Seeking Alpha

Analyste de Boston

View as an RSS Feed
View Analyste de Boston's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Institutional Investors Don't Hold All The Cards, Take Advantage Of Your Flexibility [View article]
    Shouldn't this be called an ILLIQUIDITY-bias strategy? (Your name gets it backwards.)

    "...returns {increase} as you move from large- to small-cap companies."
    Did Fama & French control for survivorship bias? As followers of certain Chinese Pink Sheets would note, the devil's in the details: looking at 'winners only' does not accurately reflect most investors' reality. Not at all!

    I like small caps, but they require a great deal more attention & risk-tolerance.
    Nov 28 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: Jump Aboard, It's Now A Rocket, Not A Roller Coaster! [View article]
    Market's been a roller coaster, in fact, and heading south since this prognostication. DOWN -6% since 10/29/11.

    And however they attempt to paint the numbers - the latest news (Congress, Europe, the ME) certainly isn't getting rosier.
    Nov 21 05:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stick To The Portfolio Plan You Had Before Things Got Ugly [View article]
    I'll bite: I believe the ECB cannot bail out Italy, and it's been reported "the central bank has no plans to make its purchase program unlimited." It's very doubtful the IMF will either. But nevermind, with Spain, Ireland and Portugal (and probably a few others) in queue, the Euro woes spell disaster sooner or later.

    Who wants to hold stock through a Lehman X10 Crisis, seriously? "Stick To The Portfolio Plan You Had Before Things Got Ugly" sounds like the old Wall Street prescription for Buy-n-Fold. Retail investors need to realize the 90s aren't returning. Lehman-scale deflationary waves will destroy asset wealth in the years to come, as before, but in ever greater magnitude. In this, the new era of ugly, you MUST think/get defensive BEFORE the #$%& hits the fan, or you will be absorbing -15%, -25%, -45% losses repeatedly.

    So go ahead and hit the snooze button one more time. But bailouts and helicopter drops of money are NOT something you can 'count' on forever, even though it's likely to get us through this week.

    Get a new plan, hopefully one that includes leaving the market after the next PIIG crisis and before the dominoes start falling. Because (you know) nothing's been fixed and this isn't going away without most of your life-savings in the market. Investors without an exit strategy will pay dearly, for sure!
    Nov 10 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Golden Diversifier [View article]
    Asset allocators might want to check Bob Greer's (PIMCO) study by Ibbotson (2003). Optimized, w/ commodity and eqty portions equally weighted, Gold becomes ~5-10% of a prudently diversified 60/40 portfolio.

    Considering Gold (the asset class) an overlap between 'Cash' and 'Commodities,' a reasonable allocation for some older, HNW, ultraconservative investors with income-streams might be as high as 25%!

    Less than 1% of retail investors have any Gold at all. I did the math over a year ago - now Casey Research "borrow" my talking-point!

    Attribution to the Analyste, please.
    Nov 8 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons To Hate Gold As An Investment - Debunked [View article]
    The article is poorly titled; otherwise, this is a fine article and food-for-thought. (I personally believe "Gold is a terrible investment" and recommend older, conservative, HNW investors hold no more than ~25% of this valuable and worthy REAL asset. Gold: NOT an "investment"!)

    One point that has interested me is #2: High Premiums. What is or isn't a "high premium"? Various opinions possible, but I suppose HISTORICAL rates are the best metric: (in USD$) in the 19th C. 90% Gold coins usually had ~10% premiums over currency (Paper) - but much higher at times and throughout the 20th C. Finding retail rates is difficult - that's NEVER what's quoted as "historical POG."

    Maybe you didn't know this, but US Gold Coin premiums are probably as LOW as they've ever been in the last 100 years: look at eBay auctions from the Summer of 2011. +3%?!!! That's cheap, on a relative basis - US Gold Coin trading at or very near bullion prices is an extraordinary event.

    Also: Platinum was trading at a 1% RETAIL premium in the Summer 2010. That is the lowest premium in history, folks.

    In a sense, PMs have never been cheaper (retail) - the story we all missed debating imaginary Bubbles or while SELLING Gold for 40 cents on the Dollar to Cash4Gold scammers?

    Watch the premiums: the premiums WILL rise.
    Nov 2 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Time To Own Gold Begins Now [View article]
    Look at that small fee carefully. Wouldn't your safety-deposit box be cheaper?

    Vuke is right: first whiff of a REAL panic and "your" coins held by the big bad wolf - I mean, 'custodian mutual fund' - will simply disappear...

    A cheaper way to buy Au is APMEX.
    Nov 2 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons To Hate Gold As An Investment - Debunked [View article]
    "Lets have a look at the evidence if you have it."
    GoogleBooks has Price-Currents (Cours d'Or ; Gold Kours; etc.) in Paper Fiatscos but not much earlier than the 19th C.

    None of those Paper fiatscos - except the Pound Sterling (perhaps) are still circulating. That's evidence of Paper's Failure, obviously! There weren't newspapers (or paper) circulating before 400-500 years ago, and the data isn't consistently available. Literally: the Paper did not survive (and little data remains.)

    That said, I place where I've summered was minting Gold ~500 BC : that's ~2600 years ago. If one can dig it up - and that happens - it's called archeological evidence. Gold is Money, still!

    And yes: you can also buy it here: it HAS intrinsic value.
    Nov 2 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold On The Verge Of A Major Collapse [View article]
    "Many Elliott Wave analysts have incorrectly called tops in Gold multiple times over for the last 10 years."
    That's right - the Elliot Wavers are wrong. And discredited. That's old news; you're joining them soon enough.

    "I would seriously consider anything approaching the $1,915 level to be a potential target for a top at this time."
    THE top? No - you're wrong again. Unless we're plunging into deflation within 12-18 months - a distinct possibility, but nothing to do with your "Elliot Wave" hocus-pocus - we will have surpassed $1,900 and/or Gold will be selling at much, much higher retail. Why? Because POG has become a function of USD$ debasement, not significant speculation (yet). Flight from the Dollar has not yet begun here, in the largest global investing market: when that rush starts, Gold will move multiples higher fairly quickly. (I don't foresee that until after 2014-6; Americans still "don't get it"! And they are slow learners.)

    Currently, Gold is less than 0.2% of US households' assets. As an asset class, it's not yet included in most portfolios. And retail Americans have been net sellers for decades! Just wait until the paradigm shifts & they START buying! Gold won't "peak" until the asset class exposure is back near an historic mean, years later. When Gold is 8-12% of US portfolios, the Bubble STARTS - but trillion$ must MOVE first. When ~$4 Tln leaves stocks & bonds for Gold, where does that put POG? And THEREAFTER, as Gold surges towards ~20% of holdings, the Investor Death Spike arrives. Reasonable & unbiased observers will note the Peak is probably a decade away, since PMs typically witness decades-long Bull Markets and this one only started about ten years ago.

    A clue? Watch the premiums, REAL prices: Gold is currently @$1,828 from a better online retailer. Cheap! $1,500./oz (or anything less) is a Buyer's DREAM price, in debased USD$ currency. The CBs and Wall Street will struggle to maintain the false notions of Paper value even as Gold becomes NOWHERE available at their make-believe prices (in this, the fake "free market.") Why does the US Mint charge a ~35% premium, now? When the dam breaks, even that will look cheap!

    The alternative, clutching an obviously failing asset class - US Paper Dollars - or sitting 100% in Paper is sheer lunacy... hundreds of FAILED Paper fiatscos across races, cultures, continents & centuries have taught that lesson. Didn't get the memo? Not got Gold, yet? Still clinging to the American Exceptionalist delusion? That Wall Street will care about you?! LOL Dream on.

    fwiw, I recommended Gold to clients back in 2002/2003, and bullion in 2009. Best unorthodox call(s) I ever made, too! Proof is in the numbers, chief.
    Oct 28 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bursting The Bubble Of The Gold Bubble Prophets [View article]
    >26% of the world's invested assets were in gold. Today it is 1%.<
    Not to quibble, my friend, but:
    As I look at ICI and WGC #s, Gold is LESS THAN 0.2% of US Household investable wealth. Americans are 99.9% in Paper: guesstimating it's practically all US Stocks (>80% US?) US Bonds (>80% US Treas?) and US Cash (>98% USD MMs?) ... you see there are no hedges, there is no real diversification: it's all 'eggs in one basket.'

    Hope and pray for the best - and fervently recite several decades of Wall Street lies to try to keep it all together, LOL Blind and bereft of reason, "it can't happen here!" bleat the dupes. That, to my thinking, virtually guarantees it WILL: the Perfect Storm is soon upon us. I suppose it started in 2000 and won't end until after 2020.

    We can talk about the end of the Gold Bull AFTER sovereign defaults and a new, strict monetary regime appears. First, eliminate the pensions, and wipe out the fictitious Paper Wealth of the US Middle Class. Then, Gold is again ~20% of global assets. This will be a very painful reality for all, unfortunately - but must happen, BECAUSE NOTHING HAS BEEN FIXED. So it goes.

    As the long, slow, and fairly steady (managed) decline of the USD$ regime continues - so Gold shall rise. This is the ever-repeating history in every fiat paper currency before, is it not? Count the hundreds! Reality cannot be denied ...much longer.
    Oct 28 06:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold On The Verge Of A Major Collapse [View article]
    "You did NOT answer my question!!!"
    Question is flawed, Questioner is biased. Next! My response was to SHOW how you're wrong - your premise that Gold always falls in deflation is simply wrong: look at history. (The rest of your Wrongness is more complicated, however. Too much to explain why, here. I'm not a free therapist either, LOL.)

    ",,,let me know how YOU would know if we hit a multi-year top and potentially conclude this multi-year run in the metals,,,"

    I'm looking at a PM price record you don't have, going back to 1800. I'm seeing an Event in 1825, an Event in 1865, another in 1920, and in 1980 (plus a few lesser and apparently uncorrelated (but similar and probably related events.) So why don't you tell me which of those you know something about - can you identify and explain any such event besides 1980? Because - if you cannot - your "understanding" of 1980 is not just suspect... but rather, probably wrong. Why?

    Hint #1: PMs typically form multi-DECADE highs & lows, not "multiyear tops." If you cannot correctly register the increment - it's back to the drawing-board!

    Hint #2: Over that time-frame, PMs typically witness a SERIES of multiyear tops w/ sharp retracements prior to a parabolic Investor Death Spike Event in a cornered market coincident with a Global Credit Crisis and/or radical currency revaluation.

    If "around the corner" means "by 2022" - I'll agree with that. Until then, the nominal Paper Value (in USD$) will rise and fall towards that inevitable denouement (in your treasured but nevertheless false Paper)... call it 'the True Price Revelation.' You really want that tomorrow? Careful what you wish for!
    Oct 28 01:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold On The Verge Of A Major Collapse [View article]
    "Is there some objective perspective or methodology you can apply that will allow you to identify if you are incorrect in your analysis, rather than simply holding a falling asset for the next 4-5 years if the deflationists are correct?"

    I wonder why Paper Bugs always falsely claim "Gold goes down with deflation." History (deflation in the 19th, 20th C.) proves that's not the case. Gold & Silver (Money) don't deflate in Paper Crises - on the contrary, their value goes UP!

    Looking at the retail price of non-monetary Platinum in the USA, 1840-1900, it's not clear Pt was a "falling asset" in periods of falling prices either. It rose and fell with speculation & supply, however: that's not properly called "deflation."

    Furthermore, retail investors are not industrial producers - prices might not fall, for the Little Guy: Supply in mkt disequilibrium could simply evaporate. The PM might be nowhere available at the 'so-called Spot Price' set by the the govt : this is our Soviet future, folks!

    Meanwhile, Gold is UP 5% since this "on the verge of collapse" article appeared. LOL, some people are simply WRONG, too!
    Oct 26 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold On The Verge Of A Major Collapse [View article]
    Gold Seasonality typically ranges -8% > -15%. This move down was faster, but it's still well within Seasonal norms.

    Earlier in the Summer, I also predicted a strong likelihood we'd see this kind of retrace with the warning it might be more like 1973 or 1975. Look at those years, "free gold" in the secular Gold Bull of 1966-80, and understand what PRECEDENT means. This author sounds ignorant, uninformed - I'd bet he's never owned Gold either.

    Investors who think Gold behaves (charts) like Equities are clueless. Paper-bugs screaming "Crash, Gold, Crash!" won't move the market, either.
    Oct 21 06:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Skeptics, Can Gold Continue To Glimmer? [View article]
    Mid-summer, I stuck my neck out and called for a -15% Seasonal Decline (that's well within historical norms, you should know) by November. That call ruffled a few feathers - some goldbugs are in denial that Gold can EVER drop now. (I see their point: and they're WRONG.) But look at 1973 & 1975: Gold in a secular Bull Market CAN drop -25% from April - November, History shows...

    Gold has now dropped -15% from its 2011 Peak @ USD$1,895. It may drop further still .... BUT I sense another round of QE (maybe from the French & German Banksters this time) is imminent. If that happens - and the markets get just ~50% juiced like 2009 - we'll quickly retest & probably surpass $2k (within ~six months.) Call that your 'best case scenario' for Stocks & Gold...

    If not, and SPY & GLD continue falling in tandem for another two weeks, I'll bluntly suggest that Deflation Round# 2 is soon upon us. Major European bank failures would be the scariest Halloween nightmare - and beget a bleak Christmas indeed.

    Please recall how - in 'the Lehman Moment' (worst phase of the 2008 Crash) Gold dropped with Equities - as much, not less! That suggests a -35% > -45% downside this go-round, I'd guess.
    Oct 20 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - Don't Buy The Dip Yet [View article]
    Now looking at Kitco, Gold today dipped below USD$1,610. From Peak Close (9/5-9/6) @ POG USD$1,895. that's a -15% Decline.

    I was not wrong on that call.

    Will we see a FULL -25% Major Seasonal Decline, something closer to 1973 or 1975? I suppose we may. Again, those bigger drops occurred during a secular GOLD BULL MARKET - years before (and far below) levels signalling the Investor Death Spike Event of 1980.

    Is it different this time? Well, the economic cycle and commodity pricing - if not all asset values! - have now become distorted by almost 10 years of "QE" (to label NINJA loans/checks-to-taxpayers what it WAS, anti-deflationary QE back in 2003!) The Greenspan& Bernanke cabal may have gone to far now - with chaotic price mayhem erupting in the near future. The supercycles may escalate and collapse even faster, thanks to technological "improvements" LOL

    Gold & stocks falling hard in tandem signals DEFLATION : the destruction of Paper asset valuations, the imminent erosion of Paper savings, the destruction of business operations ... the only Dollar World we've known for 40-60 years. Hard landing, anyone?

    In the Great Unwind (2000-2021/2), I previously supposed Stage 2, the penultimate leg-down, would run 2014-16; 2011/2 is advancing the timetable. Sure hope they've got a Plan B ready to deploy sooner - if Gold goes to the moon within 5 years, that only means the other shoe is dropping sooner. Sayonara, Paper-Bugs!

    otoh, if massive QE is deployed imminently, the current Gold Dip Buy Target is here & now (soon gone?) - remember how quickly Gold snapped back in November 2008, on the announcement of 'the Rescue Package' for Billionaire Banksters?
    Oct 20 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - Don't Buy The Dip Yet [View article]
    Mid-Summer, I called a -15% downside to Gold and wrote (above) "I suppose POG continues drifting down thorough September/October" ..... SO it drifted down, fell sharply, and drifts down some more.

    GLD is now down -13.4% and hit -15% intraday around 9/28.

    Does anyone doubt POG -15% from that August Peak, by Nov. 1 or within the next 7 trading sessions? C'mon!
    Oct 20 02:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment