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Amvona

 
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  • Lions and Tigers and Cisco Bears, Oh My! [View article]
    Thank you for your comment.

    We are still buying CSCO.

    Here are a few points to consider:

    Is it possible that a determination that someone “paid too much” is premature if just two fiscal quarters have elapsed? Don’t truly great investments span many years, or even decades? (a point made in the original CSCO article).

    In the AAPL example you provide on your bio, if you purchased AAPL at 23, it may have seemed like a good idea to sell at $120, but the value of the shares would have tripled from there if it were held only two more years (thus amplifying the overall return from 23 exponentially).

    In this example two years seems like a very short time to triple an investments value, yet your original investment at 23 took far longer to get to 120? Yet, there are no complaints, because of the benefits of now looking “back”. You mention on your Bio that this was your “best investment so far”, but with a) a little patience and b) depending on the amount originally invested, it may have been the “only” one you needed.

    Should buying a stock at “the” bottom be the objective? Is trying to do something that is impossible on a consistent basis a good use of time?
    Does the price of the shares on any given day (what other people think it’s worth) change the value of the company?

    Is there a difference between price and value?

    Thank you also for sharing your thoughts on the other points.


    Again Thank You,

    Greg
    amvona.com
    Jun 20, 2011. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lions and Tigers and Cisco Bears, Oh My! [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read the article and to comment.

    Not convinced that intellectual capital is necessarily the differentiator in business. There are many ways to investigate and become familiar with management - carefully analyzing the financials is fact one of those ways. For example, if management were truly incompetent, it would be difficult to consistently grow revenues and sustain a high operating margin.

    CSCO and XOM are very different companies. Here are a few thoughts:

    - XOM has no characteristics of a value oriented investments (large premium already being paid for ownership)
    - XOM is about half as profitable as CSCO
    - Given economies of scale, at what calculus do you think a 405 bln. company can grow in the future?
    - XOM debt exceeds cash by about 30 pts.
    - XOM, unlike CSCO has quite a volatile earnings picture over the last five years and has NOT consistently grown revenue or earnings.

    We think both firms are likely to be around in the next ten years, however, we think CSCO will likely provide the investor today with a superior return over XOM.

    Sincerely,

    Greg
    www.amvona.com/
    May 20, 2011. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lions and Tigers and Cisco Bears, Oh My! [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read the article and to comment – and above all thank you for your kind words – sincerely appreciate it.

    Your point regarding the pricing reaching the lows of the financial crisis are correct – had thought of noting that point in the article (but it was already mentioned in the previous article).

    Agree that psychology (or sociology) is playing a huge role here.

    Feel free to stay in touch!

    Again thanks,

    Greg
    May 19, 2011. 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cisco Could Be the Cornerstone of Your Portfolio [View article]
    Ricard,

    Enjoyed reading your points - very insightful.


    thanks,

    Greg
    May 5, 2011. 06:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cisco Could Be the Cornerstone of Your Portfolio [View article]
    Adam,

    Good article - enjoyed reading it!


    thanks.
    May 4, 2011. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lost Money on Cisco: Why We're Not Worried [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to comment

    the key is to ALWAYS think for yourself - otherwise, don't worry to much about the unrealized loss, you'll get it back - time is best spent in studying the financials and quiet reflection - not following analysts...


    Greg
    Feb 14, 2011. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lost Money on Cisco: Why We're Not Worried [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to comment.

    The points you make are very good.

    …can not tell you “who” is buying, but one possible “why” is the information provided above in the article…

    …perhaps you can expand on the $20.8 figure, would like to learn more…

    Again Thank You and feel free to stay in touch.

    … if you’re interested, you can view the unedited (by SA) article here:

    www.amvona.com/blog/in...

    Warm Regards,

    Greg
    Feb 13, 2011. 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lost Money on Cisco: Why We're Not Worried [View article]
    Hope to not come across as “chart readers”

    The percentage of investor “assets” received is precisely zero... receive no pay.

    Far from “throwing it away” the investors annual returns are greater than 75%, which they are ok with…

    Since much of the advice and related rational are published online (with a date), anyone can research the track record.

    It is a bit of a misnomer to speak of “losing” money. Since no positions were sold there were no real losses - obviously the thinking is that there will be a substantial gain – time will tell if the track record continues – perhaps the above return has been luck... time and the investors will decide.
    Feb 13, 2011. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lost Money on Cisco: Why We're Not Worried [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to comment.

    …actually had a chance to read your comments before publishing on SA this morning, from the other articles you published your comment on.

    Your points are outstanding and worthy of careful consideration.

    They do not however undermine the validity of the comment from the article that you point out. Further, as other responders to your previous comment posts pointed out (including a former engineer from CSCO) the stock options may not be as prevalent as thought or indicated, and apparently the practice has been curtailed.

    ….do not agree with generous stock options, the ideal is when management and employees are willing to buy shares at market – that would be best – and agree, the schema can be used as a wealth transfer mechanism when abused – am not convinced however that that is what is happening here.

    Given what happened during the tech. bubble, and in particular to CSCO’s valuation (along with so many others), and the related splits, it is hard to envision what else CSCO’s management could do under the circumstances of the times as they are, and their large cash position.

    …willing to assume the best for now.

    Again Thank You and feel free to stay in touch.

    Warm Regards,

    Greg
    Feb 13, 2011. 03:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lost Money on Cisco: Why We're Not Worried [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to comment.

    You could be right that Mr. Chambers doesn't want to pay a dividend, one of the analysts on the CC asked about a date, but he gave no details... he does seem reluctant.

    Dividends are tricky. if a company pays them it is a way of saying the shareholders can do just as good as management at allocating the capital - it is a type of fairness / humility on the part of the management team.

    Also, lots of undisbursed cash, can disguise missteps - money has a way of covering over problems, and sometimes, causing a sort of "rest on your laurels" approach to management.

    Yet on the other hand, a dividend is a second tax on the already tax earnings of the owners of the company - i.e. shareholders - if it's a great company with consistent earnings and growth - maybe it is better to leave the cash in the company? Particularly if the management has an aptitude for allocating it that is at least as good as the average share holder?

    ...don’t have a strong opinion one way or another here.

    Again Thank You and feel free to stay in touch.


    Warm Wishes,

    Greg
    Feb 13, 2011. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Skechers and the Market's Strange Reaction to Sterne Agee [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to comment on the article - your comments are very meaningful to me..

    You might want to check out the original post on the Amvona.com blog at:

    www.amvona.com/blog/in...

    Some important elements were edited out by SA for some odd reason?
    Dec 22, 2010. 09:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Skechers Maintain Its Footing? [View article]
    David,

    Thanks for the article. You migth also like this post:

    www.amvona.com/blog/tw...

    Greg
    Amvona.com
    Nov 18, 2010. 06:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street's Not Acknowledging Western Digital's Potential [View article]
    The management team is solid and intelligent, it's hard to imagine a scenario - after 40 years of successful operation where they mis an obvious trend, that is so much in plain sight of everyone else. Not saying its impossible, but their efficiently manage operation belies intelligent decisions. Typically companies that mis obvious trends are also not well managed - the two go hand in hand.

    just a thought - but certainly could be wrong.
    Oct 22, 2010. 08:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Digital: Seasonality in Share Prices [View article]
    thanks for the kind comments on the article.
    Sep 22, 2010. 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Digital: Seasonality in Share Prices [View article]
    Thanks for your insight. You might also find the following blog post useful:

    www.amvona.com/blog/64...
    Sep 22, 2010. 07:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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