The "real substance" suggests that if Apple's ROIC falls to the S&P average (problematic for many reasons), then it's only worth $8 per share after cash. http://seekingalpha.co...
Compass Diversified Holdings: It's Not The Direction, It's The Holding [View article]
I love to see more coverage on CODI, and this article has some good information. Unfortunately, it also contains a crucial error. You state that "Compass' primary cash flow is from the interest paid on the loans from the subsidiaries." This is false. Most of CODI's cash flow comes from the operating profits of its wholly owned subsidiaries. In other parts of the article you're very clear about how CODI differs from BDC's, but in this case you missed the mark.
I very much liked your calculation of consolidated net asset value per share. I never thought of calculating that, but I think I'll use it going forward– thanks!
The Big Temptation For Dividend Investors Right Now [View article]
That's an interesting move. Care to go into some detail for why you sold INTC and CSCO? Don't get me wrong, I like the consistent 10% earnings growth for CL and 8% for GIS, but CL trades at a PE 10% higher than its high of the last 5 years, and GIS is approaching it's 5-year high PE. Intel has similar 9% annual earnings growth but trades at a P/E much closer to its 5-year low than high, while CSCO is the same but with 10% earnings growth.
The Dow Hits All-Time Highs, But The Truth Is It Remains Cheaply Valued [View article]
Hi Chuck,
Can you say exactly what metric(s) you used to bin these companies? There are correlations among buckets based on current P/E compared to historical P/E, as well as predicted forward 5 year annual return, but neither has clear dividing lines.
Apple: The Dangers Of Using Bad Data To Calculate Only One Metric [View article]
David,
If your model fully accounts for cash, then your model argues that if Apple's ROIC falls to the average for the S&P then Apple is worth only $8 per share ex-cash. You and I both know that that is absurd.
Before you post the same links for the fourth time on the same article, could you perhaps make sure that the pages actually work correctly? Your "Figure 1" on the Invested Capital doesn't display, and so your calculation is not, in fact, transparent.
Apple's Shareholder Program: The Day The Music Died [View article]
In addition to the logical problems with this analysis shown by previous commenters, this analysis has serious mathematical and economic errors. In particular, two "weighted averages" jumped out at me. The articles calculated a weighted average buyback yield, and a weighted average "program yield" that for some bizarre reason averaged the dividend and share buybacks. Listen: share buybacks are additive, not averaged. When Apple buys back $10 billion and then $50 billion worth of stock, they buy back a sum of $60 billion, not an average of an intermediate amount. And when Apple pays a dividend, the actual dollars that they pay out are deposited into people's accounts, not bizarrely averaged with the shares they have and will buy back.
Just because you can do a calculation doesn't mean that the output has any physical or economic sense to it.
Apple (AAPL): FQ2 EPS of $10.09 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $43.6B (+11% Y/Y) beats by $1.1B. 37.4M iPhones, 19.5M iPads, just under 4M Macs. Expects FQ3 revenue of $33.5B-$35.5B, below $39.3B consensus. Buyback increased by $50B. Shares halted. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
That situation wouldn't be liquidation, it would be going private. And that route could be used for great wealth generation.
Apple doesn't hold treasury stock. As with most buybacks, this should simply retire the shares that Apple buys back.
Think of it this way: if we're equal partners in a company and I buy you out, how much of the company do I own? Your logic says 50%. Reality says 100%.
Apple (AAPL): FQ2 EPS of $10.09 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $43.6B (+11% Y/Y) beats by $1.1B. 37.4M iPhones, 19.5M iPads, just under 4M Macs. Expects FQ3 revenue of $33.5B-$35.5B, below $39.3B consensus. Buyback increased by $50B. Shares halted. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
You're doubling down on this fallacy, huh? You think that investors value Apple's cash hoard at $2.50 per dollar? I guess you do, based on your "no good news" comment
Apple (AAPL): FQ2 EPS of $10.09 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $43.6B (+11% Y/Y) beats by $1.1B. 37.4M iPhones, 19.5M iPads, just under 4M Macs. Expects FQ3 revenue of $33.5B-$35.5B, below $39.3B consensus. Buyback increased by $50B. Shares halted. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
Ross: Are you saying investors are so dumb that they value $1 of cash at $2.50 because it's held in Apple's bank accounts?
Danger Zone For This Week: Apple [View article]
The "real substance" suggests that if Apple's ROIC falls to the S&P average (problematic for many reasons), then it's only worth $8 per share after cash. http://seekingalpha.co...
Compass Diversified Holdings: It's Not The Direction, It's The Holding [View article]
Compass Diversified Holdings: It's Not The Direction, It's The Holding [View article]
I very much liked your calculation of consolidated net asset value per share. I never thought of calculating that, but I think I'll use it going forward– thanks!
Danger Zone For This Week: Apple [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Kimberly Clark: An Underrated Teacher For Dividend Investors [View article]
The Big Temptation For Dividend Investors Right Now [View article]
(I'm long INTC)
The Dow Hits All-Time Highs, But The Truth Is It Remains Cheaply Valued [View article]
Can you say exactly what metric(s) you used to bin these companies? There are correlations among buckets based on current P/E compared to historical P/E, as well as predicted forward 5 year annual return, but neither has clear dividing lines.
Apple: The Dangers Of Using Bad Data To Calculate Only One Metric [View article]
If your model fully accounts for cash, then your model argues that if Apple's ROIC falls to the average for the S&P then Apple is worth only $8 per share ex-cash. You and I both know that that is absurd.
Danger Zone For This Week: Apple [View article]
I eventually figured out the proper link for the image should be http://bit.ly/102dVDm
Danger Zone For This Week: Apple [View article]
Pssstt! Pfizer Is Not Executing And Is Overvalued [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Apple's Shareholder Program: The Day The Music Died [View article]
Just because you can do a calculation doesn't mean that the output has any physical or economic sense to it.
Apple (AAPL): FQ2 EPS of $10.09 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $43.6B (+11% Y/Y) beats by $1.1B. 37.4M iPhones, 19.5M iPads, just under 4M Macs. Expects FQ3 revenue of $33.5B-$35.5B, below $39.3B consensus. Buyback increased by $50B. Shares halted. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
Apple doesn't hold treasury stock. As with most buybacks, this should simply retire the shares that Apple buys back.
Think of it this way: if we're equal partners in a company and I buy you out, how much of the company do I own? Your logic says 50%. Reality says 100%.
Apple (AAPL): FQ2 EPS of $10.09 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $43.6B (+11% Y/Y) beats by $1.1B. 37.4M iPhones, 19.5M iPads, just under 4M Macs. Expects FQ3 revenue of $33.5B-$35.5B, below $39.3B consensus. Buyback increased by $50B. Shares halted. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
I guess you do, based on your "no good news" comment
Apple (AAPL): FQ2 EPS of $10.09 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $43.6B (+11% Y/Y) beats by $1.1B. 37.4M iPhones, 19.5M iPads, just under 4M Macs. Expects FQ3 revenue of $33.5B-$35.5B, below $39.3B consensus. Buyback increased by $50B. Shares halted. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
Are you saying investors are so dumb that they value $1 of cash at $2.50 because it's held in Apple's bank accounts?