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Andreas Hopf  

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  • BlackBerry: Brace Yourself For An Ugly Quarter [View article]
    Fairfax has made various good deals in its area of core competence - the insurance business.
    Mar 26, 2015. 07:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Brace Yourself For An Ugly Quarter [View article]
    At least I am putting figures to my assumptions for most stocks I comment on or write articles about.

    I leave the hot air balloon inflation to others.
    Mar 26, 2015. 07:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Brace Yourself For An Ugly Quarter [View article]
    "This is a throw away quarter."

    Since shortly after Thorsten Heins was made CEO(!), long advocates have claimed that. And luck is always just around the corner. Only that it isn't.
    Mar 26, 2015. 07:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba Begins Taobao Clean-Up [View article]
    There are around 8 million sellers. Imagine how much the GMV will collapse if only half of all fake merchants are removed in earnest and new ones prohibited to join.
    Mar 26, 2015. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Inc. - Breaking Up Is Hard To Do But Profitable - 11% Upside [View article]
    I never understood the negative valuation of the core business. What an oddball view of operations and financials.
    Mar 26, 2015. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba Begins Taobao Clean-Up [View article]
    If Taobao is indeed cleaned up, Alibaba's revenue will fall substantially, as Chinese consumers' favourite fakes would disappear. If Taobao is not cleaned up, the CPC will continue breathing down Alibaba's neck.

    In any case, the BABA investor loses.
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Brace Yourself For An Ugly Quarter [View article]
    QNX licensing contributes only marginally to the already marginal software category (under which BlackBerry subsumes QNX), which was down to $52 million last quarter, remember?
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Brace Yourself For An Ugly Quarter [View article]
    Total revenue down to $710 million
    GAAP loss around $120 million
    Cash down to $2.4 billion
    User number falling to 37 million
    Devices sold around 1.7 million

    Endgame.
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Even The Bulls Are Giving Up On Hardware [View article]
    If you look at the overall picture, BlackBerry at $7 would still be far overvalued.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Even The Bulls Are Giving Up On Hardware [View article]
    I forgot one aspect:

    Canso diluted shareholders by 30.2 million shares.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:00 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Even The Bulls Are Giving Up On Hardware [View article]
    Friday will be the fifth consecutive awful quarter under John Chen. My assumption since January:

    Revenue down to $710 million
    GAAP loss around $120 million
    Cash down to $2.4 billion
    User number falling to 37 million
    Devices sold around 1.7 million

    John Chen could resign after the share price collapse.
    Mar 25, 2015. 07:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Even The Bulls Are Giving Up On Hardware [View article]
    "This is when I became very bearish. I figured that if virtually none of the 80 million BlackBerry faithful would adopt the new phone, that nobody would."

    Under John Chen, the user number collapsed to 41 million last quarter (see the filing). How low will it be on Friday? I would think 37 million at best.
    Mar 25, 2015. 07:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Debunking The Recent Cowen Survey [View article]
    Visit airport electronics shops in Europe. Customers line up for the iPhone 6, not the Galaxy S6.

    Kantar and ComScore figures show that since the iPhone 6 was released, Android market share declines and iOS market share rises. In any case, market share is less relevant here compared to the formidable margin Apple makes on their devices.

    All is well, unlike in Canada, where BlackBerry is in terminal decline : )
    Mar 25, 2015. 06:48 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Even The Bulls Are Giving Up On Hardware [View article]
    He is not a serial poster. It is a MACHINE talking to a MACHINE (with a defunct caps-lock key).
    Mar 24, 2015. 03:35 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Even The Bulls Are Giving Up On Hardware [View article]
    Too few people to make a viable business valued around $10.
    Mar 24, 2015. 03:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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