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Amvona  

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  • Lions and Tigers and Cisco Bears, Oh My! [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read the article and to comment, and especially for your generous remarks – read them carefully and sincerely appreciate what you have written.

    Agree with you completely regarding the statistical size of “value investors” in our society – The Asymmetry is a fundamental precondition for value investors to achieve a better than “average return”.

    Your point taken from “information theory” is a profound one – although understood the principle in abstract, had not yet predicated it as clearly as you have. However, would add the additional point as follows:

    “…the value of a piece of information is inversely proportional to how many people know about it, and acknowledge it…”

    For the truth is often denied, ignored or rejected.

    Feel free to stay in touch.

    Again thank you,

    Greg
    May 19, 2011. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lions and Tigers and Cisco Bears, Oh My! [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read the article and to comment – really appreciate it.

    Your point regarding the delineation between focus and ability is outstanding – thank you.

    Warm Regards,

    Greg
    May 19, 2011. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lions and Tigers and Cisco Bears, Oh My! [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read the article and to comment, and especially for your generous feedback – sincerely appreciate it.

    …believe your investment will prove to be a very smart one.

    Feel free to stay in touch!

    Warm Regards,

    Greg
    May 19, 2011. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lions and Tigers and Cisco Bears, Oh My! [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read the article and to comment!

    Again thank you,

    Greg
    May 19, 2011. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lions and Tigers and Cisco Bears, Oh My! [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read the article and to comment (although not clear on what the comment means?).

    Again Thanks,

    Greg
    May 19, 2011. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lions and Tigers and Cisco Bears, Oh My! [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read the article and to comment –– appreciate the essence of what you are saying about the value.

    Feel free to stay in touch

    Best Wishes,

    Greg
    May 19, 2011. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lions and Tigers and Cisco Bears, Oh My! [View article]
    rrrparker,

    Thank you for taking the time to read the article and to comment – very good points - certainly agree.

    Feel free to stay in touch!

    Again thanks,

    Greg
    May 19, 2011. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lions and Tigers and Cisco Bears, Oh My! [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read the article and to comment – and above all thank you for your kind words – sincerely appreciate it.

    Your point regarding the pricing reaching the lows of the financial crisis are correct – had thought of noting that point in the article (but it was already mentioned in the previous article).

    Agree that psychology (or sociology) is playing a huge role here.

    Feel free to stay in touch!

    Again thanks,

    Greg
    May 19, 2011. 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Force Protection: Moving From Speculation to Investment [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read the article and also for your kind words. It appears NAV may be the recipient (announced after the article was written).

    The “speculative” aspects of the article, which includes the apparent award, are conjecture, and were not used in the analysis of the company’s value, or the suggestion to purchase the shares.

    Again thank you for the thoughtful and intelligent feedback and for bringing the NAV award to our attention.

    Best Wishes,

    Greg
    May 6, 2011. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Force Protection: Moving From Speculation to Investment [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read the article and for your feedback!


    Greg
    May 6, 2011. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cisco Could Be the Cornerstone of Your Portfolio [View article]
    Ricard,

    Enjoyed reading your points - very insightful.


    thanks,

    Greg
    May 5, 2011. 06:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cisco Could Be the Cornerstone of Your Portfolio [View article]
    Adam,

    Good article - enjoyed reading it!


    thanks.
    May 4, 2011. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Must Speculate, Consider Force Protection Inc. [View article]
    Thank you for reading the article and taking the time to comment.

    To clarify:

    "If the non-cash part of the share price is $2.27, the “shareholder” would receive 176.5% of this "net-net" asset value post acquisition."

    ….confused by your comment “…it may reasonably hypothetically be viewed as distributed and no longer part of net current assets…”

    There has been no declaration of a dividend, or other intent to distribute this capital that we are aware of?

    We agree with your comment “no consistent or long-term average quantitative moat…”, and is one of the primary reasons we classify the issue as “speculative” (pt. 4 under “why we categorize Force Protection as “speculative”)

    From the article:

    “Future earnings power does not hinge on consistent, growing demand, but rather a few large contracts which they may or may not win - making the future earnings picture very hard to discern - and speculative.”

    We think the margin of safety is adequate in the 4’s for the reasons enumerated in the article. In the 2’s, the effective purchase price (less cash) is somewhere in the 60-70 mln. range. We think that FRPT as a profitable, billion dollar company is unlikely to be priced in that range – but if it were, of course, we would be buying.

    Hope this helps and feel free to stay in touch!
    Apr 17, 2011. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lost Money on Cisco: Why We're Not Worried [View article]
    Not worried. The article references a multi-year time horizon, not multi-day. It is hard to imagine an investment, with a time horizon of less than a year.

    Investment is seperate from speculation, which is most often associated with high activity. Neither “speculation” nor this type of “trading” is suggested in the article.

    here are further thoughts on the topic:

    www.amvona.com/blog/in...

    It might be worth considering that the company:

    a) Is a clear market leader
    b) Has averaged a healthy 23.3% Operating Margin over the last five years
    c) Has grown gross revenue 41% during the same period, including years of deep recession.

    Have yet to lose a night of sleep over the stock price, which at any moment is what someone else thinks it’s worth – only matters if you’re interested in selling at that time - would not be interested in selling a company with CSCO’s characteristics.

    If the company does “print in the 16s” today or tomorrow…, does it diminish the characteristics that are described in this response, or in the article above? Because “the market” says it is worth $16 on March 17th, 2011 or March 18th, 2011, does that make the stock worth that number?

    Or is that price merely what someone is willing to buy or sell it for on a day when the world’s third largest economy is literally in 'meltdown' - that is to say at a time we appear to be witnessing one of the worst natural and nuclear disasters of all time and the related market gyrations? In such a case, reference to a benchmark, such as the S & P 500 is also useful.

    Does a sound analysis of its qualitative and quantitative factors not determine the value? (Which can vary widely and is somewhat subjective). Can the investor not determine in his or her own mind what price is “fair” for the value – if the investor is comfortable with that number, why would they care what others think?
    Mar 17, 2011. 06:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lost Money on Cisco: Why We're Not Worried [View article]
    Thank you so much for taking the time to read the post and to comment. I really appreciate your thoughtful comments and will consider them carefully.

    Feel free to stay in touch.
    Feb 23, 2011. 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
232 Comments
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