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  • Comparative Analysis Reveals Undervalued Asset In Antares' Pipeline: First And Only Testosterone Auto-Injector [View article]
    Happy bayram. Patience is the key. Once people see how close Antares is to profitability the stock price will recover back to where it fell off, possibly heading to double digits. Some people might be worried about a secondary next year but cash burn is shrinking fast thanks to Otrexup sales and we might get milestone payments from Pfizer on the advil gel, or from Teva on Epipen. If QS-T is partnered we might get additional payments and share the cost of the QS-T development with the partner.

    Pass some of that baklava :)

    Oct 5, 2014. 10:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparative Analysis Reveals Undervalued Asset In Antares' Pipeline: First And Only Testosterone Auto-Injector [View article]
    Tappy: Last week I asked Jack whether the Epipen ANDA amendment sets the approval clock back to zero, and he said No, so we are still looking at the original timeline
    Oct 5, 2014. 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparative Analysis Reveals Undervalued Asset In Antares' Pipeline: First And Only Testosterone Auto-Injector [View article]
    Tappy: Thanks for posting this detailed overview of the company.

    Otrexup revenue run rate jumped over $21 Million, which triggered the ATRS rally on Friday. I expect a nice surprise in Q3 conference call on the revenue side. There seems to be quite a few 90-day mail order prescriptions, which is why script count grows slowly but revenue grows much stronger than the count

    Any day we should get the Epipen approval.

    This will really fly back to $5 when management gives guidance on profitability based on Otrexup sales. Hopefully, that is the Q3 conference call.
    Oct 4, 2014. 07:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparative Analysis Reveals Undervalued Asset In Antares' Pipeline: First And Only Testosterone Auto-Injector [View article]
    TDPeterson: You seem to know a lot about Antares products. It is always great to have investors who did their due diligence.

    I can't agree more to what you stated. QS-T will be a major winner. Big market, SC injector beats all others. I didn't write that in the article but I wouldn't be surprised if ATRS captures 50% of injectables and 10% of gels, which means $1Billion+ sales. If it can defeat any other potential competitors on injector technology,or get the first NDA approval for SC injector and become the RLD in Orange Book, 3 years of monopoly is very significant.
    Oct 1, 2014. 07:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparative Analysis Reveals Undervalued Asset In Antares' Pipeline: First And Only Testosterone Auto-Injector [View article]
    Larry: Look at the last 10-15 minutes of trading. Somebody marking the close lower with just couple hundred thousand shares. When Antares releases some good news this cycle will reverse.
    Sep 30, 2014. 09:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparative Analysis Reveals Undervalued Asset In Antares' Pipeline: First And Only Testosterone Auto-Injector [View article]
    Vito: That may only become a possibility as QS-T regulatory pathway signals approval, and some big pharma thinks that Antares actually can capture a big chunk of the testosterone injectables market. According to my calculations, 20% share of injectable Testosterone + 5% of the gel market gets to $441 Million in peak sales. Can Antares do better than that? Why not?

    What are your reasons to make this prediction?
    Sep 29, 2014. 11:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparative Analysis Reveals Undervalued Asset In Antares' Pipeline: First And Only Testosterone Auto-Injector [View article]
    Hi Tappy,

    You are right. I should have emphasized it better that there is a reason as to why Antares is the only company pursuing an FDA approved auto-injector for testosterone, which is thick (highly viscous) and passing that through a fine gauge needle is not straightforward. Antares has several patents on this specific aspect, power and triggering mechanism.

    Unlike MTX (Otrexup), Testosterone device should enjoy some monopoly at least for a while. Also QS-T is more patent-protectable compared to Otrexup.

    Epipen approval (if AB rated) is the most imminent game changer, feels like just a matter of time, maybe couple months.

    Another game changer would be the guidance by management on path to profitability. I expect some guidance from Q3 earnings conference call.

    Script unit volume is increasing slowly but data suggest that many 28-day-supply scripts seems to be turning into maintenance 90-day-mail-order scripts, so even if the unit count stays flat, revenue is climbing as more and more scripts are written for durations longer than 28 days.

    Based on this, I expect a nice surprise on Otrexup revenue in Q3 conference call.
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparative Analysis Reveals Undervalued Asset In Antares' Pipeline: First And Only Testosterone Auto-Injector [View article]
    You are welcome, just sharing what I discover in my research. Longs endured a sharp drop from $5 to $2 as Medac's entrance wasn't expected at all. I expect 2015, even the remainder of 2014 to be much better. I am long ATRS too
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparative Analysis Reveals Undervalued Asset In Antares' Pipeline: First And Only Testosterone Auto-Injector [View article]
    I think QS-T has to be partnered since they need to cover a huge physician base. There is no other company conducting clinical work on testosterone auto-injector as of today.

    Testosterone is not MTX, so it would be much more difficult for a competitor like Medac to grab an off the shelf injector and enter the market. Antares' strength is with the high viscosity drugs, like Testosterone.

    Bodybuilders love the injectable Testosterone and I bet they would jump on the QS-T.

    Let us know more info on Pfizer collaboration, that will start generating royalties in 2016 along with milestones
    Sep 29, 2014. 08:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparative Analysis Reveals Undervalued Asset In Antares' Pipeline: First And Only Testosterone Auto-Injector [View article]
    Factzplz: I agree about the disconnect. Antares already had 20M+ sales before Otrexup, now that is going to increase fast.

    Insiders bought some at $2. It would have been a much stronger message if those buys were all 25K or more like Marvin Samson did, especially from the CEO. Nevertheless buy is a buy, so that was promising.

    ANDA's are just taking too long, thanks to FDA, but we should expect approvals at any moment now, as most of them are 3 years old. At these levels Epipen ANDA approval can easily pop this %50 overnight. Think about it, that will be the first generic Epipen in the market.

    I am looking for a positive surprise in Q3 earnings call in terms of guidance and sales.
    Sep 29, 2014. 08:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Sell-Off Is Overdone [View article]
    You might be right about Hydrogen. Check out PLUG POWER. They are growing extremely fast. As they grow the cost of their H2 fuel cells is dropping due to increased scale, which makes them to grow even faster as the technology gets cheaper and more accessible
    Sep 23, 2014. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Sell-Off Is Overdone [View article]
    Not sure if dividend will be cut but there are as many investors who will be happy to see a dividend cut, and use that money to retire the debt.because debt is one of the biggest bear arguments and reducing the debt may result in share price to recover to $35 range, which should be more welcome than the $1 per Quarter dividend.

    Who wants a $4 dividend/year while their stock drops $10/year?

    SDRL already dropped $9 since early Sept
    Sep 23, 2014. 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Sell-Off Is Overdone [View article]
    JF already owns about 100 Million shares of SDRL. 2 M more would be a drop in the bucket like you say, but, it would be nice nevertheless

    I even appreciate that JF comes out and says that SDRL is severely undervalued and considering buying shares.Many insiders would just ignore stock market fluctuation.
    Sep 22, 2014. 11:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Sell-Off Is Overdone [View article]
    TC: Rig is up 1% after hours. It looks people disagree with your reasoning. If day rates are strongly dropping they can find a cheaper rig to replace, nobody likes burning money. Day rates are weak but some bears try to give the impression that they have been cut in half
    Sep 22, 2014. 10:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill - There Is A Time To Sow, And A Time To Reap [View article]
    CFO was referring to the overall market conditions, but, SDRL already said that the market is challenging, but they also predict that dividend is safe. So, you believe certain parts (market is bad) and you deny certain parts (dividend is safe) of what management has said?
    Sep 22, 2014. 10:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
70 Comments
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