View article]
    Taking Ally Financial out of the equation may get a little more balanced view. But our forecasting indicates default rate increase in 2013 may come from non-financial sectors, especially retail and manufacturing sectors, which echoes Moody's models.
    Oct 18, 2012. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Chart Of The Day: S&P [View article]
    We have 21 overbought signals, very close to the top. Today's action is a mini confirmation. Checking our charts, retail, utility, technology, and financial sectors seem to be weakening. We are waiting for transportation to confirm the 5-7% correction signals before increasing short positions.
    Aug 21, 2012. 11:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diminishing Volatility Will Characterize The Rest Of 2012 [View article]
    Thanks for sharing. By looking at our ZIA list, I think the market has been modestly overbought. In contrast to last August, ZIA Volatility dropped significantly, pointing to a 5-7% correction. However, both bulls and bears will be happy in different ways
    Aug 21, 2012. 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Market Movement: Can We Continue To Ignore And Soar? [View article]
    Thanks for sharing. By looking at our ZIA list, I think the market has been modestly overbought. In contrast to last August, ZIA Volatility dropped significantly, pointing to a 5-7% correction. However, both bulls and bears will be happy in different ways.
    Aug 21, 2012. 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Crunch Time Comes And Diversification Won't Help [View article]
    Hi Bob, you posted a nice article. In today's market, stocks move in tandem. But there are some solutions if you really want to diversify. Yes, the economic growth is anemic; yes, the unemployment rate is stubbornly high; yes, European debt crisis seemed worsening. What is the flip side of the fact that more people are being in poverty? There are some outliers to the herd behavior. You see, people are delaying buying new cars, which has benefited the independent parts dealer AutoZone. More people have been visiting Dollar Tree and Family Dollar Stores. These stocks are setting records while others are in slump. If an investor tries to be more conservative, she can explore the bond market. Even muni has had a great run since last crisis. Macro economic forces will kick another leg down to the equity market. August 9 low will be eyed. If broken, the real and dire bear market is waiting for us.
    Sep 6, 2011. 10:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield Market Underweight Follow-Up [View article]
    I have mixed view on the high yield market. The US economy is pointing to a shrinkage, while the corporate debt load has improved in the last several months. The chance of another mild sell off in the high yield market has increased significantly as the S&P is lingering around 200 simple moving average again. However, the income component will serve as a cushion to any free fall and the comeback will be equally furious.
    Jul 31, 2011. 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Selling Puts: Mandatory Option Trading Techniques for the Income Investor [View article]
    Unlike ordinary income vehicles, put selling will for sure need to be executed with well planned strategies. Basically an investor is prepared to own underlying securities. The put premium becomes income only when he/she is not assigned the security.

    There are three scenarios. First, the overall market is trending upwards. An investor will be better off by directly accumulating long positions of the underlying security. Second, the market tumbles, the premium the investor receives will not mitigate the loss incurred. Finally, the market is trading sideways. That is the only time put selling may be brought into play. If you are not sure which scenario current market is in, you may leave the process to professional managers who will quantify that for you.

    The pitfall for put selling in a sideway market is that the collapse of volatility will squeeze the premium. The trick is how the investor can capture the fat premium before the volatility eases down. The investor would want to know more about Greeks. Once again, if you don't know what you are doing here, leave it to professional managers, or stick to ordinary income strategies.
    Jul 24, 2011. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment