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Andrea Bernasconi  

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  • Applied Materials - No Need Of TEL To Perform [View article]
    Hi,

    (unfortunately) I am not an expert in the semiconductor technology, but as an investor and analyst, I see some reasons supporting the stock:

    - the market is an oligopoly and total earnings are less volatile, allowing for higher multiples, across the board (not just for AMAT);
    - the market is growing (increasing number of layers + growing memory and storage demand), benefiting everybody;
    - the stock is 30% below the recent tops, with a 2% dividend yield and a buyback program of around 12% of the market cap;
    - the company has cut its operating costs, increasing the R&D expenses. We can argue on the efficiency of their R&D but to me it looks like a better way to invest.

    You speak about growing the market share, but this is something I have never mentioned. Regarding the disappearance of AMAT/TEL synergies, it is clearly in the price (10% correction the day of the announcement).

    Let me know your thoughts, have a nice day,
    Andrea
    May 15, 2015. 04:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa - Stronger Than Steel [View article]
    thanks a lot for sharing
    May 9, 2015. 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa - Stronger Than Steel [View article]
    Hi, can you please expand on that? It would be very interesting for us to understand better the situation. Each time the CEO writes to investors, he says how important employees are, how much innovation they bring, ...
    Not everyone tells it, so I thought that such an emphasis had a certain level of truth... what do you think?
    May 9, 2015. 08:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa - Stronger Than Steel [View article]
    on raw aluminum there are still significant tariffs (China wants to move up the value chain and reduce production from highly-polluting factories), but I agree that the Chinese government can lift those tariffs in no time if the economy needs a stimulus. Alcoa would be impacted, but less than other aluminum producers, given its higher exposure to complex finished goods.
    May 8, 2015. 12:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa - Stronger Than Steel [View article]
    I don't really have a target price, but I think the commodity is around the bottom, the stock is already beaten down and the fundamentals look solid.... for me it is enough to suggest a buy recommendation: 1) downside protection and 2) many drivers for an increase.
    May 8, 2015. 12:33 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Downturn - Visiting The Permian Basin [View article]
    Hi Dave, hedges can buy time and allow companies to wait for better pricing. 80% of production is covered for 2015, maybe 20-25% for 2016, so there is some cushion. Some E&Ps produce gas as well, which recently dropped less than crude.

    Flexibility q-o-q is exactly what you say, apparently they want to optimize cash-flows, they have the balance sheet strength to potentially wait for better times and the ability to quickly switch investments on and off.

    On the services costs, I just report their thoughts, but your point about buyer's markets is quite compelling!

    Thanks and have a nice day
    Apr 14, 2015. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft, A Clear Value Proposition [View article]
    I think now it is probably a good moment to monetize the long, since I fear markets are getting a little ahead of themselves...
    Oct 24, 2013. 06:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    but there are also some significant negatives:

    - the VEC and GHG subsidies will be reduced or eliminated sooner or later and they accounted for 15% of the revenues in Q1/13 (about $68 + $17 million);
    - superchargers and a distribution platform bring additional costs as well as additional revenues;

    But I agree that the business model can evolve and bring huge revenues, especially if they are good and lucky enough to set a new standard.
    May 28, 2013. 02:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    20-25% is the gross margins. I model the net margin at 15% by 2015 and converging to 10% in 2017. If instead we consider 20% net margins in 2015 converging to 15% in 2017 then we would need only 65% revenue growth to justify the current price.
    May 27, 2013. 11:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    Hi, the Gen III is experiencing some delays, probably will be ready by 2016/17 as well. Of course this could be a game changer but I guess margins would be lower on this model and the development troubles push the equity risk premium up. But I agree with you that it would have huge implications despite being uncertain for the time being.
    May 27, 2013. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    Hi Julian, on the interest rate, this is 1.5% but it is a convertible, with warrants behind and dilution. It has an equity component which is not captured by the interest rate alone.
    On the gross margin you are right but we should take it a little more cautious, since they promised an operating profit for Q1 which was not delivered, for example. In any case, I assumed net margins of 15% which is still very generous. But it is true that they said 25%.
    Have a nice day
    May 27, 2013. 09:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    It would be an interesting analysis but so far Tesla gets little revenues from battery pack and drive-train sales. They just ended an agreement with Toyota that was worth $10 million per quarter and they have in place another one with Daimler for around $33 million in total (this quarter it brought in $6.5 million).
    Of course Toyota and Daimler are shareholders and special deals or even a take-over are always a possibility...
    May 27, 2013. 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    1) "This input appears to be in error. Management has promised this figure at 25% by end 2013."

    they promise "gross margins" of 20%.

    2) Sales-to-capital has nothing to do with marketing effort. It is about R&D investments, plants and factory building, changes in non-cash working capital

    3) Suggesting a 1.5% cost of capital for a Tesla-like company is ridiculous
    May 27, 2013. 09:27 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    http://bit.ly/19gLHLY

    For the second generation, Tesla is promising even greater things. In an interview with AutoCar, Tesla boss, George Blankenship, said that the next Roadster will be something never seen before and will "push the envelope beyond what anybody else is doing."
    May 27, 2013. 08:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    Hi John, thanks for underlying the issue.
    Probably I am not the person who can judge the technology behind or the trends in the automotive industry but I just wanted to show what are the implicit sales assumptions behind today's price. I leave to others the guess of the likelihood of achieving those results.
    Have a nice day
    May 27, 2013. 08:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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31 Comments
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