I work on the crossroads of design, branding, consumer research and product development. Occasionally, I buy shares of companies, whose industry I understand or work in. However, I take capitalism and its machinations with the necessary spoonful of quality Swedish stone salt.
I have over a decade of experience in the Financial Information Services Industry. I have a Masters in Computer Science and am a CFA, FRM charter holder. I recently quit my job to concentrate on a couple of private ventures and am sharing my thoughts on investment/trade opportunities in the tech sector.
I am a buy and hold common stock investor. Warren Buffett is definitely my guru. He makes the most sense to me. I began investing in the stock market at age 14 in 1970 with money earned on my paper route. What I have done since 1970 is invest primarily in the Dividend Aristocrats whenever the stock market is relatively low. I have never sold a single share of stock except on the rare occasion when one of my stocks was bought out for cash and I was forced to sell.. I keep all of my stock certificates or direct registration statements in a safe deposit box at the bank. I do not automatically reinvest dividends. I only purchase stocks when I feel that the stock market is relatively low. Brown University, B. A., 1978. Below are the 36 stocks in my portfolio.
Consultant in the economics of renewable energy retrofitting - moving energy from liabilities to assets. Passionate student of the business scene, particularly commodities, currently not an active investor. Author, translator, blogger. Trading experience is more commodities than stocks.
I have been investing since the late '70s and managing individuals money since 1985. Over those 25+ years our composite average has compounded at 13.7% per annum, some 3.5 percentage points better than the S&P 500. Three percentage points might not seem like much, but over 25 years it doubles your money. I am currently not accepting new clients, and this in no way constitutes an advertisement.
I am a value conscious investor looking for bargains.
1) Price is what you pay, value is what you get
2) Success in investing is limiting losses when you're wrong, and maximizing gains when you're right
3) Start with business model. Margins reflect value add a company's products bring to the market place. Does the Gross Margin and the Product match? High GMs accompany differentiated products with limited competition that do not compete on price. Low GMs accompany undifferentiated products that compete on price, CAPEX spend, cyclicality.
4) How is the business financed? Be wary of companies with a lot of debt. Great businesses do not require huge debt to generate high returns on equity. There is no achievement in generating high ROEs by levering up like banks, leasing businesses (car rental, equipment rental, aircraft rental). ROA should be telling here.
4) A company's value changes because the NPV of future profits changes. NPV of future profits is a function of changes in revenues, gross margins, OPEX, leverage, taxation. A company's value appreciates when the NPV of profits goes up due to revenue growth, GM expansion, OPEX reduction, leverage (refinancing) / tax (change of domicile) reduction.
5) Markets look forward. Bottoms coincide with maximum pessimism while tops coincide with maximum euphoria.
6) A stock is not undervalued because it is cheap and it is not overvalued because it is expensive (based on traditional valuation metrics). Similarly, a stock is not undervalued because it has gone down a lot or overvalued because it has gone up a lot.
7) Look at market cap when valuing companies. Don't be overly influenced by management projections, analyst reports, share buybacks, cash on B/S, price movements, other people in the stock.
8) Companies with significant debt can go bankrupt. Cash burn typically determines if they go bankrupt before the cycle (for their industry or the economy) turns.
9) Undervalued stocks can get cheaper, overvalued stocks can get more expensive.
10) Keep emotion out of investing. You will be wrong. Unpredictable things will happen. Stay vigilant to anger, anxiety, exuberance. Stay vigilant to thesis creep.
11) Leverage will kill you sooner or later. Companies have large operating and financial leverage.
12) Have a thesis. If the thesis plays out, stay with it. If it doesn't exit. Always have a thesis.
13) Understand the business you are invested in. It's valuation and what can go wrong. Know the business inside out.
13) Don't trade.
14) Diversify. There are many good ideas in the market. Don't put your eggs in one basket.
15) Failing businesses rarely turnaround.
I am NYU law school dropout with an MBA from FIU's Chapman School of Business. He works for a major retail company in the South Florida area. This 26 year old has made more from investing than actually working, but just about everyone who invests makes more money from investing than working.
Independent equity researcher. I run detailed analyses based on external sources to give my best estimate of an equity's valuation. Focus on telecom, oil and gas, automotive and packaging industries. I am happy to discuss the assumptions in my models and analyses, please do not hesitate to contact me. Disclosure: my comments, stocktalks and articles on Seeking Alpha are not an endorsement to buy or sell securities. The information contained within my articles and comments is for informational purposes only and is subject to change at any time. Please do your own due diligence and contact a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.