Seeking Alpha

Anastasios Dimopoulos

 
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  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    In some of my other comments above I have stated my view that Greek banks will need more capital in the future. They may hide this fact for quite a long time again through liquidity injections but I don't invest based on perception.
    Apr 9 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    MIdpoint of €0.22 and €0.49 almost reached today at the Athens Stock Exchange. NBG is trading limit down at €0.364.
    Apr 8 03:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    The bank is going to do a general meeting soon and announce the terms of the recapitalization. The new share price issuance will be most probably under €0.50 since the 50 SMA is €0.98 currently. Soon the stock will be below the highest target which is €0.49 and some short covering would be prudent. It makes no difference to me if the bank shows profits. I don't buy banks. I am moving on to other opportunities.
    Mar 30 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    The article was based on information that was right at the time but as I mention in the comments the recap terms were changed. You can read a new article describing the new terms:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    NBG has no value. It will do more capital raises in the future as losses from the loan portfolio are realized. I think it will drift lower for some years.
    Jan 11 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    The recapitalization terms are more favorable than they should be without this meaning that whoever participates is going to make money. I believe that there will a lot more losses to be recognized for years to come. If as you say you don't understand what happened just stay away from it. It's a certain way to not lose money.
    Nov 15 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    They haven't sold their Turkish subsidiary. I didn't mention the facts you write about because they are irrelevant to the article's quantitative approach. The problems in Greece overshadow any benefits from abroad and this is obvious from the financial statements.
    Nov 15 05:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    Correction

    The lesser of:

    a. 50% discount of the 50 DMA

    b. The closing price preceding the announcement of the capital increase.
    Nov 14 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    Most probably until April 2013. There will be a schedule to avoid the common stock issuance of the several banks happening simultaneously because capital from private sources must also be obtained.
    Nov 12 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    The law was changed and the price of new common stock will have at least 50% discount from the lesser of the 50 DMA or the closing price preceding the announcement of the capital increase.

    http://bit.ly/Tu342M
    Nov 12 08:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    The 50% discount from the 50 day average is the bankers' proposal. It isn't certain it will be accepted. Even if it is, the price will drift lower since investors know there will be a huge discount, so the average will also drift lower.
    Oct 31 04:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    Bank managements return to reality after their weird proposal for Greek bonds guarantees is officially rejected and admit that their banks have no value.

    http://bit.ly/TSLIAM
    Oct 30 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    This came out after I wrote the article. It has a lot less common share dilution for the banks but the interest on the CoCo bonds will "eat" a large portion of remaining profits.
    Oct 16 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    http://bit.ly/WVVUX7
    Oct 11 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    New reports state that the announcement of the recapitalization terms is one of the prerequisites for the next tranche Greece is going to receive and there is a 30-day deadline.
    Oct 10 04:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Short Trade Before Recapitalization [View article]
    Yes, it appears that it could be a safer play. I just think that eventually the difference in relative performance won't be that big. Reports suggest the recapitalization may be completed until the end of 2013.
    Oct 9 04:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on NBG by Anastasios Dimopoulos
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85 Comments
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