Andre Jenanji

Growth at reasonable price, value, long only, contrarian
Andre Jenanji
Growth at reasonable price, value, long only, contrarian
Contributor since: 2015
Company: Andre J
Great article, I also think it has still a pretty long runway before Redbox loses all its relevance, at least a decade. By then, you'd still have Coinstar generating good cash flow, and much, much less shares outstanding. I'm looking closely at OUTR for a starting position, this has been an overblown drop.
Another nice article Sean, this stock has caught my interest, are you still bullish? To me looks like short term pain for long term gains. Addition of the box and ConTV, as well as international expansion could drive huge growth in a few years.
Even 100% in AAPL has little to no risk...
Of course it will, just by judging from guidance. As you pointed out, a big factor will be exchange rates though.
Who better than the CFO to buy this here, as a vote of confidence. Long and strong.
At a point of maximum pessimism, you buy.
Most people should have Berkshire as their only holding.
I'm long too, was hoping for 15$, but with the dilution, I don't see it going past 10-12$. 21$ would be a perfect scenario where the price goes up in the short term, so dilution occurs at much higher prices, AND the plant issues are fixed shortly, so they can achieve the targeted EBITDA numbers. I don't see that occurring so smoothly. There's still significant upside, and is very much worth it at these levels.
Awesome, didn't know, just basing it on Guy Spier's book, they never talk to management before reaching a decision. Of course, every situation is different.
Mohnish never talks to management, let alone getting involved. Yes, that's how you would read it, Mohnish too but he would evaluate it a very low probability of going bankrupt. Not sure if I agree, but in all cases it's worth the risk at these levels, upside is 10$/share.
The growing value disconnect between private and public markets continues. Can't wait to see how it ends.
I mean, the stock has had a good run, and you should have made a ton of money on it. Look at cash flow, not EPS, as the author mentioned.
I have yet to see an article that really tried to put a dollar value to Twitter's business. It's very hard to do though, as you need to have insights on the company's future strategies for monetization.
All I can see now is that it looks expensive by all metrics, yet looks cheap compared to some of its peers. That doesn't tell us anything on its true value though...
Amazing article and analysis. I'm long, and will add to any significant dips before the eventual run-up. Thanks for sharing.
Great list, and it will only expand in the coming year. The opportunity is huge here.
Good article. However, it would be interesting to concentrate more on the competitive landscape and microeconomics that could justify increasing the maximum price to 4$ while keeping customer retention and margins. In my opinion, the company could be successful, as there aren't that many good alternatives, and the dollar "value" would still be present. That would fuel further growth at high rates for a couple of years and justify current prices. But, in the end, the valuation is high, and priced for perfection, and that will catch up. I missed my chance and 45$ and waiting for a big pullback. Thanks.
Poor, superficial analysis. The bond market or China is not an indicator of whether the company will go bankrupt.
Equity would do 200-500% if all goes well. That's why.
Must be the same thing that caused the 80% drop the month before.
Yes, let them sell subs and dilute shareholders to finance capex for the plant. If it works out at the end, it is still a big multibagger from here.
Seems to me like a low risk high uncertainty type play, but not everyone sees it that way. Mohnish does. Upside is HUGE from here, maybe a 10x in few years if everything goes well, plant running and zinc price recovery. It's clearly worth the bet at these levels.
Great article, I agree with the thesis and also am following Mohnish into this, bought some shares recently and planning to add more soon.
I disagree, the stock is way undervalued. You shouldn't consider price/earnings as your measure, as the company is working towards profitability and growing like crazy to do so. Even with that, they are still generating tremendous cash flow from operations, currently at a 2M$ run rate and growing. So by that metric it is trading at a 30x cash flow. Not so expensive for a company with this much potential to grow for many years to come.
Seems like you jinxed it! Now up 6.6% YTD, but I'm not worried, it's a great time to buy.
I'll correct you: AAPL was a buy at 110$, 115$, 120$, 130$ and will be until 150$.
Yet they paid hundreds of dollars every few years for an iPod or other, to listen to music. Now with music being on their device in their pocket, having instant access to the biggest library of music at any time, anywhere, is very, very valuable and people will pay for it. The hardware has been replaced entirely by software.
Very nice article. Thanks for sharing. SNMX is definitely in my watch list.
What an amazingly unique company, which it was publicly traded so I could sink my teeth in it...
Yes from that perspective, it doesn't matter whether the stock is trading at a discount as long as they keep using capital wisely. I'm perfectly happy with that, and even more so as I can buy more discounted shares in the future. Thanks.
They seem to be dodging the question somewhat.
The recent trend has been to do a tender offer on the shares at a slight premium. That would be the best course of action for management to add significant shareholder value. Look at Biglari Holdings and Clarke Inc., for examples of company that announced such tender offers, and those worked out pretty well. I agree that management should do something as the discount is so unjustified and there is a great opportunity.
However, I'm confident that they'll do something significant eventually, but who knows when.
Saj,
I did speak with the CFO about it beforehand, that's why I didn't bring it up again. He said that basically they are buying back some, though it's very little I know. He also said there was some restrictions that prevented them from buying a big chunk, probably because the stock is so illiquid. Thanks.
Agreed, I actually am hoping (secretly) the discount never closes, so I can keep on buying and buying.