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Andrea Bernasconi

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  • Microsoft, A Clear Value Proposition [View article]
    I think now it is probably a good moment to monetize the long, since I fear markets are getting a little ahead of themselves...
    Oct 24 06:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    but there are also some significant negatives:

    - the VEC and GHG subsidies will be reduced or eliminated sooner or later and they accounted for 15% of the revenues in Q1/13 (about $68 + $17 million);
    - superchargers and a distribution platform bring additional costs as well as additional revenues;

    But I agree that the business model can evolve and bring huge revenues, especially if they are good and lucky enough to set a new standard.
    May 28 02:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    20-25% is the gross margins. I model the net margin at 15% by 2015 and converging to 10% in 2017. If instead we consider 20% net margins in 2015 converging to 15% in 2017 then we would need only 65% revenue growth to justify the current price.
    May 27 11:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    Hi, the Gen III is experiencing some delays, probably will be ready by 2016/17 as well. Of course this could be a game changer but I guess margins would be lower on this model and the development troubles push the equity risk premium up. But I agree with you that it would have huge implications despite being uncertain for the time being.
    May 27 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    Hi Julian, on the interest rate, this is 1.5% but it is a convertible, with warrants behind and dilution. It has an equity component which is not captured by the interest rate alone.
    On the gross margin you are right but we should take it a little more cautious, since they promised an operating profit for Q1 which was not delivered, for example. In any case, I assumed net margins of 15% which is still very generous. But it is true that they said 25%.
    Have a nice day
    May 27 09:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    It would be an interesting analysis but so far Tesla gets little revenues from battery pack and drive-train sales. They just ended an agreement with Toyota that was worth $10 million per quarter and they have in place another one with Daimler for around $33 million in total (this quarter it brought in $6.5 million).
    Of course Toyota and Daimler are shareholders and special deals or even a take-over are always a possibility...
    May 27 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    1) "This input appears to be in error. Management has promised this figure at 25% by end 2013."

    they promise "gross margins" of 20%.

    2) Sales-to-capital has nothing to do with marketing effort. It is about R&D investments, plants and factory building, changes in non-cash working capital

    3) Suggesting a 1.5% cost of capital for a Tesla-like company is ridiculous
    May 27 09:27 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    http://bit.ly/19gLHLY

    For the second generation, Tesla is promising even greater things. In an interview with AutoCar, Tesla boss, George Blankenship, said that the next Roadster will be something never seen before and will "push the envelope beyond what anybody else is doing."
    May 27 08:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla At $97: How Many Cars Does It Need To Sell? [View article]
    Hi John, thanks for underlying the issue.
    Probably I am not the person who can judge the technology behind or the trends in the automotive industry but I just wanted to show what are the implicit sales assumptions behind today's price. I leave to others the guess of the likelihood of achieving those results.
    Have a nice day
    May 27 08:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time To Reduce Exposure And Take Profits [View article]
    Maybe it is not entirely the same thing...
    Dec 17 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time To Reduce Exposure And Take Profits [View article]
    Nostradamus?
    Dec 17 06:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time To Reduce Exposure And Take Profits [View article]
    I think now the correction took place and it is time to buy back the stock and maybe even go slightly long.
    Dec 17 06:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft, A Clear Value Proposition [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, especially in the last paragraph, I think you express perfectly what I wanted to say. I did not want to really play one stock against the other (albeit being a fund manager I have probably a professional bias, I see benchmark and relative bets everywhere!) but considered selling Apple as a way to "finance" the long bet on MSFT. Since Apple is probably the stock which is most owned and I think it has reached a plateau, it looked like a natural candidate to free some money.
    Oct 11 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft, A Clear Value Proposition [View article]
    Good point. What I wanted to say is just that Apple price embeds already high expectations, which makes it more likely to disappoint investors. I am not certainly debating the effectiveness of their business plans, just saying that probably the market already discounts that!
    Oct 11 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric Vehicles: Front Loading The Filth [View article]
    Many compliments, well-written article, which presents a "slightly" different way to look at the company. Thanks
    Oct 8 11:29 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
25 Comments
41 Likes