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Amit Saraf  

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  • What Did Tesla Tell Its Analysts And Largest Shareholders? [View article]
    Great article Anton! And good call out, we need to hold these executives that do 1:1 phone calls/meetings with investors accountable. Especially if they are giving selective disclosure, which often can come in the form of tone of voice or body language, without the executive knowing it.

    Not sure why the SEC can not just ban these 1:1 calls? Or simply require webcasting for them?
    Jan 20, 2015. 03:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Stocks To Double In 2014 [View article]
    Nice article. Sorry to nitpick: "MoSys where he is now CEO and Chairman. Galileo Technology (sold to PMC Sierra (PMCS) for $2.3bn), Quantum Effect Devices (sold to Marvell Technologies (MRVL) for $2.7bn)"

    I believe Galileo was sold to MRVL and Quantum to PMCS.. But either way, the Perham track-record is excellent.

    From my recollection, MOSY has some interesting technology, and the take-out value alone supports a $4-$5 share price, regardless of current business fundamentals. Very risky, very binary stock profile.

    BRCD I also think has great upside potential, especially with new management at the helm to shake things up.
    Dec 21, 2013. 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microchip Technology Management Discusses Q3 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    !!!
    Feb 10, 2013. 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Should Announce A $100 Billion Stock Buyback [View article]
    Great article, I made some similar type arguments but coming from a different angle.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 24, 2012. 03:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microchip: Value Beyond The Numbers [View article]
    I agree a payout ratio above 100% would be concerning and misleading as to the health.

    But I double-checked, I think the 130%+ payout ratio (on Yahoo Finance) uses a TTM EPS of $1.05 and dividend of $1.40 to get the 133%. However, if you look at the true EPS power of MCHP (say for CY12), it is roughly $1.90, making the payout ratio closer to 75%.

    I think the $1.05 that Yahoo Finance used had some one-time EPS hits, MCHP is much closer to earning 45c-50c/share/quarter on an on-going basis. (dividend at 35c/share/quarter).

    Even if the payout ratio is higher, these guys have $9 cash/share (which is not necessarily a good thing, they could return at least half of that), but enough cash that they can keep a high payout ratio for sometime.
    Nov 11, 2012. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microchip: Value Beyond The Numbers [View article]
    Great question, the short answer is yes, MCHP is gaining market share in 16/32-bit, as recent sequential growth rates of 24%/72% clearly indicate near-term share gains. And YoY rates tend to point in that direction as well. However, I would need some good Gartner/Databeans access to properly model out the share gains, so my comments are more anecdotal right now.

    And also I don't believe they are in any way moving away from 8-bit, as that remains the behemoth and is likely the most profitable. One of the most misunderstood aspects of this market (in my view) is just how slow moving/fragmented/non-... driven it is. So that indicates 8-bit will chug along for many more years, giving MCHP no real reason to move away from it.

    While MCHP is a "technology" company, I would argue investors need to look at it more as an industrial-driven business (at least for the 8-bit portion). So I don't think a core "8-bit" design impacts the 16/32-bit business at all.
    Nov 2, 2012. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microchip: Value Beyond The Numbers [View article]
    Thanks for the comment! I have not read the book in entirety, but I have read excerpts. I will definitely, though, add it to my list.

    And yes on Sanghi, and I have a feeling a modest amount of confidence (arrogance?) is likely useful in a CEO role.

    Nov 2, 2012. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microchip: Value Beyond The Numbers [View article]
    Any comments, let me know!
    Nov 1, 2012. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Valuation On An Ex-Cash Basis Is A Bit Misleading For Potential Investors [View article]
    You have done some great research and thoughts are clear.. I am going to seriously re-think my position tonite.. thanks!
    Sep 5, 2012. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Valuation On An Ex-Cash Basis Is A Bit Misleading For Potential Investors [View article]
    Hi, good question. My understanding is that Apple can not really do this without tax consequences per the comments from the CFO stating the repatriation tax is a major obstacle from putting more cash to use.

    There may be some loophole or something that allows, but I know it is not too common, and this issue of excess cash affects many companies (Cisco as an example, I believe the CEO is actively trying to repatriate foreign cash, but is hesitant solely for the tax issue). I am thinking Cisco has looked at all options.

    These are just my thoughts/guesses on this, so pls keep in mind.

    thanks!
    Sep 4, 2012. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Valuation On An Ex-Cash Basis Is A Bit Misleading For Potential Investors [View article]
    Thanks, and yes, I am being a bit contrarian. I like to think of myself as emulating a bit of Apple philosophy in this position, as I believe Apple coined the term "Think Different". :) Who knows, we'll see...
    Sep 4, 2012. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Valuation On An Ex-Cash Basis Is A Bit Misleading For Potential Investors [View article]
    Great comment, and I fully agree with your thesis and reasoning.

    Also, just to add, Steve Jobs was well-known to hoard cash and I believe Tim Cook and the board are still hesitant to go against his wishes in a massive way. I don't think being shareholder friendly is their primary goal.
    Sep 4, 2012. 02:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Valuation On An Ex-Cash Basis Is A Bit Misleading For Potential Investors [View article]
    Thanks much for the comment, I think this is well laid out.

    I do agree my disclosure I am short is causing a lot of confusion, as my article and short thesis is definitely not solely predicated on the slightly higher PE. There are some other reasons for the short thesis (mainly just being a bit contrarian) that I will try and lay out going forward.

    But you are correct that the best method is to consider both the PE and PE ex-cash with all the caveats. I do think too much focus is being given to the ex-cash value.

    The main point of the article was to highlight a valuation issue I saw happening with Apple over and over again.

    I do believe Apple, though, is a premier technology and marketing company, and will continue to be so for the near- to mid- future, and likely for the long-term. But in my view, that still does not make the stock a buy, I believe that view is more than factored in.

    Thanks for the comment!
    Sep 3, 2012. 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Valuation On An Ex-Cash Basis Is A Bit Misleading For Potential Investors [View article]
    Thx for comment. While a lot of analysts do back out cash when looking at PE ratios, my point here is that I do not always think that is appropriate, especially in Apple's case.

    I think we need to look at why the cash is being backed out to determine if that is an appropriate analysis (and sometimes it is).

    For Apple, I lay out my reasons above why I don't think we should back out cash.
    Sep 3, 2012. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Valuation On An Ex-Cash Basis Is A Bit Misleading For Potential Investors [View article]
    haha, you may just be right, who knows I may be seeking that out soon... I have gotten a lot of flak, so this is definitely a contrarian view. Thanks for the comment.
    Sep 3, 2012. 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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