Seeking Alpha

Amit Ghate

 
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  • What Seeking Alpha Is Doing To Prevent Paid Stock Promotion [View article]
    I would also hope that you're trying to recoup any funds paid to identified (paid) stock promoters. That would be an additional deterrent to this type of activity.
    Mar 27 12:07 PM | 34 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting A Plug Power Short Position [View article]
    Thanks for the advice, you're probably right with respect to famous authors, but I'm not naive enough to think that my writings will move a stock. Instead, I'm content to get my thoughts out to investors and let them decide for themselves. Plus this is a follow-up article, so no need to be sensational with it and risk burning an audience out.
    Apr 8 03:01 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even Elon Musk Thinks Tesla Stock Is Overpriced [View article]
    >They also have 13,000 cars on the road giving constant feedback on performance, allowing Tesla to continuously appraise and improve on it's battery tech. No other competitor in the world has this much research/knowledge available to them in their EV divisions. None. <
    Not sure about the rest of the comment, but fwiw, Nissan has about 75,000 Leafs on the road. http://bit.ly/w8GiSw
    (But I know, they're a dinosaur ICE company, so probably incapable of learning anything from their experience.)
    Aug 25 09:19 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    You're absolutely right, that was a rookie typo. It should have read $245.5 billion and likewise the ratio below should have been total revenues $142.2 B. I've asked the editors to fix it, but since the ratios are right, there's no change to the message. (Not sure how I made that mistake though...)
    Jul 16 04:29 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Hum Poses Problems For Tesla [View article]
    >This also invites the inference is that much of the reliability and customer happiness that is reported on a Model S is actually due to the heroic customer service, not the stability of the car itself. Failures happen, but when they happen Tesla moves heaven and earth instantly to replace the drivetrain so that it impresses the customer and makes it feel seamless.<

    Personally I think a big part of the "happiness" comes from a self-selected cohort of "early adopters" who were quite willing to put up with problems like the drives, the early vampire losses, the 12 V battery, etc. The question is, how will customers who aren't first adopters react to the same situation(s).

    And on a related note, the notion of peaked demand may correlate to burning through the early adopters who almost enjoy these types of problems in the name of being ahead of the crowd. It may well turn out that the so-called "Tesla owner as salesperson" can't convince non-first-adopters to buy the car (assuming there are enough wealthy candidates available in the first place).
    May 22 09:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting A Plug Power Short Position [View article]
    I'm still short both and they're not doing well. In fact I've had several other missed calls and perhaps I'm the only author here for whom that's true. It wouldn't bother me at all if you use me as a reverse tell, and simply fade all my picks. That's what makes a market.
    Cheers.
    Apr 8 09:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting A Plug Power Short Position [View article]
    FWIW, by "ultimate target" I mean long term target i.e. in a year or two. I'm sure there will be many, many bounces and mini-rallies in between. So traders on both sides can be rewarded.
    Apr 8 02:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Zillow Still A Good Investment? [View article]
    You have a "fundamentals" section and a "conclusion" but I'm at a bit of a loss for what you think Z is worth. Everything you say would still be true if Z were trading at $10 or $1000 -- so does that mean that in your estimation it's a "good investment" at any price?
    May 5 11:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power announces stock offering, -6.7% AH [View news story]
    IMO, the comparisons to Apple and Amazon lie solely in the passion of the stockholders; PLUG has nothing comparable to those other two companies in terms of technology, disruptive business model or anything else. If it's the technology that you think is disruptive, then BLDP is a closer analog (though one should realize that Apple may be a once a generation type stock, not readily duplicated).
    Apr 22 11:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Latest Quarterly Miss Only Reinforces The Fact That Amazon Is Wildly Overvalued [View article]
    When someone points out that a stock should be valued at 97% less than its current price based on peer multiples, you can hardly call that Monday morning quarterbacking. And waiting for a break in the momentum is smart trading. (Indeed I wish I'd waited, though in the end I think my short position will pay off well).
    In any case thanks to the author for a well written and well thought out article.
    Feb 4 02:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Investors Should Expect From A Truly Disruptive Company [View article]
    I should probably elaborate by saying that for various reasons my near term outlook for the markets in general is bearish, so I'm not looking to take on new longs; indeed over the past four months I've significantly pared down my long holdings. So far I've been wrong on that, but I'm hoping it's more a case of being early than of being completely wrong ;-)
    Aug 8 02:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Investors Should Expect From A Truly Disruptive Company [View article]
    There's no disputing that, though for long periods of time one could also have made similar observations about the companies listed at the outset of this article.
    Aug 8 01:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Hum Poses Problems For Tesla [View article]
    FWIW Edmunds experienced the hum and their car is on its third drive:
    http://edmu.in/1njH09U
    http://edmu.in/1jXVvyC
    I discussed the hum (and other factors potentially affecting gross margins) here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 20 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting A Plug Power Short Position [View article]
    Historically PLUG has had negative GROSS margins, which is one of the reasons I'm short. But with increased future sales and a willingness to substitute EBITDAS for actual earnings, longs will tell you that the future is bright, and current valuations undervalue the company by an order of magnitude (i.e. a decimal place). And if that's not good enough, AMZN has proven that the way to find success in the market is to never make profits.
    That said, here are quarterly and annual income statements from which you can see the gross profits (and margins): http://yhoo.it/1g5UQb9 http://yhoo.it/1g5UQbb
    Apr 8 11:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Plug Power, FuelCell Mean [View article]
    Their actual shares o/s are on the order of 130M (we'll get the exact number with the 10-K) and the FD is ~163M (see my article: http://bit.ly/1iHpGJC ). Moreover they won't be profitable this year, they'll be positive on the metric they want everyone to use *instead* of actual profitability: EBITDAS.
    Mar 13 10:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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