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Andreas Hopf

 
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  • BlackBerry: Turnaround Fantasy Or Likely Reality? [View article]
    "To me the astonishing part is the 'AAPL intolerance' in longs"

    This is about RiM/BlackBerry, not Apple, Samsung or whatever. Why care?

    When you buy Chevron or Haliburton, you also don't look at what field development strategy Royal Dutch Shell lacked a decade ago and how British Petrol began outdoing them for a while. It is useless information.
    Dec 22, 2014. 05:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Relax, BlackBerry Earnings Were Just Fine [View article]
    What a CEO of a business says is one thing. What the numbers show quite another. Let's agree to disagree.
    Dec 22, 2014. 04:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: The Drowning Man Of Mobile [View article]
    Then, you should contact BlackBerry's partner Foxconn, too.
    Dec 22, 2014. 04:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: BlackBerry Earnings Down But Not Out [View article]
    Big investors sold. Small investors were lured in.
    Dec 22, 2014. 04:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Write On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    As is working well on regular discussion forums since over a decade, one should be able to block certain authors AND certain commenters from view to reduce clutter when logging on and reading.

    Also, an article AND comment like/dislike metric could be easily used to allow or restrict certain features as you suggest.
    Dec 22, 2014. 04:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Turnaround Fantasy Or Likely Reality? [View article]
    I look at the facts. They are to be found right here http://blck.by/TEyBUK

    Besides, what do you expect? This is not a charity dinner toast-writing tutorial site or neighborhood watch end-of-summer barbecue. You cannot seriously expect everyone to share your opinion, unless you are a follower of Mr. Putin or Mr. Xinping. I expect this company to rapidly decline to zero or break-up. You expect this company to perform well at some point in the future. That's all there is to it.
    Dec 21, 2014. 08:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Relax, BlackBerry Earnings Were Just Fine [View article]
    The hot air is outlined in BlackBerry's forward looking statements, with each new quarter: expectations for, anticipated levels, planned strategy, etc. pp.

    Please consider this from the other side of the tape:

    "It is always a concern when a company reports both revenue deceleration and a sales shortfall. It is particularly noteworthy when a company reports a positive earnings surprise despite a sales shortfall. My reasoning is that revenue issues generally precede earnings problems, yet Wall Street is usually more forgiving about sales misses than earnings misses. Consequently, I always view this scenario as a potential opportunity to find a timely short idea. "

    See and read http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 21, 2014. 08:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Relax, BlackBerry Earnings Were Just Fine [View article]
    Because hot air will not help the company to stop hemorrhaging hardware AND service revenue in order to ever make meaningful profits. Since John Chen took over, the company keeps shrinking in all key metrics http://bit.ly/1wBadVf until it will disappear into the void. He already wasted an entire year - to no avail.
    Dec 21, 2014. 06:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Turnaround Fantasy Or Likely Reality? [View article]
    John Chen is Thorsten Heins 2.0, that much is clear now after over a year under his tenure. Enjoy his "achievements" over four quarters http://imgur.com/8TZov3G

    All the while, the Friday filing assures investors that yet another severe service revenue drop to $310.2m is to be expected in Q4 - despite trying to monetise BBM and move customers to BES 10/12 in a vain attempt to recover prior SAF numbers.
    Dec 21, 2014. 06:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Ekes Out A Profit Despite Sales Tanking [View article]
    BlackBerry states in its Friday filing that "The Company expects operating expenses to remain stable for the next several quarters." and "Research and development-related headcount decreased by approximately 34% compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2014."

    Less devices sold = Less service revenue. That is the two core revenue streams from which meaningful profit can be generated.

    BlackBerry states further that "The Company expects service revenue to decline in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015 by approximately 15%."

    Which would mean, since under John Chen's tenure, declining from

    $632,0m
    $548,0m
    $519,0m
    $424,0m
    $364,8m

    to a mere

    $310,1m (despite BBM, etc.)

    Please, think about what that means.
    Dec 21, 2014. 05:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Write On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    "Organize and ship your thoughts…"

    …and then, hopefully, have them criticized by thoughtful and knowledgeable commenters. I see writing and commenting on SA as a peer review process of sorts that can help the retail investor making better decisions. Being here certainly has helped me making many profitable investments, whereas before I was at the mercy of mutual fund managers or salespeople at my local bank branch.
    Dec 21, 2014. 04:30 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Relax, BlackBerry Earnings Were Just Fine [View article]
    Asia Pacific revenue (Foxconn Z3 target market) under John Chen's tenure:

    169,0
    140,0
    151,0 (channel stuffing in May incl.)
    140,0
    130,0
    Dec 21, 2014. 02:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Relax, BlackBerry Earnings Were Just Fine [View article]
    Less high-tier devices sold, less service revenue, less money to deploy to remain afloat.
    Dec 21, 2014. 02:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent And Nokia Merger Would Be Good For Both Companies [View article]
    An asset swap between various players is another potential scenario.
    Dec 21, 2014. 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Ekes Out A Profit Despite Sales Tanking [View article]
    The reason BlackBerry devices don't sell - in BlackBerry's own words from Friday's filing:

    "Revenues in North America have continued to decline due to intense competition and consumer preferences for devices with access to the broadest number of applications, such as those available in the iOS® and Android™ environments…"

    "The Company believes that the decrease in revenues (in Europe, Middle East and Africa) is due to ... a change in customer preferences for devices with access to the broadest number of applications, and intense competition…"

    "The Company believes that the decrease in revenues (in Latin America/in Asia Pacific) is due to the same factors discussed above related to the decrease in Europe, Middle East and Africa revenues…"

    BlackBerry's effectively rolls on its back to show its belly to the competition.
    Dec 21, 2014. 01:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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